Вплив макроекономічних показників на розвиток ринку страхування України
The Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Development of the Ukrainian Insurance Market

Summary/Abstract: In the context of modern challenges associated with military risks, economic uncertainty, and the need to restore Ukraine's economy, insurance plays a crucial role as a tool for minimizing risks and ensuring financial stability for both businesses and households. Fluctuations in macroeconomic indicators affect the demand for and supply of insurance services. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of the consumer price index and the euro exchange rate on the development indicators of the Ukrainian insurance market (insurance premiums and insurance claims), as well as to identify the nature and strength of the relationships between macroeconomic indicators and the main insurance market metrics. The dynamics of insurance premiums and claims in the Ukrainian insurance market for 2004-2024, expressed in both hryvnias and euros, were analysed. A comparison of nominal and real values of insurance premiums and claims was conducted. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated to evaluate the strength and direction of the relationships between insurance indicators and macroeconomic factors. The results of the evaluation in euros and the correlation analysis confirmed the high sensitivity of the Ukrainian insurance market to currency fluctuations, while the influence of the consumer price index appears limited. It was found that the dynamics of insurance premiums and claims in Ukraine from 2004 to 2024 are characterized by nominal growth interrupted by crisis-induced recessions, whereas the real market volumes are primarily determined by currency fluctuations and external shocks rather than by inflation. The study emphasizes the need to account for currency and macroeconomic risks when assessing the development of the Ukrainian insurance market. Further research is needed to identify cause-and-effect relationships between macroeconomic indicators and insurance market development, as well as to conduct a comparative analysis of trends in European insurance markets to deepen the understanding of these influences.

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