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The Israeli Political Scene and the Next Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

The continuing crisis in government has led to the dissolution of the Knesset and early parliamentary elections in Israel, the fourth in the last two years. Polls do not reveal any possible coalition variants, which increases the possibility for further elections in autumn. This scenario favours Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose position is strengthened by the effective vaccination campaign against COVID-19 and the normalisation of relations with Gulf states.

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The Upcoming Scottish Parliamentary Elections and the Challenges of Brexit and the Pandemic

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

The projected victory of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the upcoming national parliamentary elections heralds the second independence referendum in a decade. The divergent and sometimes mutually excluding policies of Brexit and pandemic implemented by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative UK government and the SNP’s Scottish government under the leadership of Nicola Sturgeon are the key contexts for the coming election campaign. After the signing of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) with the EU on 24 December 2020 and the commencement of mass coronavirus vaccinations, Johnson’s priority is to reintegrate the British union. For Poland, it is essential that the United Kingdom maintains political stability and credibility as an ally.

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Ecology and Growth: Macron’s Dilemma before Elections

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Protection of the environment is increasingly influencing the voting preferences of the French. The initiatives put forward by the authorities, such as subsidies for zero-emission cars or the reduction of dependence on nuclear energy, aim to reconcile economic growth with a commitment to the environment. The current environmental policy of President Emmanuel Macron, although criticised both by environmentalists and business interests, may gain voter recognition and favour the development of French non-carbon technologies.

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Signs of Change on the Hungarian Political Scene a Year Before Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

For the first time in 12 years, the ruling Fidesz and the opposition have even chances of winning the parliamentary elections in April 2022. Unification of the opposition gives it strength, however, the institutional and financial advantages of the ruling party will be difficult to overcome. The government may be weakened by the effects of the pandemic and the loss of membership in the European People’s Party (EPP). The authorities aim to get funds from the new EU budget before the elections. As a partnership with the European extreme right will not contribute to this goal, the formation of a new grouping in the European Parliament (EP) by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is unlikely for now.

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The Palestinian Authority after the Cancellation of Elections

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

The cancellation of the 22 May parliamentary elections in the Palestinian Authority (PA) by President Mahmoud Abbas deepens the Palestinian political crisis and contributed to the escalation between Hamas and Israel. The decision is a result of internal disputes in the PA leadership and insufficient external support, primarily from the U.S. The lack of elections will preserve the current political turmoil in the PA and weaken Palestinian relations with Israel.

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The Biden Administration’s Vaccine Diplomacy

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English

The United States has begun redistributing procured SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to countries affected by a shortage of doses. The U.S. joined the international COVAX initiative and declared it would provide 500 million doses to it by the end of 2022. The goal of U.S. diplomacy is to improve the country’s image on the international stage and compete with China, which uses vaccines to strengthen its relations with African and Latin American countries.

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The International Consequences of the Military Coup in Guinea

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

On 5 September, the Guinean special forces overthrew President Alpha Condé, who recently entered his third term following controversial constitutional changes. This is the third coup in Africa this year. The uncertainty in the country, which is one of the world’s largest bauxite producers, has caused record increases in aluminium prices on world markets and concerns among importers, but mainly Russia and China.

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Ukraine’s Response to the Political Crisis in Belarus

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Alexander Lukashenka has so far been seen in Ukraine as a guarantor of Belarus’ independence from Russia. Therefore, the Ukrainian authorities initially avoided condemning the electoral fraud to avoid weakening the Belarusian president. That have since tightened their positions in response to Lukashenka’s accusation that Ukraine helped initiate the protests. However, Ukraine will not become actively involved in resolving the crisis in Belarus and will limit itself to reacting to Belarusian provocations and supporting EU policy towards that country.

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On the Training Areas of the Union State of Belarus and Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

In August and September, Russia and Belarus conducted intensive military exercises. In the case of Belarus, the organisation of some of them was dictated by the post-election crisis and the desire to demonstrate that its military is ready to respond to external threats. In the case of Russia, these were planned exercises, which functioned as another signal to neighbouring countries and NATO about the high capabilities of its armed forces. Most of the manoeuvres were based on scenarios aimed at Alliance countries.

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The Role of the Economy in the U.S. Presidential Campaign

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the U.S. economy hard, including causing high unemployment. This weakens the incumbent president, Donald Trump, and increases challenger Joe Biden's chances of victory. For the EU, a Biden presidency may mean, for example, an easing of trade disputes with the U.S. and cooperation on climate protection. However, whichever wins, Biden or Donald Trump, the U.S. will pose a challenge to the EU and European companies, which may find it difficult to compete with the high level of support of U.S. companies.

