"OSNOVE NA PRVOM MESTU” U VREME GEOPOLITIČKOG PROŠIRENJA: EVROPSKA UNIJA I OSPORAVANI IZBORI U SRBIJI I GRUZIJI
“FUNDAMENTALS FIRST” IN THE ERA OF GEOPOLITICAL ENLARGEMENT: EUROPEAN UNION AND DISPUTED ELECTIONS IN SERBIA AND GEORGIA

Summary/Abstract: The democratisation of candidate countries has long represented a core element of the European Union’s enlargement policy, grounded in a transformative paradigm that prioritises internal reforms and alignment with EU norms, policies and regulations. However, the outbreak of the war in Ukraine has triggered a paradigmatic shift in enlargement policy, marked by a growing emphasis on the strategic positioning of candidate countries rather than domestic reforms. This paper examines how the increasing role of geopolitical considerations within the enlargement policy affects the EU’s conditionality in the field of democratisation, focusing on the reaction of the EU institutions to disputed parliamentary elections in Serbia in December 2023 and in Georgia in October 2024.Although both electoral processes were characterised by significant irregularities, including procedural violations, political pressure, and the misuse of public resources, the divergent reactions of EU institutions, particularly the (non)application of negative conditionality mechanisms in response to democratic backsliding, are interpreted through the lens of the emerging geopolitical logic of enlargement. The paper advances the argument that, in a context of increased geopolitical contestation, the EU faces increased risks in applying negative conditionality, as such measures may strengthen the influence of its geopolitical rivals, especially in states pursuing the socalled balancing strategy. The absence of a stronger EU response to democratic deterioration is thus conceptualized as a “balancing consensus,” whereby the EU refrains from employing negative conditionality in exchange for a proEuropean foreign policy orientation on the part of candidate states, as illustrated by the EU’s reaction to the contested elections in Serbia. By contrast, the breakdown of this consensus, as in the case of the suspension of Georgia’s European integration process following disputed elections, has created space for a more decisive response of the EU institutions, including the use of financial, political and symbolic instruments of negative conditionality.

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