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РЕФОРУМ. АЛЬТЕРНАТИВНЫЙ ВЗГЛЯД: У ГРАЖДАНСКОГО ОБЩЕСТВА И ПОЛИТИЧЕСКОЙ ОППОЗИЦИИ ОСОБОЕ ОТНОШЕНИЕ К РЕФОРМАМ В БЕЛАРУСИ

Author(s): Elena Artemenko / Language(s): Russian

In the countries of Eastern and Central Europe, the third sector played an important role in the transformation processes: as an aggregator of public interests and their lobbyist, as a source of expertise and a partner in promoting the idea of reform. In Belarus, due to state restrictions and dependence on foreign aid, the third sector has been in a rather vulnerable position for a long time and has limited influence on the situation in the country. In the conditions when the dialogue with the West is established by the Belarusian authorities without the need to attract mediators in the form of representatives of civil society or the political opposition, the third sector risks falling out of the process of transformation of Belarusian institutions. The study of the attitude of civil society and political opposition to reforms in the country allows us to assess their potential role in reformation and the opportunity to join the transformation process, if such an opportunity presents itself. As part of the "REFORUM" project, BISS conducted a survey of the opinions of representatives of public organizations and the political opposition, the subject of which was the attitude of civil society to reforms in Belarus. It makes it possible to assess the change in attitudes towards reforms during 2014-2015, as well as to compare the results with the survey among representatives of other groups: the population as a whole, officials and entrepreneurs

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ФАКТОРЫ РЕПРОДУКТИВНОГО ВЫБОРА БЕЛОРУСОВ

Author(s): Elena Artemenko / Language(s): Russian

Declining fertility is a common problem for many European countries. Improving the demographic situation is also one of the priorities of state policy in Belarus. The reduction of the population has many negative consequences, starting from economic ones ("the average annual cost of human life" according to data in 2012 was 3,883 US dollars, ending with the reduction of the mobilization resource for the Armed Forces. It is difficult to overestimate the importance of the reproductive attitudes of the population and the reason for their formation in solving the demographic problem.

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МОНИТОРИНГ РЕФОРМ В РЕСПУБЛИКЕ БЕЛАРУСЬ. Аналитический отчет

Author(s): Alexander Avtushko-Sikorsky,Alexander Kozlov,Alexei Pikulik,Elena Artemenko / Language(s): Russian

This issue of monitoring covers 16 key spheres of politics, economy and society. The spheres were chosen taking into account their significance for the successful further socio-economic development of Belarus, as well as taking into account the conditional "criticality" regarding the need for reforms. A number of areas that were also proposed to be evaluated by experts are mentioned and described, but are not included in the evaluation part of the monitoring, since no changes were recorded in them during the analyzed period of October-December 2016. These areas will also be included in subsequent monitoring releases. In addition, taking into account the wishes and recommendations of experts, a number of other areas will be included in subsequent monitoring issues. More than 40 experts took part in the expert poll necessary for the monitoring. The Belarusian Institute of Strategic Studies thanks the experts who agreed to take part in the survey, and will be glad to see them among the survey participants in the next issues.

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Georgia: An Unexpected Expected Crisis

Author(s): Ghia Nodia / Language(s): English

In the evening of June 19th, I with two other experts took part in a talk-show on a Georgian TV channel. We all agreed that for the moment, the Georgian Dream (GD) party led by Bidzina Ivanishvili, a secretive plutocrat, looked all but impregnable in power and had good chances to win again in the next parliamentary elections in October 2020. Yes, it was losing popularity for being ineffective and increasingly autocratic. However, it benefitted from controlling all levers of power and weakness of the opposition. In November 2019, it used blatant vote-buying and alleged voter intimidation to help the candidate it supported, Salome Zurabishvili, to win presidential elections. What would have stopped it from doing the same again?

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Z-winner takes it all: What will the future Parliament of Ukraine look like?

Author(s): Artem Remizov / Language(s): English

While the vote-counting in Ukraine continues, it is already clear that the president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has secured the power over legislative and, consequently, executive branches of the government. His political force, the Servant of the People party, has won a landslide victory in the snap parliamentary elections on July 21 losing only 3 out of 24 regions under the party lists and winning enough singlemember districts to guarantee a single-party majority. Indeed, this result is an extraordinary one: none of the political parties has ever had the opportunity to simultaneously have its representative in the presidential chair and unilaterally form the government. This poses both considerable opportunities and challenges to Ukraine’s political system.

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Moldova’s return to a pro-Russian government

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

The political struggle over the rule of law reforms is returning Moldova back to the status quo of 10 years ago, one of an oscillating East-West model of political leadership. Last week’s effective vote of no-confidence against the reform-keen government of Prime Minister Maia Sandu has made it possible for the Socialists to consolidate their political weight. The whole executive power has moved into the hands of the President Igor Dodon, who has never ceased to craft decisions inside the Socialists Party.

