Systemy kursów walutowych krajów Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej oraz zmienność kursów ich walut względem euro
Exchange Rate Regimes of Central and Eastern European Countries and the Exchange Rate Volatility of Their Currencies Against the Euro

Summary/Abstract: The article aims to analyze what macroeconomic circumstances support the maintenance of stable exchange rate of CEE countries currencies against the euro. In order to achieve this target, the author presents the evolution of the exchange rate regimes in CEE countries in the period of 1999-2011, as well as the results of logit analysis used in order to reveal what macroeconomic features favour the stabilization of euro exchange rates. The study reveals that the plausibility of keeping the stable exchange rate tends to be higher in countries characterized with small size of economy, tough fiscal policy, and low relation of the foreign capital inflow (including direct and portfolio investments as well as other investments), to official foreign reserves. These CEE countries that maintain stable exchange rate against the euro are also marked by a higher current account deficit as compared with the countries which do not stabilize the exchange rate. This is the result of the real appreciation of their currencies, which implies worsening of the competitiveness of their exports. Under such circumstances the stabilization of the exchange rate may require keeping the reference interest rates at high level. This means that the real sector of the economy is burdened with all the consequences of economic shocks. This in turn can be conducive to prolonged and repeating recessions.

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