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Intra-Afghan Negotiations: Peace at the Cost of Democracy?

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The peace talks between the Afghan authorities and the Taliban, launched on 12 September, are now the best chance to end the 20-year civil war in Afghanistan. It is possible, however, that the price of peace will be that the Taliban assumes a decisive role in the country, and that the present democratic system of government is dismantled. The Taliban’s position in the negotiations is strengthened by plans to end the foreign military presence in Afghanistan, internal conflicts in the democratic camp in Kabul, and the Taliban’s own growing military leverage. The support of states and organisations for the future government of Afghanistan will be crucial to preserving at least some of the achievements of the last 20 years.

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Devolution in the UK and the Combined Challenges of Pandemic and Brexit

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Brexit and the pandemic pose the two most important challenges for UK domestic politics today. While Brexit policy has been controlled by central-government institutions, the response to the pandemic has been formulated by a number of mutually independent central, national, and regional institutions. Consequently, the national and regional elections in May 2021 have been increasingly concentrating on devolved health and education policies as well as on partly decentralised economic and fiscal ones. In the pandemic context, these policies have become the most important catalysts for separatism in Britain in the last 30 years. In Scotland, the election may open the way to its independence and the destabilisation of Britain as an important ally of Poland.

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№124: The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Political Stability of Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Agnieszka Legucka,Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Although the Russian army has suffered a series of defeats in Ukraine, the Putin regime does not feel defeated and its stability is not threatened. The ability to control the internal situation allows the Russian authorities to wage war with Ukraine for years to come in order to achieve the assumed strategic goals of subordinating Ukraine and enforcing a buffer zone on the territory of some NATO countries. This requires Western countries to take a long-term approach to deterring the Russian threat and supporting Ukraine’s ability to regain control over lost territory.

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№181: The External Dimension of EU Migration Management: The Role of Aid

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska,Patryk Kugiel,Henriette U. Erstad,Morten Bøås / Language(s): English

Aid is seen as a key EU instrument in addressing the root causes of migration, but it has not been decisive for the drastic reduction of irregular arrivals in Europe in recent years. Nevertheless, development assistance has become crucial leverage for the EU in persuading major transit countries to improve their border control. Although this “externalisation” of EU border management seems like a successful approach for now, it is not sustainable in the long term. The Union still needs to find better synergy between migration management and development policy that is not designed to stop migration but to manage and regulate it in a more mutually beneficial way

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№208: Digital Protectionism: Data Localisation

Author(s): Oskar Szydłowski / Language(s): English

In recent years, under the pretext of protecting national security and citizens’ privacy, states have introduced several protectionist measures concerning digital data. The main one is data localisation law, which requires data to be stored and processed in a specific country. In practice, it often serves authoritarian governments in gaining greater oversight of citizens through unrestricted access to and control over data. Furthermore, it has a negative impact on the global economy, especially international trade. The challenge remains to develop regulation at a global level in place of incompatible local regimes.

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New Government in Australia: More Continuation Than Change

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The parliamentary elections in Australia on 21 May were won by the opposition Labour Party, led by Anthony Albanese, who became the new prime minister. The end of the nine-year liberal-national Coalition is unlikely to mean, however, significant changes in foreign policy, including in relations with the U.S. or China. On the other hand, the new government’s more ambitious climate policy may strengthen Australia’s partnership with the European Union.

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Mass Protests in Kazakhstan

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

The protests that erupted in the west of Kazakhstan in early January spread to the rest of the country and took on an anti-government character. The consequences of them include an escalation of violence by the Kazakh authorities and the potential for a further strengthening of authoritarian regimes in the region.

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Military Coup in Burkina Faso

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

On 24 January, the Burkina Faso military arrested President Roch Kaboré and seized state power. The coup was the result of frustration within the armed forces over the inability of the authorities to effectively fight the jihadists. The coup will complicate the conditions of international engagement, including the EU’s, in the Sahel.

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Pro-European Opposition Candidate Sandu Wins Moldovan Presidential Elections

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

On 15 November, Maia Sandu, representing the pro-European opposition, won the second round of the presidential elections in Moldova. With turnout reaching 55%, she gained 57.7% of the votes, defeating the pro-Russian president, Igor Dodon. The president’s Party of Socialists (PSRM) remains the largest power in parliament and its minority government will avoid pro-European reforms.

