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EU Currencies Face the Pandemic: Euro Area, Other Member States’ Capacities to Overcome the Crisis

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

In the struggle with COVID-19, European Union countries with their own currencies face more difficult conditions to take anti-crisis measures than eurozone members. The difference is due to the international role of the euro, the potential of the European Central Bank (ECB) to finance governments and banks, and access to special rescue mechanisms. Asymmetries in anti-crisis policy may lead some Central European countries to accelerate preparations for membership in the euro area.

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Historyczne porozumienie w Paryżu: znaczenie dla Polski i Unii Europejskiej

Author(s): Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): Polish

W Paryżu 12 grudnia 2015 r. wynegocjowano pierwsze od prawie 20 lat porozumienie, którego celem jest zapobiegnięcie nieodwracalnym skutkom zmian klimatu. Najważniejsze cechy nowej umowy to jej globalny zakres – wszystkie 195 państw będzie musiało redukować emisje gazów cieplarnianych, oraz trwałość – nie wyznaczono daty końca jej obowiązywania. Powstał zatem system koordynacji działań na całym świecie, co oznacza, że Unia Europejska nie będzie prowadziła polityki klimatycznej w odosobnieniu. Zmniejszy to negatywne konsekwencje dla konkurencyjności europejskiej, ale też polskiej gospodarki.

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Sustainable Development Goals and Post-2015 Development Agenda

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

On 25–27 September at the UN Summit, world leaders will accept Sustainable Development Goals to set up the agenda for development cooperation until 2030. The goals underline the inextricable link between development and climate, downgrade the role of official development assistance at the expense of other financing, and engage new instruments and partners, including the private sector and civil society, in the mobilisation of resources. As a result, the EU will need to step up its support for developing countries for its own security and stability and Poland can recognise the importance of this dimension in its external relations.

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Cele zrównoważonego rozwoju: nowa agenda pomocy międzynarodowej po 2015 r.

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): Polish

Podczas szczytu ONZ w Nowym Jorku 25–27 września przywódcy krajów przyjmą nowe cele zrównoważonego rozwoju, które wyznaczą kierunki międzynarodowej współpracy rozwojowej do 2030 r. Nowa agenda zmierza do całkowitej eliminacji ubóstwa na świecie, podkreśla nierozerwalny związek między rozwojem a klimatem i ogranicza znaczenie pomocy rozwojowej na rzecz innych przepływów finansowych i zaangażowania nowych partnerów: biznesu i społeczeństwa dla mobilizowania zasobów. Podczas gdy UE wzmacnia swoje wsparcie dla krajów rozwijających się, także Polska powinna nadać większą wagę temu narzędziu polityki zagranicznej i lepiej je wykorzystać.

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Freeze the Grexit: Germany and the Latest Escalation of Eurozone Crisis

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

A Greek exit from the eurozone is an unfavourable scenario for Germany. It would threaten not only German debt and economic interests but also its political leadership in the European Union, which Berlin has developed in recent years. The safest option is a continuation of support for Greece: strong enough to not bankrupt it, and modest enough not to strengthen the Syriza government.

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Zamrozić Grexit. Niemcy wobec kryzysu strefy euro

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): Polish

Wyjście Grecji ze strefy euro jest scenariuszem niekorzystnym dla Niemiec. Zagrożone byłyby nie tylko niemieckie wierzytelności i interesy gospodarcze, lecz także pozycja politycznego lidera w Unii Europejskiej, którą Berlin wypracował w ostatnich latach. Najbezpieczniejsza opcja to kontynuacja wsparcia dla Grecji: na tyle znacznego, by nie zbankrutowała, i na tyle skromnego, by nie wzmacniać rządu Syrizy.

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TTIP and Third Countries: Making It More Transatlantic

Author(s): Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): English

Third countries worry that, if the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is agreed, it can have a serious negative impact, in particular decreasing their trade with the European Union and the United States. It will affect not only developing countries, but Western nations too. Concerns of partners of the U.S. and EU could be tackled by giving them an opportunity to join the agreement.

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TTIP a kraje trzecie: kto obawia się umowy transatlantyckiej

Author(s): Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): Polish

Kraje trzecie obawiają się, że Transatlantyckie Partnerstwo na rzecz Handlu i Inwestycji (TTIP) może mieć negatywne skutki, w szczególności ograniczyć ich wymianę handlową z Unią Europejską i Stanami Zjednoczonymi. Dotyczy to nie tylko krajów BRICS, lecz także bliskich sojuszników Zachodu. Obawy partnerów Unii i USA można jednak zmniejszyć przez wprowadzenie możliwości przystąpienia do umowy państw trzecich.

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Skup obligacji rządowych przez EBC – lepiej późno niż wcale

Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): Polish

W marcu br. Europejski Bank Centralny rozpoczął półtoraroczny skup obligacji rządowych z rynku wtórnego, zwany obiegowo poluzowaniem ilościowym. Program taki, zastosowany już przez USA, Wielką Brytanię i Japonię, ma na celu ożywienie gospodarki. W UE został jednak uruchomiony zbyt późno, więc jego efekty do końca 2016 r. będą ograniczone. Dla Polski oznacza on wzmocnienie złotego względem euro oraz zmniejszenie oprocentowania krajowego długu.

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Corporate Cultural Responsibility and the Promotion of Polish Business Abroad

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Culture can be a powerful marketing and branding tool for corporations and states alike. As Polish companies strengthen the Corporate Social Responsibility model while competing on global markets, they should also pay special attention to supporting culture. The stronger engagement of business in cultural diplomacy would bring extra resources and create a synergy between the efforts of the private and public sectors to build Poland as a positive brand. To facilitate this cooperation, the government can create new mechanisms and regulations that will attract greater business involvement in such promotion.

