Structural Drivers of Energy Import Dependency and Fiscal Resilience: Evidence from the European Union
Structural Drivers of Energy Import Dependency and Fiscal Resilience: Evidence from the European Union

Summary/Abstract: This study examines the structural drivers of energy import dependency among EU member states over the period 2015–2024, with a focus on how energy transition promotes long-term financial sustainability. As transitional and emerging economies within the EU face increasing pressure to decouple growth from fossil fuel imports, understanding the structural determinants of energy security is crucial for fiscal resilience. Drawing on energy security theory and demand–supply frameworks, the research employs panel data models to empirically assess the impact of energy intensity, renewable energy share, gross available energy, final energy consumption, and economic development on energy import dependency. The results reveal that the share of energy from renewable sources is the most robust and consistent factor reducing energy import dependency, confirming the role of renewables for reducing external vulnerability. The paper demonstrates that lowering energy import dependency is not merely a security concern but a fundamental requirement for financial sustainability, as it reduces trade deficits and mitigates the impact of global price volatility on national budgets. The results provide evidence-based recommendations for policymakers to prioritise energy-based structural reforms as a mechanism for achieving macroeconomic stability and institutional resilience in a changing global landscape.

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