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Kolejne przedterminowe wybory parlamentarne w Grecji

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): Polish

25 czerwca br. odbyły się drugie z kolei przedterminowe wybory do Parlamentu Grecji. Wygrała je centroprawicowa i proeuropejska Nowa Demokracja – partia Kiriakosa Mitsotakisa, premiera od lipca 2019 r. do maja 2023 r. W przeciwieństwie do poprzednich wyborów z 21 maja br. wynik obecnych umożliwił mu powołanie samodzielnego gabinetu i i27 czerwca został on zaprzysiężony. Dalsze rządy Nowej Demokracji przyniosą zapewne kolejne reformy sprzyjające rozwojowi gospodarki. Oznaczać będą także utrzymanie dotychczasowej polityki zagranicznej i obronnej Grecji.

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Władimir Putin objęty nakazem aresztowania przez Międzynarodowy Trybunał Karny

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): Polish

17 marca br. Międzynarodowy Trybunał Karny (MTK) wydał nakazy aresztowania prezydenta Rosji Władimira Putina i komisarz do spraw praw dzieci w jego biurze (odpowiednika polskiego rzecznika praw dziecka) – Marii Lwowej-Biełowej. Oboje są podejrzewani przez Prokuraturę MTK o popełnienie zbrodni wojennych. Podjęcie przez MTK działań wobec Putina to ważny gest, pokazujący, że trybunał nie uchyla się od ścigania nawet najwyższych funkcjonariuszy państwowych. Wyegzekwowanie nakazów będzie jednak trudne z uwagi na spodziewane unikanie przez te osoby podróży do państw, z których mogłyby zostać wydane trybunałowi.

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Predstavljanje LGBTI+ prava u parlamentima. Vodič za poslanike i poslanice

Author(s): Nikola Čvoro / Language(s): Bosnian

LGBTI+ osobe imaju pravo na poštovanje, dostojanstvo i jednakost pred zakonom. Međutim, mnoge LGBTI+ osobe se suočavaju s diskriminacijom, nasiljem i kršenjem ljudskih prava zbog svoje seksualne orijentacije, rodnog identiteta, rodnog izraza ili polnih karakteristika. LGBTI+ osobe nisu zakonski ravnopravne s heteroseksualnim cisrodnim osobama u BiH. Istopolni seksualni odnosi nisu krivično kažnjivi u Republici Srpskoj od 1998. godine, odnosno u Federaciji Bosne i Hercegovine od 1996. godine. Zakon o zabrani diskriminacije iz 2009. godine zabranjuje diskriminaciju na osnovu seksualne orijentacije i rodnog identiteta. Takođe, postoji zakonska obaveza da se uskladi zakonodavstvo i politike s evropskim standardima u oblasti ljudskih prava, uključujući i prava LGBTI+ osoba.Istopolna partnerstava nisu priznata na entitetskim nivoima, što znači da istopolni parovi nemaju pristup istim pravnim zaštitama i socijalnim pravima kao parovi različitog pola. Trenutni pravni propisi u Bosni i Hercegovini ne pružaju jasnu sliku o tome da li pravna promjena oznake pola zahtijeva „po tpuno" ili „djelim ično" (medicinsko) prilagođavanje pola. Zbog toga je neophodno da Bosna i Hercegovina, njeni entiteti i Brčko distrikt usvoje zakone i druge propise koji će na sistematski i sveobuhvatan način regulisati proceduru promjene oznake pola u ličnim dokumentima i jedinstvenog matičnog broja na osnovu vlastitog zahtjeva trans osobe i prava na sam oodređenje, bez zahtjeva za prethodnom bilo kakvom medicinskom intervencijom. To implicira potrebu da se jasno definiše zakonom ili podzakonskim aktom u entitetima i Distriktu šta jeste promjena pola koju je izvršila zdravstvena ustanova, šta čini medicinsku dokumentaciju kojom se dokazuje prilagođavanje pola, te koja nadležna zdravstvena ustanova vrši tum ačenje dokumentacije. Takođe, život u drugom rodnom identitetu treba prepoznati kao osnov za upravne postupke promjene pola.

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2023 Kosovo: Debacle of International Community in Kosovo

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Crime in Kosovo has its roots in the period of Kosovo’s government-in-exile. The epicenter of crime includes the former commanders of the Kosovo Liberation Army (UÇK-OVK) and (para)intelligence services (ShIK), who acted in cooperation with political structures. Although the ShIK was officially dissolved in 2008 for the purposes of establishment of the official Kosovo Intelligence Agency, it still operates unofficially. There are strong connections between the current official and unofficial opposition political leaders and the enormous amounts of money, which has been collected through various funds. The Vendlindja thrret (Homeland Calling) fund was used to collect money in Europe and is controlled by the leaders of the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK). The Kosovo People’s Movement Levizja Popullore e Kosoves was established in 1997-98 and it collected money from the diaspora. In 1999 the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) was established from it. In 1991, the 3% Fund was created under the control of the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK). Dubious activities are affiliated with the closest family members of former Kosovo President Hashim Thaçi (PDK). In fact, a member of his family had a special role in the Kosovo Insurance Bureau (BKS) and controlled the overall financial system through the Central Bank of Kosovo (BQK). Kurti’s government abolished the popularly called “Thaci’s tax.”