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Wsparcie kultury a promocja polskiego biznesu za granicą

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): Polish

Kultura może być znakomitym narzędziem marketingowym i wizerunkowym nie tylko dla państw, lecz także dla firm. Polskie przedsiębiorstwa, rozwijając model społecznej odpowiedzialności biznesu, powinny zwracać szczególną uwagę na wspieranie kultury i promocję kulturalną kraju za granicą. Dzięki temu będą mogły zbudować pozytywny wizerunek własny i wzmocnić markę Polski. Aby bardziej zaangażować biznes w zadania dyplomacji kulturalnej i wykorzystać efekt synergii sektora prywatnego i publicznego, rząd mógłby stworzyć nowe mechanizmy i regulacje ułatwiające tę współpracę.

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A Post-Pandemic Budget: The New Multiannual Financial Framework 2021–2027

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

The European Commission (EC) wants to issue bonds to finance the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic without reducing the budgets of existing common policies. The axis of the larger EU budget will be the implementation of two key projects launched before the pandemic: the green and digital transitions. The Commission proposal has elements that are attractive for both sides of the debate about the EU budget and it is, therefore, likely that the final outcome of the negotiations will not be much different.

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Budżet po pandemii – nowe wieloletnie ramy finansowe UE 2021–2027

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): Polish

Komisja Europejska chce wyemitować obligacje, by sfinansować program walki z recesją wywołaną przez pandemię bez konieczności redukowania nakładów na polityki wspólnotowe. Osią powiększonego budżetu Unii jest realizacja celów dwóch głównych projektów Komisji, przyjętych jeszcze przed wybuchem pandemii – zielonej i cyfrowej transformacji. Propozycja KE zawiera atrakcyjne elementy dla każdej ze stron debaty o budżecie UE i można przypuszczać, że ostateczny kompromis nie będzie znacząco od niej odbiegał.

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Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports Require Further Refining

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Western and other states’ restriction of imports of Russian oil and sanctions on its oil trade had little impact on Russia’s budget revenues in 2022. This was because Russia found new customers for its crude, mainly in Asia. The effects of the restrictions only started to become apparent from the beginning of this year, but without a further, significant reduction in this source of income, Russia’s ability to fund its aggression against Ukraine will not be weakened. The best way to increase the effectiveness of the sanctions would be to further reduce the price ceiling on Russian oil and take steps to increase the oil supply on the global market from alternative sources.

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Business and Consumer Protection Must Evolve after Europe’s Energy Crisis

Author(s): Piotr Dzierżanowski,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

The energy crisis has hit businesses and consumers in the EU hard. Member States took remedial action and the European Commission implemented solutions at the Community level. The EU managed to avoid economic collapse and maintain the stability needed to support Ukraine and to face Russia. Further countermeasures will need to be taken this summer to avoid another energy crisis in the winter of 2023- 2024.

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Developing Countries on the Brink of a Debt Crisis

Author(s): Piotr Dzierżanowski / Language(s): English

The end of expansionary monetary policies in developed countries, the decline in financing from China, and the economic turbulence resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine increase the risk of a major international debt crisis for developing countries. Such crises tend to spill over and the number of defaulting countries increases. While the threat of the destabilisation of the economies of developed countries remains low, the states may be affected by the consequences of the crisis, such as increased migration pressures.

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China Tempting EU Members and the Effect on Transatlantic Relations

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China seeks to maintain differences within the EU, particularly regarding transatlantic cooperation towards China. Some EU countries and institutions do not perceive China as a threat and look cautiously at the reduction of economic ties with it. Others regard transatlantic cooperation, including vis-à-vis China, as an important element in strengthening European security. These differing approaches limit the ability of the EU and the U.S. to interact in areas related both to Sino-Russian cooperation and China’s escalation in the Indo-Pacific.

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The EU’s Global Gateway Strategy: Opportunities and Challenges

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

The Global Gateway (GG) strategy aims to increase the EU’s infrastructure connections on a global scale. The strategy might lead to improving the Union’s image, for example, in its immediate vicinity, and increasing the participation of Member State entities in the implementation of EU projects. The challenge is how to effectively coordinate the strategy amongst EU institutions and get private sector cooperation. For Poland, it will be important to accelerate investments in the Eastern Partnership (EaP) region and to diversify transport corridors from the EU to China.

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A struggle to survive. Ukraine’s economy in wartime

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

The ongoing war in Ukraine has had a disastrous impact on the country’s economy. Its GDP has fallen by approximately a third, and material losses due to the destruction of infrastructure have exceeded US$100 billion and are rising every day. The high inflation rate, the weakened currency and the very high unemployment rate are taking an increasing toll on Ukrainian society. The functioning of the country, including the disbursement of social benefits, salaries and pensions, depends almost entirely on foreign financial assistance. Even though international support for Ukraine has been growing, it remains insufficient, which has forced the government to radically increase public debt. Despite the observed positive trends, such as increased exports (in particular agricultural goods) and the stabilised fuels market, no substantial improvement in the economic situation should be expected before the end of the war. In fact, it seems more likely that it will deteriorate further, given that Russia will most likely continue its attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, and the future of maritime food exports is open to question.

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A Technological Arms Race: Chip Manufacturing

Author(s): Oskar Szydłowski / Language(s): English

The supply gap in the chip market caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the chips’ growing role in the global economy, as well as in international relations. Countries where chipmakers are headquartered are restricting exports of this good, and the competition for access to these products has opened a new phase in the technology race between China and the U.S. Currently, the U.S. is emerging victorious, significantly limiting China’s ability to modernise. The European Union plans to cooperate with Taiwan and the U.S. on chip supplies and is working on production technology.

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