ZAGROŻENIE NIEKONTROLOWANEJ PROLIFERACJI ROSYJSKIEJ BRONI JĄDROWEJ JAKO KONSEKWENCJA WOJNY Z UKRAINĄ
THE THREAT OF UNCONTROLLED PROLIFERATION OF RUSSIAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE WAR WITH UKRAINE

Summary/Abstract: It is highly probable that the armed conflict in Ukraine will cause major geopolitical changes in the future, becoming apparent not only in Eastern Europe but also worldwide. By starting the war with Ukraine, the Russian Federation has become the object of political and economic sanctions from Western countries. Democratic states support Ukrainians politically, militarily, financially and materially. This comprehensive assistance strengthens the combat capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the aggressor's failure to achieve the goals set in 2022 provides grounds for stating that the armed conflict could lead to major socio-political changes within Russia itself. The crisis caused by the protracted armed conflict and the country's growing financial difficulties could lead to a coup d'état. A change of leadership in the Kremlin would most likely weaken central authority, which could lead to the disintegration of the state. One of the negative consequences of internal destabilisation in Russia is the threat of losing control over its nuclear arsenal. The primary aim of this article is to indicate possible scenarios for the loss of control over nuclear weapons that could arise following the collapse of an empire holding the world's largest stockpile of nuclear weapons.

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