FUNDAMENTAL CORRELATES OF PREVENTIVE DIPLOMACY AND COERCIVE DIPLOMACY
FUNDAMENTAL CORRELATES OF PREVENTIVE DIPLOMACY AND COERCIVE DIPLOMACY

Summary/Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between preventive diplomacy and coercive diplomacy in an international system marked by the proliferation of armed conflicts, great-power rivalry, and the expansion of hybrid instruments of pressure. Its central argument is that preventive diplomacy remains the instrument with the greatest potential to reduce the human, political, and economic costs of conflicts, yet its effectiveness depends on political will, functioning early-warning mechanisms, and the capacity of multilateral institutions to transform information into action. At the same time, coercive diplomacy continues to be used as an instrument of limited compellence through threats, sanctions, ultimatums, or calibrated demonstrations of force, but its success depends on realistic objectives, credible signaling, the availability of negotiated exit options, and compliance with international law. From a military perspective, the relationship between the two forms of diplomacy is inseparable from credible capabilities, resilience, allied interoperability, early warning, and the controlled use of military instruments in support of strategic dialogue. In a conflict-dominated world, prevention should remain the primary normative and strategic option, while coercion should be employed only in support of de-escalation and a viable political settlement.

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