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Continuing tension in Georgia over contested electoral systems

Author(s): Ghia Nodia / Language(s): English

Since June, the center of Georgian politics has moved to the streets and no way back is in sight yet. Everything started on June 20th, when a Russian communist MP Sergei Gavrilov was seen in the chair of the speaker of Georgian Parliament leading a session of the Interparliamentary Assembly on Orthodoxy. This sight outraged many Georgians who long suspected their government of the hidden pro-Russian agenda. They responded with large protest rallies led by non-partisan youth organizations with the participation of political parties.

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100 days of Ukraine’s new government: many achievements but some disturbing signs

Author(s): Veronika Movchan / Language(s): English

The new Ukrainian Parliament and the Government celebrate their first 100 days in power, after the summer early parliamentary elections brought overwhelming victory to the “Servants of People” party. For sure, the political achievements have been impressive. The elections of president and parliament were truly democratic, and the clear results provide a valuable foundation for coherent government. The new cabinet of ministers sees many carefully selected people of real competence, almost all quite young and apparently dynamic.

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The End of the Honeymoon for Ukraine’s Zelensky

Author(s): Artem Remizov / Language(s): English

While the whole world is fighting the global Coronavirus pandemic, Ukraine is also experiencing a political shake up. On 4 March the Parliament dismissed Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk and his government after just six months in office without objective justification.2 It followed this by sacking the Prosecutor General whose work had been praised by Ukraine’s international partners. The president’s team also made a first step towards recognition of Russia-supported separatist Donbas‘republics’ through their (possible, not yet confirmed) inclusion in Minsk talks. As a result, Ukraine has entered into another period of uncertainty what has already led to an increase in interest rates on Ukrainian sovereign bond. The present note chronicles these developments and their implications.

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The new political season in Ukraine: with a rollback of reforms?

Author(s): Artem Remizov / Language(s): English

Slightly more than a year has passed since the President Volodymyr Zelensky consolidated the legislative and executive powers in Ukraine. Elected on popular promises to dismantle the old “system” of corruption and injustice in the country, Zelensky is having a hard time to live up to optimistic expectations . After the reset of the government in March and subsequent reshuffling of management in major state agencies, almost none of the reformers who were initially a part of the president’s team preserved their seats. While the government’s response on the COVID-19 pandemic is far from being effective, there is also increasing concern over attempts to undermine one of the crucial institutional accomplishments of the post-Euromaidan period – the state’s anti-corruption system.

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Elections amid the Surge of the Pandemic

Author(s): Ghia Nodia / Language(s): English

What’s at stake? In the October 31st parliamentary elections Georgia will decide whether it keeps the government of the Georgian Dream (GD) party led by its billionaire leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili, or a coalition of the opposition parties. As usual in Georgian elections, there are no obvious policy differences between the contenders, and even if there are some, voters’ decisions will not be based on them. Critics claim that Ivanishvili’s team is not robust and consistent in pursuing Georgia’s pro-western course, and may have hidden pro-Russian leanings – though GD leaders angrily deny this.

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“Inevitable” geopolitical elections in Moldova – the Europeans bet on opposition, Russia favours the incumbent

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

The geopolitical saga of the Moldovan presidential elections has commenced. Before the voting day on November 1st, 2020, both political voices from the EU and Russia have picked their favorites. The EU looks at the elections as yet another test, after which it will decide how to calibrate its financial assistance. The Russian politicians are shaping instead a narrative that aims to counter the Western presence. Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov (M id.ru, Oct. 2020 ), and Sergei Narishkin (Gazeta.ru, Oct. 2020 ) who leads the Foreign Special Service of Russia, have insinuated that the US would help the opposition to start a “coloured revolution”, if the pro-Russian candidate claims the victory. Moscow is using the comparison with the ongoing power struggles in Belarus and Kyrgyzstan to illustrate what can happen in Moldova.

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Moldovan presidential elections: Sandu wins the run-off, while Dodon faces a “checkmate“

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

The outcome of the second round of the presidential election on Sunday 14 November saw the victory of Maia Sandu as the 6 th president of Moldova, who is also the first female president of the country. More than 1.6 million voters have opted for a change of the president. The runoff attracted the highest number of voters in the country’s history since independence, both within the country and abroad – 1.650.131 and 260.079 voters respectively. Despite the pandemic, the turnout in the runoff was only about 1% lower than in the 2016 presidential elections - 53.3%. Thus, the former Prime Minister Maia Sandu has overcome both for the 2016 defeat in the previous presidential elections, and the 2019 no-confidence vote staged by the Socialists to end her short-lived government.

