School Performance and GDP in Africa: Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 Using Harmonized Learning Outcomes
School Performance and GDP in Africa: Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 Using Harmonized Learning Outcomes

Summary/Abstract: The economic difficulties faced by African countries may have been significantly exacerbated by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused significant disruptions to student learning across the world. In this study, we estimate the relationship between human capital, measured through Harmonized Learning Outcomes, and GDP per capita in African countries based on available historical data. Our estimations indicate that a one-standard deviation increase in human capital is associated with roughly a 400 point increase in GDP per capita, with statistical significance found both for primary and secondary school achievements in the educational domains of mathematics and reading. Given the evidence from the literature on the significant economic and educational impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, this could translate into an economic loss, estimated as being between 70 and 330 US dollars per capita in African countries. We highlight the need for reliable and consistent estimations of school performance in the continent.

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