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CSD Policy Brief No. 22: Енергийният сектор на България

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The brief "The Energy Sector of Bulgaria" is elaborated jointly by the Center for the Study of Democracy and the Atlantic Council of US. It presents the main challenges that the energy sector in Bulgaria faces. By virtue of its geography, Bulgaria finds itself in a difficult nexus, drawn into Eurasia’s contentious energy geopolitics and as a European Union member, involved in the Union’s fragmented energy policy and complex regulatory, energy efficiency and climate change objectives. That position is challenging, but it also presents decision-makers in Sofia with opportunities.

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Italy Reworks Energy Policy after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine forced the Italian authorities to quickly seek alternative gas supplies and sparked a debate about the risks of dependence on foreign commodities. Despite favourable natural conditions, both the development of renewable energy sources (RES) and domestic gas production are hampered by bureaucratic obstacles and opposition in local communities. Continued dependence on energy imports will eventually push Italy to normalise relations with Russia.

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EU Still Receiving Russian LNG

Author(s): Marianna Skoczek-Wojciechowska / Language(s): English

Even without an EU ban on the imports of Russian gas in 2022, pipeline deliveries fell by over 80%. However, this did not eliminate the EU’s dependence on gas from Russia because at the same time, the Union recorded a record increase in LNG imports from this country. This trend goes against the EU’s efforts to diversify supply directions. It is important for the European Commission (EC) to encourage the Member States more strongly to abandon Russian LNG and strengthen European solidarity through joint gas purchases using the EU Energy Platform, as well as through the development of an LNG benchmark.

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Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports Require Further Refining

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Western and other states’ restriction of imports of Russian oil and sanctions on its oil trade had little impact on Russia’s budget revenues in 2022. This was because Russia found new customers for its crude, mainly in Asia. The effects of the restrictions only started to become apparent from the beginning of this year, but without a further, significant reduction in this source of income, Russia’s ability to fund its aggression against Ukraine will not be weakened. The best way to increase the effectiveness of the sanctions would be to further reduce the price ceiling on Russian oil and take steps to increase the oil supply on the global market from alternative sources.

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At all costs. Germany shifts to LNG

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the resulting collapse of the concept of an energy alliance between Berlin and Moscow, have become the catalysts for Germany to change its approach to building LNG import infrastructure. In order to become permanently independent of Russian supplies, Berlin has made an enormous financial effort to build its own terminals at record speed and on an unprecedented scale. The facilities planned will not only enable Germany to meet its economy’s demand for gas, but will also help it to maintain its role as the gas hub for Central Europe, which has been somewhat weakened recently. They will also allow it to continue to use gas as a transition fuel during the period of the country’s energy transition (Energiewende).

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Unfulfilled ambitions: Russia’s LNG sector in the grip of sanctions

Author(s): Filip Rudnik / Language(s): English

The technological sanctions which the West has imposed on Russia’s LNG sector have drastically reduced the opportunities for the industry’s expansion, and made it less likely that Russia can increase its share on the global LNG market. Moreover, the Russian Federation’s ambitious targets for LNG production capacity have not been formally revised, which means that it is now virtually impossible to achieve them. The slim chances of Russia’s LNG production capacity increasing over the coming years have a negative impact on the country’s overall gas exports. In view of Moscow’s political decision to slash pipeline supplies to Europe, liquefied gas could help Russia to mitigate the consequences of this reduction as long as there are no formal restrictions on its imports to the EU; it could also ensure that European consumers remain partly dependent on Russian gas. However, the tough restrictions on technology exports to Russia have significantly reduced the likelihood of this scenario becoming a reality.

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Business and Consumer Protection Must Evolve after Europe’s Energy Crisis

Author(s): Piotr Dzierżanowski,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

The energy crisis has hit businesses and consumers in the EU hard. Member States took remedial action and the European Commission implemented solutions at the Community level. The EU managed to avoid economic collapse and maintain the stability needed to support Ukraine and to face Russia. Further countermeasures will need to be taken this summer to avoid another energy crisis in the winter of 2023- 2024.

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The calm before the storm: the state and prospects of Russia’s oil sector

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have serious consequences for the health of the Russian oil sector, which is one of the most important branches of the country’s economy. Although its production and export performance, and consequently its budget revenues, remained high in2022, the situation began to worsen in December, and the negative trend is likely to continue in the coming months. The main reason for this state of affairs is the sanctions introduced by Western countries, in particular the European Union’s embargo on imports of Russian oil and petroleum products. Russia’s government and companies have taken adaptive measures, such as reconfiguring the directions of oil exports; however, economic, infrastructural and political constraints may make it much more difficult to follow through with the plan for sustainable market diversification. Thus, the EU embargo may lead to a significant reduction in oil production in Russia over the coming years, which will worsen the country’s financial and economic health. The ultimate effect of the restrictions will depend on the determination of Western countries and the pace at which they implement sanctions, as well as the attitudes of Moscow’s other trading partners.