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Intra-Afghan Negotiations: Peace at the Cost of Democracy?

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The peace talks between the Afghan authorities and the Taliban, launched on 12 September, are now the best chance to end the 20-year civil war in Afghanistan. It is possible, however, that the price of peace will be that the Taliban assumes a decisive role in the country, and that the present democratic system of government is dismantled. The Taliban’s position in the negotiations is strengthened by plans to end the foreign military presence in Afghanistan, internal conflicts in the democratic camp in Kabul, and the Taliban’s own growing military leverage. The support of states and organisations for the future government of Afghanistan will be crucial to preserving at least some of the achievements of the last 20 years.

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Devolution in the UK and the Combined Challenges of Pandemic and Brexit

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Brexit and the pandemic pose the two most important challenges for UK domestic politics today. While Brexit policy has been controlled by central-government institutions, the response to the pandemic has been formulated by a number of mutually independent central, national, and regional institutions. Consequently, the national and regional elections in May 2021 have been increasingly concentrating on devolved health and education policies as well as on partly decentralised economic and fiscal ones. In the pandemic context, these policies have become the most important catalysts for separatism in Britain in the last 30 years. In Scotland, the election may open the way to its independence and the destabilisation of Britain as an important ally of Poland.

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№124: The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Political Stability of Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Agnieszka Legucka,Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Although the Russian army has suffered a series of defeats in Ukraine, the Putin regime does not feel defeated and its stability is not threatened. The ability to control the internal situation allows the Russian authorities to wage war with Ukraine for years to come in order to achieve the assumed strategic goals of subordinating Ukraine and enforcing a buffer zone on the territory of some NATO countries. This requires Western countries to take a long-term approach to deterring the Russian threat and supporting Ukraine’s ability to regain control over lost territory.

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№181: The External Dimension of EU Migration Management: The Role of Aid

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska,Patryk Kugiel,Henriette U. Erstad,Morten Bøås / Language(s): English

Aid is seen as a key EU instrument in addressing the root causes of migration, but it has not been decisive for the drastic reduction of irregular arrivals in Europe in recent years. Nevertheless, development assistance has become crucial leverage for the EU in persuading major transit countries to improve their border control. Although this “externalisation” of EU border management seems like a successful approach for now, it is not sustainable in the long term. The Union still needs to find better synergy between migration management and development policy that is not designed to stop migration but to manage and regulate it in a more mutually beneficial way

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№208: Digital Protectionism: Data Localisation

Author(s): Oskar Szydłowski / Language(s): English

In recent years, under the pretext of protecting national security and citizens’ privacy, states have introduced several protectionist measures concerning digital data. The main one is data localisation law, which requires data to be stored and processed in a specific country. In practice, it often serves authoritarian governments in gaining greater oversight of citizens through unrestricted access to and control over data. Furthermore, it has a negative impact on the global economy, especially international trade. The challenge remains to develop regulation at a global level in place of incompatible local regimes.

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New Government in Australia: More Continuation Than Change

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The parliamentary elections in Australia on 21 May were won by the opposition Labour Party, led by Anthony Albanese, who became the new prime minister. The end of the nine-year liberal-national Coalition is unlikely to mean, however, significant changes in foreign policy, including in relations with the U.S. or China. On the other hand, the new government’s more ambitious climate policy may strengthen Australia’s partnership with the European Union.

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Mass Protests in Kazakhstan

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

The protests that erupted in the west of Kazakhstan in early January spread to the rest of the country and took on an anti-government character. The consequences of them include an escalation of violence by the Kazakh authorities and the potential for a further strengthening of authoritarian regimes in the region.

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Military Coup in Burkina Faso

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

On 24 January, the Burkina Faso military arrested President Roch Kaboré and seized state power. The coup was the result of frustration within the armed forces over the inability of the authorities to effectively fight the jihadists. The coup will complicate the conditions of international engagement, including the EU’s, in the Sahel.

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Pro-European Opposition Candidate Sandu Wins Moldovan Presidential Elections

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

On 15 November, Maia Sandu, representing the pro-European opposition, won the second round of the presidential elections in Moldova. With turnout reaching 55%, she gained 57.7% of the votes, defeating the pro-Russian president, Igor Dodon. The president’s Party of Socialists (PSRM) remains the largest power in parliament and its minority government will avoid pro-European reforms.

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