Silahlar, Sandıklar ve Sınırlar: Askerî Harcamalar, Demokratikleşme ve Mülteci Akınlarının Silahlı Çatışmalara Olan Etkilerinin Analizi
Guns, Ballots, and Borders: An Analysis of the Effects of Military Expenditures, Democratization, and Refugee Inflows on Armed Conflicts

Summary/Abstract: This study comparatively examines the effects of states’ defense expenditures, characteristics ofpolitical systems, and international migration movements on the risk of armed conflict across twodifferent periods. Given the changing dynamics of the global security environment, it is importantto evaluate these factors jointly. Utilizing data from 2014 and 2024, the study employs binarylogistic regression models to analyze how differing temporal conditions affect the probability ofconflict. In this context, the analyses are conducted using data from 142 countries. The findingsreveal that, although the examined variables display varying levels of influence over time, refugeemovements by country of origin constitute the most consistent and strongest factor in both periods.The defense expenditure variable, however, yields different results across periods: It is statisticallysignificant in 2014 but insignificant in 2024. This difference is explained by the first periodbeing characterized by events such as the Crimea crisis and the Syrian civil war, whereas in thesecond period technological developments, international alliances, and new forms of conflict havebecome more decisive. The impact of democratic governance on conflict remains limited in bothperiods, indicating that regime type alone is not a determining factor. The study emphasizes thatin the formulation of security policies, regions experiencing intense migration should be closelymonitored, and defense capacity should be considered as a strategic instrument.

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