Çok Kutuplu Sistemde Somali’nin Güvenlik Mimarisi: Neoklasik Realist Bakışla Dışsal Dengeleme Analizi
Somalia’s Security Architecture in a Multipolar System: External Balancing Analysis from a Neoclassical Realist Perspective

Summary/Abstract: This study aims to analyze Somalia’s security dynamics within a Neoclassical Realist (NCR) framework in the contemporary era, where global power balances are shifting toward multipolarity. The research employs qualitative content analysis, encompassing international organization reports, official strategic documents, and existing literature. The central argument of the article is that systemic pressures arising from multipolarity (independent variable) are filtered through Somalia’s internal constraints—such as its clan-based weak political structure and federal limitations (intervening variables)—thereby pushing the country toward hybrid and fragmented external balancing behavior (dependent variable) rather than a rational and unitary foreign policy. The findings suggest that the security vacuum created by the United States of America’s (USA’s) diminishing military engagement has been transformed—not into strategic autonomy due to internal legitimacy crises—but into an asymmetric “external balancing” foreign policy effort shaped by the influence-seeking strategies of external actors. Although Türkiye’s “win-win based developmental security” model and China’s increasing cooperation efforts offer strategic opportunities for Somalia, it has been observed that these possibilities have not yet translated into an institutionalized foreign policy capacity due to internal structural obstacles. By explaining through a causal mechanism how Somalia, in the context of a weak state, constitutes an exception to the theoretical claim that internal variables have a minimal impact on the foreign policy of small states in a multipolar order, the study aims to offer a theoretical contribution to the NCR literature.

• Details
• Contents