Divided by Dependence: Hedging and Balancing in the Responses of Hungary and Sweden to China’s Rise
Divided by Dependence: Hedging and Balancing in the Responses of Hungary and Sweden to China’s Rise

Summary/Abstract: China-EU relations enter a new stage marked by increased competition and conflict, due to the declining economic complementarity and growing geopolitical concerns. This article tackles these relations through the lens of neorealism and argues that the EU Member States’ divergent responses to China’s rise stem from the interplay between the type of their economic dependence and their distinct security perceptions. By using a 2×2 analytical model, we compared two EU Member States, Hungary and Sweden, which exhibit two different strategies towards China’s rise and the EU’s China strategy. Our findings show that Hungary pursues a hedging strategy, driven by complementary economic dependence and low security concerns. In contrast, Sweden adopts a balancing strategy rooted in competitive economic dependence and high security concerns. The political leadership in these small states, who leverage great-power competition to secure a margin of autonomy and safeguard their security, reinforces the aforementioned divergent paths.

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