O możliwości zintegrowanej weryfikacji empirycznej alternatywnych teorii… na przykładzie teorii przestępczości
On the Possibility of Integrated Empirical Verification of Alternative Theories: Case Study of Crime Theories

Summary/Abstract: The research deals with operationalization of main macro-level theories of crime. Basing on annual data concerning property crimes in Poland in the years 1970–2008, and employing general to specific strategy of modeling, seven structural models were estimated whose specifications rest on the following theories of crime: social disorganization theory, anomie, social conflict, routine activities theory, rational choice, social support, and subcultural theory. Although the initial set of explanatory variables was the same across all the models, the final set of regressors – corresponding to a given theory – differs across the models and so do the estimates. Moreover, each of the seven models passes numerous tests of statistical and essential acceptance. In effect, one ends up in an “oversupply” of hypotheses and practical use of the empirical outcomes based on various criminological doctrines is impeded unless one sympathizes with a given theory. An alternative to the afore-mentioned selection procedure is a unification approach which allows for the inherent uncertainty present while searching for ‘the best model’ because it uses all the information contained in all the models considered. The approach rests on the information theory, whereas the frequentist model averaging enables its practical implementation. This technique explicitly takes into account the impact of all the explanatory variables gathered as relevant in view of alternative theories of crime. Then one cannot raise the argument of bias caused by omitting any adequate variables. In the light of the results obtained in the research, the most significant variables affecting the property crime in Poland are best rooted in the deterrence theory as well as in the routine activities theory. Consequently, preventive and operation actions aimed at curbing crime should benefit from the conclusions and solutions proposed by these theories.

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