Интеграционные процессы в центральной Азии и трансформация роли России: институциональная эволюция, экономическая взаимосвязанность и региональная субъектность
Integration Processes in Central Asia and the Transformation of Russia’s Role: Institutional Evolution, Economic Interconnectedness, and Regional Agency

Summary/Abstract: Integration processes in Central Asia are developing under the combined influence of structural interdependence inherited from the Soviet period, diversification of external economic relations, and the growing autonomy of regional states. The aim of this study is to identify the main stages of Central Asian integration and to determine the nature of the transformation of Russia’s role in the regional economic and institutional system. The theoretical framework of the study is based on the concepts of new regionalism, historical institutionalism, and regional agency. The research covers the period from 1991 to 2025 and examines Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The study combines process tracing, comparative-historical and structural-functional analysis, document analysis, and descriptive analysis of statistical data from the Eurasian Economic Commission, the World Bank, and the OECD. Three stagesof integration development are identified: state-building and externally supported cooperation (1991–2004); institutionalization of Russian integration initiatives and multiple forms of integration (2005–2017); and strengthening of intra-regional coordination and open regionalism after 2018. The findings demonstrate that the transformation of Russia’s role is functionally differentiated: a relative decline in centrality is most evident in trade, investment, and regulatory attractiveness, while labour migration, remittances, energy cooperation, security relations, transport networks, and Russian-language communication networks remain highly resilient. The Russia–Ukraine conflict accelerated the diversification of routes and partnerships but did not result in a rupture of economic and institutional ties. Central Asian integration is developing not through the displacement of Russia, but through a multi-level combination of intra-regional, Eurasian, and transregional mechanisms. The theoretical contribution of the study lies in differentiating between Central Asian and broader Eurasian integration processes and conceptualizing Russian influence as a combination of economic, institutional, social, infrastructural, and normative dimensions.

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