The Rise and Fall of Turkey’s Decoupling Strategy with Israel
The Rise and Fall of Turkey’s Decoupling Strategy with Israel

Summary/Abstract: Turkish-Israeli relations have been marked by a paradox for the past sixteen years: while diplomatic relations occasionally erupted into crisis, bilateral trade volume expanded consistently, reaching record highs in 2023. Most current literature explains this trajectory by analyzing either the evolution of Turkish state identity (Constructivist frameworks) or regional security dynamics (Realist frameworks). This article argues that while both approaches offer valuable insights, neither fully accounts for the simultaneous resilience of trade ties and the volatility of diplomatic relations. Through the lens of the Neoclassical Realist framework, this article argues that Turkish foreign policy operated as a bifurcated strategy of “decoupling.” For two decades, systemic imperatives, primarily economic reliance on diversified export markets, sustained resilient trade relations, while domestic constraints such as regime legitimacy and electoral concerns necessitated hostile rhetoric. Analyzing the trajectory from the “One Minute” crisis in 2009 to the trade ban in 2024, the article demonstrates that this equilibrium relied on insulating the economic track from the political sphere. The eventual rupture in 2024 suggests that when domestic political costs exceed systemic economic benefits, the decoupling mechanism collapses, forcing a realignment of material policy with identity-based discourse.

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