Modelling cross-border risks in China’s new industrial chain along the Belt and Road: Integrating ageing-driven demand dynamics and logistics resilience synergies
Modelling cross-border risks in China’s new industrial chain along the Belt and Road: Integrating ageing-driven demand dynamics and logistics resilience synergies

Summary/Abstract: The purpose of the research was to model cross-border risks within China’s new industrial chain along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), integrating the dynamics of ageing-driven demand and logistics resilience synergies. The research problem addressed in this study is the insufficient understanding of how demographic changes, particularly population ageing, interact with climate and economic factors to influence logistics resilience and cross-border risks in BRI countries. The research niche of this article is the limited crosscountry empirical evidence integrating these demographic, climate, and economic drivers within one crossborder logistics risk framework. The study tested the hypothesis that demographic ageing, together with economic and environmental risk factors, significantly explains variation in logistics performance and crossborder risk exposure across BRI countries. To achieve this, a combination of quantitative modelling and systemic analysis was employed, focusing on the interactions between ageing populations and evolving demand structures, while also considering logistics networks’ capacity to withstand shocks. Findings indicate substantial heterogeneity across BRI countries; regression models identify economic decline and greenhouse gas emissions as key contributors to crossborder risk, while ageing does not show a uniformly negative effect on logistics performance. The results emphasize the need for enhanced resilience in logistics systems and greater attention to demographic factors in policy and infrastructure planning along the Belt and Road routes. The research concludes with policy recommendations aimed at fostering resilient and adaptive industrial systems to mitigate the risks posed by demographic changes and logistical challenges.

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