Rusya Ekonomisinde Çevresel Bozulmanın Belirleyicileri: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı
Determinants of Environmental Degradation in the Russian Economy: The ARDL Bounds Test Approach

Summary/Abstract: This study aims to examine the environmental impacts of economic growth (GDP), energy consumption (EC), and trade openness (TO) in the Russian economy. Carbon emissions (CO₂) are used as a proxy for the environment. ARDL bounds tests and Toda-Yamamoto causality methods were applied in the analysis covering the period 1992-2023. The ARDL bounds test results reveal the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship among the variables included in the analysis. Furthermore, the findings indicate that energy consumption has a positive and statistically significant long-run effect on environmental degradation, while economic growth and trade openness have a negative and significant effect on environmental degradation. According to the findings, energy consumption increases environmental pollution, while economic growth and trade openness improve environmental quality in the long run. These results suggest that energy consumption is one of the main determinants of environmental degradation in the Russian economy, while economic growth and openness support environmentally friendly policies. The Toda-Yamamoto Causality test findings indicate a bidirectional causal relationship between GDP and CO₂, EC and CO₂, TO and CO₂, and EC and GDP. Therefore, strengthening energy and trade policies aligned with sustainable growth targets in the future could further improve Russia's environmental performance.

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