Геополитический треугольник Китай — Монголия — Россия — новое направление консолидации экономического пространства Большой Евразии
China — Mongolia — Russia Geopolitical Triangle: Emerging Consolidation of the Greater Eurasian Economic Space

Summary/Abstract: This article examines the institutional and infrastructural structure of the China — Mongolia — Russia geopolitical triangle as an emerging subsystem of the Greater Eurasian economic space. The aim of the study is to analyse the structural parameters of the triad’s transit and trade interactions in 2014–2025and to theoretically substantiate the concept of «cumulative integration.» Methodologically, the study relies on the principles of gravity modelling of international trade, computable general equilibrium (CGE) methods, and scenario analysis based on statistical data from the World Bank and national agencies. The format of interaction is evolving from isolated logistics projects to a multi-level architecture. Mutual trade and investment generate a cumulative effect, despite persistent imbalances and regulatory shocks (including the consequences of restrictions on corporate investment in Mongolia). It is concluded that Mongolia, by implementing the «third neighbour» doctrine, serves as a coordination platform for strategically balancing the interests of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union. We propose a hierarchical framework for cumulative integration, built on transport infrastructure as its foundation and the institutional environment as its superstructure. Scenario modelling shows that deeper integration of transport corridors can drive long-term GDP growth of over 5 %in transit countries. This approach makes it possible to test flexible mechanisms for economic convergence in a fragmented global economy, without requiring countries to cede national sovereignty to supranational bodies.

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