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Results of the local elections in Ukraine: A new political landscape on the ground?

Author(s): Artem Remizov / Language(s): English

The local elections in Ukraine that started on October 25 are not officially over yet. While the majority of mayors and local councils were sworn in, the Central Election Commission is still finalising the results in some districts. Moreover, in several communities, elections were rescheduled for early 2021. Nevertheless, it is already possible to assess available results of the voting and its implications for the political landscape of Ukraine

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Moldova’s forthcoming elections in 2021 and the new President Maia Sandu’s tough agenda

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă,Adrian Lupuşor / Language(s): English

In a surprising move, the government led by the Prime Minister Ion Chicu decided to resign by the end of this year, on December 23rd. The announcement came a few hours before the parliamentary session at which the opposition planned to topple the government in a vote of no confidence. In these circumstances, the new President Maia Sandu will have to negotiate with the parliamentary factions over what to do next. Two options are on the table.

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Media in Bosnia and Herzegovina: How international support can be more effective (ICG Bosnia Report No. 21 - 18 March 1997)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The media approach of international organisations in Bosnia and Herzegovina is unimaginative at best. The principal point of contact with journalists is a daily press conference which is held in English without translation. While the foreign press corps is well catered for, Bosnian journalists feel that they are ignored and consider the international community’s approach imperialistic. ICG proposes a series of measures for the international community which, if implemented, could help change the role of the Bosnian media from one which is exacerbating tension to one which could contribute to restoring trust between the country’s peoples.

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Politička analiza. Uloga civilnog društva u reformi ustava u BiH

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Davor Vuletić,Mirza Kušljugić,Dževad F. Sarajlić,Zlatko Dizdarević / Language(s): Bosnian

This document is intended for organizations that operate under the umbrella of the term "civil society", where there is an interest in being included in the dialogue on the reform of the Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Therefore, the goal of this document is to offer a vision of the role of civil society in the reform of the constitution, to determine the basic guidelines for the active engagement of non-governmental organizations and to point out the necessity of recognizing and accepting one's own strengths and weaknesses. One of his basic recommendations is precisely that each individual non-governmental organization should recognize its interest and role in constitutional reform, formulate its own goals, messages and mechanisms and act in that direction. It would be idealistic to expect that the political elites, who until now have appropriated the discussion on the reform of the constitution, will themselves see the advantages of including civil society in that process. Therefore, this analysis highlights the need to create a more positive environment for partnership and dialogue between civil society and political elites, as well as the media.

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WHO'S WHO IN KOSOVO (ICG Balkans Report N°76)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This paper offers a brief guide to the leading indigenous political organisations and personalities in Kosovo/Kosova. The authority of the international civil and military presence in Kosovo rests on UN Security Council Resolution 1244 of 10 June 1999. Under international law no other authority enjoys any legitimacy until the UN administration grants it. Specifically, the international civil presence is tasked with: “Organizing and overseeing the development of provisional institutions for democratic and autonomous self-government pending a political settlement…” The UN, as a step towards fulfillment of this task, has created an advisory and consultative Transitional Council, composed of representatives of Kosovar Albanian political parties and leaders from minority communities. It has had a shaky start, meeting only once in July and twice in August, though meetings are now planned weekly.

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MACEDONIA: Gearing up for Presidential Elections (ICG Balkans Report N°77)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Six candidates will contest the 1999 presidential elections, all of them backed by political parties. A number of independents who earlier declared their intention to run in the elections either failed to gather the necessary signatures or withdrew before submitting the necessary documentation to the State Electoral Commission. Plans by the ruling coalition to field a common candidate fell apart, and all three coalition parties nominated their own candidates. The opposition also failed to agree on a joint candidate, as did the two major Albanian parties (one of which is in the government, the other in opposition).

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WAITING FOR UNMIK: Local Administration in Kosovo (ICG Balkans Report N° 79)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This report seeks to identify the main reasons why this uncomfortable position has been reached, and identify a way forward. UNMIK’s administrators have arrived late in their assigned municipality, with little clear guidance about the job facing them and the circumstances they would be working in. Lack of funding and personnel leaves them in a position where they continuously have to improvise, while still waiting for guidelines from headquarters in Prishtinë/Priština. They are in many cases forced to tell the self-proclaimed Albanian communal authorities, which they cannot formally recognise but must work with on a day-to-day basis, to wait a little longer. The waiting is then handed down to the population, which remains unserved and unserviced into the fifth month. Growing impatience can be observed at every level. This report argues for a negotiated and therefore more pragmatic approach: while the UN should hold the political authority in municipalities, the existing structure should be co-opted as a non-political executive.

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