The Evolution of United States Security and Nuclear Deterrence Narratives Regarding the Baltic States (2010-2020)
The Evolution of United States Security and Nuclear Deterrence Narratives Regarding the Baltic States (2010-2020)

Summary/Abstract: This article examines how, between 2010 and 2020, United States security and nuclear deterrence narratives shaped Baltic threat perceptions, alliance expectations, and assessments of extended deterrence. Drawing on strategic narrative theory and framing analysis, the study argues that U.S. nuclear policy cannot be understood solely through capabilities or doctrinal texts; rather, it is embedded in broader communicative practices through which Washington defines threats, signals resolve, and articulates its role within the Euro-Atlantic security order. Using qualitative discourse analysis supported by computational textual methods, the article analyses U.S. National Security Strategies, Nuclear Posture Reviews, presidential speeches, and senior officials' statements from the Obama and Trump administrations, alongside Baltic policy responses. The findings demonstrate three core dynamics: 1) evolving U.S. constructions of Russia - from cooperative restraint to competitive revisionism - shaped Baltic interpretations of regional security; 2) inconsistencies and contradictions in U.S. narrative signalling undercut perceptions of alliance credibility among frontline allies; and 3) the growing salience of nuclear deterrence within U.S. rhetoric elevated its importance in Baltic defence planning. The article concludes that the credibility of extended deterrence in the Baltic region depends not only on military posture but on the coherence, stability, and clarity of U.S. strategic storytelling.

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