RIIGI JAOTUSLOGISTIKA ELANIKE TOETUSEKS RELVAKONFLIKTI KORRAL EESTIS
ESTONIAN’S DISTRIBUTION-BASED LOGISTICS SYSTEM TO SUPPORT THE POPULATION IN AN ARMED CONFLICT

Summary/Abstract: The comprehensive nation-wide approach to Estonian national defence involves the entire society, and its purpose is to achieve resilience and coherence in the society and increase our preparedness for crises. According to the National Security Concept of Estonia (2024), only 15% of Estonian people are prepared for a potential crisis. The issue was raised at the parliament’s hearing of 4 December 2024 when a parliament member asked the Minister of the Interior how can Estonia ensure evacuation and logistic support for hundreds of thousands of people if the Estonian Rescue Services Agency only had supplies for about 13,500 people. The research problem of this analysis is as follows: what is Estonian national distribution logistics to support the population in an armed conflict. Our objective was to map Estonia’s distribution-based logistics system of critical equipment, supplies, and services. Using a qualitative research strategy (case study), we base this analysis on a hypothetical armed conflict on the territory of Estonia, and our object of research is distribution logistics. ‘Distribution network’ was defined as the flow of physical goods and information from the state to the people. Data was collected with semi-structured interviews (21) with representatives of local governments (operative level), regional crisis management committees (tactical level), and the Government Office of Estonia alongside different ministries and divisions (strategical level). The analysis was conducted using NVivo15, MS Office and Routific Beta programmes. The study revealed that in case of an armed conflict, approximately 30% of Estonian population (408,200 people) would leave their permanent habitat. We compiled conceptual diagrams for the national distribution logistics for the physical and information flow of seven items of critical equipment and supplies (water, medicine, food, documents, accommodation, cash, and fuel) that were assessed at the “Kevadmurd 2025” exercise.

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