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Germany: how the gas sector changed in the crisis year of 2022

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Due to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the mounting energy and gas crisis in Europe,2022 saw a spell of permanent crisis management in the German energy sector, in particular gas. The structure of Germany’s imports has changed significantly: shipments from Russia, its former principal supplier, have ceased; and Germany has had to launch extremely costly emergency measures to find alternative suppliers on the global market. The war has pushed Berlin to take numerous steps to diversify its supplies, in particular to develop its LNG import infrastructure at a rapid and unprecedented pace. A significant reduction in gas consumption, mild weather and LNG supplies have all enabled Germany to fill its gas storage facilities and avoid the risk of gas shortages this winter. Major changes have also occurred in the management and ownership structure of the German gas sector: Berlin has nationalised the SEFE (Gazprom Germania) and Uniper companies, which has enabled the German state to seize control of the country’s key gas infrastructure and its strategically important gas importers. All these factors have contributed to a major weakening of Germany’s energy ties with Russia.

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Russia: export restrictions and mobilisation – more blows to the economy

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

In Q3 2022, the economy of the Russian Federation increasingly suffered negative consequences from the sanctions imposed on Russian exports. A ban on imports of a substantial part of Russian steel and iron into the EU came into force in mid-June, followed by a ban on imports such as cement and wood on 10 July, and a ban on coal imports on 10 August. The mood among business and the public soured further with the military mobilisation announced on 21 September, which also had a negative impact on the domestic outlook. As a result, the Russian budget is coming under increasing strain.

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Separatism and gas: Russian attempts to destabilise Moldova

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): English

As the price crisis in Moldova has worsened in recent months, Moscow has taken steps destabilize the country. These are particularly evident in the autonomous Gagauzia, which has traditionally orientated itself towards Russia and where anti-government and pro-Russian economic protests regularly occur. The sense of insecurity is reinforced by frequent false bomb warnings (more than 50 in July alone), triggered mainly in Chisinau by individuals from Russia and Belarus territories. The uneasy situation persists in Moscow-controlled breakaway Transnistria, which has accused Moldova and Ukraine of complicity in carrying out a series of “attacks” on civilian and military facilities. There is no doubt that by fuelling Moldova’s economic crisis with high energy prices and supporting pro-Russian forces, the Kremlin is counting on the outbreak of mass protests as early as autumn and winter and also that the opposition Electoral Bloc of Communists and Socialists (BECS) will seize power in the country. The public’s deteriorating financial condition and continuing unrest are negatively affecting the popularity of the ruling pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS). According to a June 2022 poll, it can count on only 22.6% of the vote, despite winning more than 52% in the snap parliamentary election just one year ago.

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An abundance of gas ports. The emergency diversification of gas supplies in Germany

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

The LNG terminal projects planned so far in Germany could not be implemented due to unfavourable regulatory and market conditions. The ability to opt for cheaper Russian gas, imported via pipelines, was one of the main obstacles since the German government saw no need to invest in securing supplies, mistakenly believing that it shared common interests with Russia as part of the two countries’ energy alliance. The aggression against Ukraine has revealed these beliefs to be myths and has become a catalyst for a profound revision of the approach to cooperation with Russia. Aware of the risk of cutting off gas supplies and the ensuing serious economic consequences, Germany has intensified its efforts and is taking emergency measures to develop LNG import infrastructure. In the short term, Germany will have four floating storage and regasification units (FSRU) which, combined with other measures to diversify supplies, will enable Germany to become independent of gas imports from Russia in 2024. This, however, does not automatically mean that Germany will decide to totally and permanently discontinue the imports of Russian gas.

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Germany and the crisis of globalisation: adjustment strategies

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Germany is among the biggest beneficiaries of the global economic system based on free trade and on cross-border organisation of production. However, the functioning of this system has been recently disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has highlighted the vulnerability of excessively stretched supply chains. It has also been hit hard by Russia’s attack on Ukraine and by the resulting sanctions, which are aggravating supply-related problems and stoking political divisions between the major powers. All of these forces may lead to the global economy splitting into competing platforms, and to the logic of cost optimisation being abandoned infavour of risk mitigation. If this happens, Germany would face a difficult strategic dilemma and embark on one of the following three options. The first option would involve defending the increasingly unstable status quo and the benefits of exchange patterns associated with it. In the second option, Berlin could favour a political and military consolidation of the West, and at the same time let businesses operate freely and move between the competing platforms. The third option involves taking part in the creation of an alliance of democratic states, accompanied by partial de-globalisation and an overhaul of the present economic model. While this is the most radical scenario, in the context of the continuously expanding sanction regime targeting Moscow and the mounting chaos in global supply networks (caused by China’s pandemic restrictions), its likelihood is increasing.

