Przewidywanie kierunków zmian Wspólnej Polityki Rolnej Unii Europejskiej – podejście zintegrowane
Anticipating Changes in the EU Common Agricultural Policy – An Integrated Approach

Summary/Abstract: Each reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is connected with some consequences – for agricultural produces, but also for all the society. The article presents a new methodological approach to the determination of the potential effects of reforms in the EU agricultural policy, which combines the CAPRI partial equilibrium model with game theory. The essence of this approach consists in defining the pay-off matrix of a noncooperative game on the assumption that the utilities of players, and consequently the pay-off matrices are the result of a simulation based on the CAPR model. This has been illustrated by analysing two scenarios of the assumed changes in the CAP concerning the internal support for agricultural producers provided in the framework of the pillar I (scenario 1) and trade liberalization for agricultural products (scenario 2). The analysis of the expected effects of both scenarios considers the changes in the well-being levels of various socio-economic groups within the EU, whereas, the two parties involved in the conflict are European Commission and World Trade Organization. The analysis of the presented game variants shows that the best solution from the point of view of various interest groups is leaving the pillar I combined with agricultural trade liberalization.

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