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2023 Parliamentary Elections in Montenegro: Young Voters Will Decide the Elections

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

The early parliamentary elections, scheduled to take place on 11 June 2023, will be the twelfth parliamentary elections since the introduction of a multi-party system and the sixth since Montenegro gained its independence. There are around 542 thousand eligible voters registered in the central electoral roll. Montenegro has a proportional electoral system in which the entire country constitutes one electoral unit. At the elections a total of 81 representatives will be elected to the Montenegro’s Parliament. The election threshold is 3%.

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2023 Parliamentary Elections in Bulgaria: Between Brussels (Berlin) and Moscow

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

In the Republic of Bulgaria early parliamentary elections will be held on 2 April 2023. At the elections 240 representatives/deputies of the Bulgarian National Assembly will be elected according to the proportional closed-list system. There is a total of 31 electoral constituencies from which, depending on the size of the constituency from 4 to 16 representatives/deputies will be elected. The election threshold is 4%. These are the fifth elections in the past two years, as it was not possible to establish a government on the basis of the results of the previous elections.

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2023 to mark the 100th anniversary of the Republic of Türkiye: Will Türkiye Organize Early Presidential and Parliamentary Elections?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Turkish officials, headed by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, assure the public that there will be no early elections and that the elections will be organized as planned in June 2023. Furthermore, the Turkish Minister of Justice Bekir Bozdağ stated on 19 August 2022 that the presidential and parliamentary elections will be held as envisaged by the Turkish Constitution, that is on 18 June 2023. In Türkiye, there are suspicions that Erdoğan could surprise the opposition and call early general and presidential elections.

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Europe of the West: Imperialism of Imagination, Geopolitics of Peter Pan

Author(s): Anis H. Bajrektarević / Language(s): English

Economic downturn; recession of plans and initiatives; systematically ignored calls for a fiscal and monetary justice for all; €-crisis; Brexit and irredentism in the UK, Spain, Belgium, France, Denmark and Italy; lasting instability in the Euro-Med theatre (debt crisis of the Europe’s south – countries scrutinized and ridiculed under the nickname PIGS, coupled with the failed states all over the MENA); terrorism; historic low with Moscow culminating in the unprecedented opened armed conflict of West with Russia on the territory of yet another Slavic useful idiot, ill-fated Ukraine, all this combined with a confrontational but in fact frightened and disoriented Washington administration; influx of predominantly Muslim refugees from Levant in numbers and configurations unprecedented since the WWII exoduses (with an institutionalized racism in the Western migration policy while giving to fleeing Ukrainians diametrically different treatment); consequential growth of far-right parties who – by peddling reductive messages and comparisons – are exploiting fears of otherness, that are now amplified with already urging health labour and social justice concerns; generational unemployment and sociocultural anxieties, in ricochet of sanctions; long-ago ‘prophesised’ than doctored health, post-C-19 and energy ‘crises’, oil anti-diplomacy, as well as the Sino-US trade wars, while rifting in dilemma to either letting Bolivarism or supporting Monroeism…

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2022 General Elections in BiH: Can the Voters Beat the Media, Religious Communities and Foreign Influence?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

The ninth general elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina will take place on 2 October 2022. At the elections, members of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, representatives in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina, representatives in the House of Representatives of the Parliament of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, President of the Republika Srpska, two vice-presidents of Republika Srpska, representatives in the Republika Srpska National Assembly (NSRS), and representative in the assemblies of 10 cantons in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina will be elected.

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2022 Serbia: Elections in the shadow of pressures, Ukraine crisis and Kosovo

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

In the Republic of Serbia, regular presidential, extraordinary parliamentarian and regular local elections for the capital of Belgrade and 12 municipalities are scheduled to take place on 3 April 2022. At the parliamentary elections, 250 representatives will be elected for the Republic of Serbia National Assembly using the system of proportional-representation. There are 6,501,689 registered voters who will be able to vote at 8,255 polling stations.

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