Czy w gospodarce usług możliwa jest nieuznaniowa aktywna polityka makroekonomiczna?
Is a Non-Arbitrary Active Macroeconomic Policy Possible in a Service Economy?

Summary/Abstract: The paper deals with the active macroeconomic policy (AMP) (fiscal and monetary), both supply – and demand-oriented. The primary aim of the supply-side policy is to stimulate the growth of the productive capacity of the economy while the aim of the demandside policy is full utilization of this capacity. The AMP is non-arbitrary if its aim can be adequately defined, including the sectoral breakdown, and if it is achievable. The author tries to answer the question whether the basic aim variables of the supply and demand policies, i.e. potential GDP and the difference between the potential and actual GDP (demand gap), could be precisely determined in an economy dominated by the service sector and whether they fulfil the criteria of a deliberate, non-arbitrary AMP. Both the structural and sectoral analyses of the two above-mentioned variables indicate that they do not meet those criteria. This is due, first of all, to the immeasurability of the potential value added in the service sector, leading to the immeasurability of the potential GDP. But even if the potential GDP could be reliably estimated, its value (as well as the actual value of GDP) would be inadequate with respect to the service sector, with a resulting bias in the estimated elasticities of output. Using unmeasurable output variables or very imprecise estimates of measurable output variables as the basis for the AMP can result in false (unjustified or inefficient) spending of public means (eg. within the program of CO2 emission reduction adopted by the EU).

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