Conditional Hybrid Organization in Constrained Multipolarity: Middle Powers and System Stabilization in the 21st Century
Conditional Hybrid Organization in Constrained Multipolarity: Middle Powers and System Stabilization in the 21st Century

Summary/Abstract: This article develops the concept of Conditional Hybrid Agency to analyze middle-power agency within a composite system of constrained multipolarity that entails simultaneous great-power rivalry and economic interdependence. Approaches to structural realism, liberal institutionalism, and hedging theory help explain middle-power behavior; however, they insufficiently address the enablers and constraints of agency across strategic contexts. To fill this void, the article proposes a formal analytical model in which middle-power agency (A) is a function of the interplay between institutional embeddedness (I) and structural constraints (C). In contrast, system stability (S) is modeled as a function of great-power rivalry (R). The study utilized a qualitative comparative analysis design, informed by analytical modeling and a most-similar systems logic. It analyzed the selected case studies of Japan, Australia, Canada, and South Korea. The study shows that middle-power agency is not predetermined and is equally available across all policy areas. Rather, it is contingent, fragmented, and at its most powerful when institutionalized coordination and multilateral platforms can counterbalance structural weaknesses stemming from reliance on major powers. The results also suggest that middle powers can have the greatest impact on system stability in an environment conducive to promoting cooperation and managing tensions, with strong institutionalization. Increased competition, on the other hand, restricts agency and limits middle powers' ability to play stabilizing roles. The article develops a new theoretical synthesis that reconciles competing schools of thought in international relations theory by articulating the connection among institutional embeddedness, structural constraints, and systemic outcomes. It engages with the literature on middle-power diplomacy by outlining the mutually constitutive relationship between state-level agency and system-level stability in contemporary multipolar orders.

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