IMPACTUL COMPARATIV AL PANDEMIEI DE COVID-19 ȘI AL RĂZBOIULUI RUSIA-UCRAINA ASUPRA PIEȚELOR BURSIERE EUROPENE: O ANALIZĂ EMPIRICĂ
THE COMPARATIVE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR ON EUROPEAN STOCK MARKETS: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Summary/Abstract: This paper analyses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war on European stock markets, with a focus on the energy sector, using event study methodology. On March 9, 2020, the pandemic caused a cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR) of -9.09%, but for the window [0;20], a rebound of 1.4% is observed, suggesting demand shocks. In contrast, on February 24, 2022, the start of the war generated a CAAR of 2.36%, which rose to 10.96% in the [0;20] event window, indicating risk anticipation and resilience. Markets outside the euro area outperformed (14.89%) compared to those inside the euro area (8.99%), highlighting differences in energy dependence on Russia. The results are confirmed by robustness tests with alternative indices. The study reveals distinct effects of demand (pandemic) and supply (war) driven crises, as well as euro area vulnerabilities. Profitable firms also proved more resilient in the pandemic, but in the war, big size and profitable firms were not the preference of the investors. The findings provide recommendations for energy diversification, flexible fiscal policies and stability-oriented investment strategies in the context of major crises.

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