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The dispute over Nord Stream 2: the stances and the outlook

Author(s): Ryszarda Formuszewicz,Szymon Kardaś,Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

Russian ships resumed laying the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline on the Baltic Sea bed in February this year. Russia’s goal is to complete the project and put it into operation as soon as possible. This coincided with media reports that representatives of Germany and the new US administration had been searching for compromise arrangements to determine the conditions for construction to be completed and operation to commence. These would include options for a moratorium on launching it but, above all, the creation of guarantees to maintain the limited transit of Russian gas through Ukraine or a ‘snap back’ mechanism enabling shutting off/limiting flows via NS2 in the event of problems with supplies or transit through Ukrainian territory. Berlin hopes to agree on the terms on which the US will tolerate the gas pipeline, or will at least play for time so that construction can be completed while the talks are underway and the certification necessary for its launch can be obtained. It is unclear what actions the Joe Biden administration will take regarding this issue. On the one hand, it has criticized the project but on the other, it has not imposed any sanctions that could stop its implementation as yet (19 March 2021) and it is striving to improve relations with Germany.

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Ecology and Growth: Macron’s Dilemma before Elections

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Protection of the environment is increasingly influencing the voting preferences of the French. The initiatives put forward by the authorities, such as subsidies for zero-emission cars or the reduction of dependence on nuclear energy, aim to reconcile economic growth with a commitment to the environment. The current environmental policy of President Emmanuel Macron, although criticised both by environmentalists and business interests, may gain voter recognition and favour the development of French non-carbon technologies.

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The Significance of the Energy Charter Treaty and Perspective for Reform

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

The Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) allows energy companies to protect their foreign investments in fossil fuels, among others. It is controversial, though, because the treaty makes it difficult for its parties to implement ambitious climate policy and decarbonise their economies. The current debate on reforming the ECT creates an opportunity to amend the treaty to better fit the EU’s - and Poland’s - needs. However, if the negotiations are delayed further, it would be advisable to abandon the treaty.

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European Agriculture: Climate and Other Environmental Challenges

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

The reactions to two new European Commission (EC) strategies concerning food production and biodiversity reflect discord between the advocates of accelerating changes in agriculture and proponents of a more circumspect approach privileging high output and competitiveness. The Commission, by increasing the Common Agricultural Policy budget, aims to contribute to the implementation of the strategies and improve its chances of persuading the Council, the European Parliament, and other stakeholders to endorse them. However, the objectives set by the strategies will likely be limited.

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Clean Gas: Prospects of Hydrogen Energy Development in the EU

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Hydrogen is a non-polluting gas, which, by replacing natural gas, would contribute to decarbonising the EU’s industry. The development of the hydrogen sector is related not only with climate policy but also with the industrial strategy and it will require, for example, forging regulations and making investments both in hydrogen production capacities and a transmission network. The above issues will be a challenge for Poland’s industrial and foreign policy.

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The Impact of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine on the European Energy Sector

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to a rapid reorientation of energy policy in Western countries. Energy cooperation with Russia is now undesirable. A broad consensus has emerged on the need to reduce dependence on imports of Russian raw materials, including countries that previously regarded Russia as a reliable trading partner, such as Germany. The EU supports Ukraine, whose energy security has deteriorated significantly.

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The unfinished de-russification. The remnants of energy ties between the EU and Russia

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota,Krzysztof Dębiec,Michał Kędzierski,Filip Rudnik,Andrzej Sadecki,Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

The launch of Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine and its economic war with the West have led to an unprecedented reduction in the European Union’s energy ties with Moscow. Brussels has proven more willing than many expected to shift away from importing Russian energy resources, as evidenced by sanctions imposed on imports of oil and petroleum products. During the gas crisis, the EU demonstrated its resolve to diversify its gas supply at an unprecedented pace, largely replacing the sharply declining volumes from Russia. Diversification efforts are ongoing, encompassing both energy resources and power supply networks. Following the successful emergency wartime synchronisation of Ukraine with the European power grid, the Baltic states plan to disconnect from the Russian system in February 2025.Despite these achievements and the political goal of fully ending hydrocarbon imports from Russia, energy ties with this country have not been reduced to the same extent across all EU member states. The ongoing war renders these dependencies a risk factor for both those individual states and the Union as a whole. This is particularly evident in Central Europe, where most countries in the region still largely rely on Russian gas and oil. Since July, issues have emerged with some Russian oil deliveries, with gas transit through Ukraine likely to cease at the beginning of 2025. Russia also remains a significant player in the European and global nuclear fuel supply chain, with its companies still holding assets within the EU refinery infrastructure.

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