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After three days of voting in parliamentary elections in Russia, the ruling United Russia was declared the winner on 19 September. The course of the campaigns, the manipulation of the voting, and a crackdown on opposition candidates testify to the intensification of authoritarian rule in Russia.
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The Social Democratic Party (SPD) of Germany won the Bundestag elections with 25.7% of the vote. However, it does not mean the Social Democrats will lead the government - CDU/CSU still can form a new coalition after it took 24.1%. Any coalition will most likely include the Greens (14.8%) and FDP (11.5%). With the participation of as many as three parties in the negotiations, Germany’s next government may not be formed until the turn of 2021 to 2022.
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The military takeover of Sudan led by Gen. Abdel Fatah al-Burhan on 25 October will lead to blocking the process of reforms and the democratic transformation, deepening the economic crisis, and a period of social unrest. If civilian power is not restored, Sudan is threatened with a deterioration in relations with Western partners, which will benefit the Gulf states and Russia.
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The 31 October elections to Japan’s House of Representatives brought another victory for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), run by new leader and prime minister Kishida Fumio. The new government will continue to strengthen the alliance with the U.S. and emphasise Japan’s cooperation within the QUAD group on the Indo-Pacific, while trying to maintain proper relations with China.
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Both Democratic candidates for the United States Senate in the run-off elections in Georgia won. With the vice-presidency, the Democrats have gained a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. This will make it less likely that the Republican Party can block the incoming president's legislative initiatives and appointments to the administration. During the certification of the presidential election by a joint chamber of Congress, participants in a rally in support of President Donald Trump broke through police lines and into the Capitol. Four people died in the riots. After nearly seven hours, the deliberations resumed, and Congress certified the election of Joe Biden as the next president of the United States.
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On 13 January, only seven days before the end of President Donald Trump’s term of office, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 232-197 to impeach him. Ten Republican representatives joined Democrats in voting for impeachment, making it the most bipartisan impeachment in U.S. history. It is also the first time in American history that a single president has been impeached twice. One of the goals of impeachment is to block Trump from running for office in the future, even if he will not be removed before his term ends.
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The prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Armin Laschet, defeated the former head of the Bundestag CDU/CSU faction, Friedrich Merz, and the head of the Bundestag foreign affairs committee, Norbert Röttgen. His election is a continuation of the centrist course and an attempt to attract broad groups of the electorate. The change of CDU leadership will affect German foreign policy only after the federal elections and will depend on the shape of the new government coalition.
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On 20 January, Joe Biden took the oath of office and became the 46th president of the United States. Kamala Harris was sworn in as vice president, the first woman in U.S. history to hold the post. The president delivered a speech primarily addressing domestic politics and the divisions among Americans. He outlined a programme for his administration in its first hundred or so days in office that will focus on large social and economic challenges.
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The 1 February military coup in Myanmar has stopped the country’s democratic transformation, hampers the prospects for peace, and deepens its international isolation. This will be the first major test for the new U.S. administration as it sets out to strengthen democracy around the world. The event may contribute to a joint initiative between the EU and the U.S.
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The vote of confidence in Italy’s new government on 17-18 February ended a month-long period of political crisis. The priority of Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s cabinet will be to fight the pandemic and restore the economy. Draghi in this position guarantees a stable pro-European and pro-Atlantic course for Italy despite the support of populist forces. Maintaining the unity of the multi-party government may prove to be his biggest challenge.
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The election winners in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate are the parties currently governing in the federal states - the Greens (32.6%) and the SPD (35.7%), respectively. The result of the vote was a defeat for the CDU, which recorded its worst result in the history of elections in both regions. The Greens have reasons for satisfaction, as they strengthened the party’s position on the German political scene. The shape of local governments tends to indicate the potential scenario for a coalition at the federal level after elections to the Bundestag, scheduled for later this year.
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The Mo Ibrahim Foundation on 8 March awarded Mohammadou Issoufou, the outgoing president of Niger, a country that is the European Union’s most important partner in the control of irregular migration, a prestigious award for exemplary leadership. The 10 years of Issoufou’s rule serve as an example for neighbouring Mali and could be helpful in limiting the problem of unconstitutional third cadencies in West Africa.
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The latest parliamentary elections in Israel (23 March) again did not reveal clear winners. Benjamin Netanyahu lacks enough votes to form a coalition outright, and if the opposition remains coherent and reaches a common position, the prime minister may be replaced.
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The resignation of Prime Minister Igor Matovič and the swearing-in of Eduard Heger on 1 April ended the conflict in the government caused by the purchase of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine. The coalition of four right-wing parties, ruling from March 2020, will remain in power: Ordinary People and Independent Personalities (OĽaNO), Freedom and Solidarity (SaS), and We Are Family and For People. It will adjust internal policy and will continue its foreign policy.
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In September’s Bundestag elections, party leaders Armin Laschet and Annalena Baerbock will be the CDU/CSU and Greens candidates, respectively, for the position of German chancellor. Their nominations will be key factors determining whether the politicians’ internal party leadership will strengthen. The indication of Laschet and Baerbock also brings closer the prospect of creating a coalition of CDU/CSU and the Greens at the federal level.
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On 28 April, the Constitutional Court of Moldova lifted the state of emergency, declaring procedures were violated when introduced by parliament, dominated by the Russian-oriented Party of Socialists (PSRM) of former President Igor Dodon. The court’s action allowed President Maia Sandu to issue a decree dissolving the chamber and call early elections for 11 July. The results of the elections may radically change the balance of power in Moldovan politics and allow the establishment of a pro-Western government.
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On 6 May, a series of council, mayoral, Scottish, and Welsh parliamentary elections took place, as well as the House of Commons by election in Hartlepool. Campaigning covered all constituent parts of Great Britain. The elections provided the first test of support for political forces after the outbreak of the pandemic and Brexit. The clear victory of the Conservatives in England and the nationalists in Scotland seems to confirm electoral shifts occurring since 2016 and the slim prospects for the return of Labour - until recently the largest party with strong footholds in all parts of Great Britain - to power within the next decade.
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W stanach Iowa i New Hampshire 3 i 11 lutego br. odbyły się pierwsze z 57 głosowań w prawyborach Partii Demokratycznej. Nieoczekiwanym zwycięzcą w Iowa został Pete Buttigieg, zaś w New Hampshire – Bernie Sanders. Dotychczasowy faworyt w wyścigu o nominację, Joe Biden, uzyskał odpowiednio czwarty i piąty wynik. Jego słaby start utrudni mu dalsze prowadzenie kampanii, w dużej mierze skoncentrowanej na konfrontacji z Donaldem Trumpem.
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The ruling Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro (DPS) on 30 August won the country’s parliamentary elections, ahead of the autumn constitutional date, because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, after nearly 30 years in power, it is likely to lose it. The opposition won a majority in parliament and is determined to establish a new cabinet based on the demands to continue Montenegro’s international obligations and integrate it with the EU.
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The left-wing Movement for Socialism (MAS) will take power in Bolivia after a year’s break, based on preliminary results in the parliamentary and presidential elections held on 18 October. MAS is the party of ex-president Evo Morales, who remains in Argentina in asylum. Luis Alberto Arce will be the new president and his government will need to calm the tense internal situation down and tackle the COVID-19 pandemic. The EU’s active support for the peaceful electoral process in Bolivia strengthens the Union’s position as a leading promoter of democracy in Latin America.
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