(026) BEYOND MAASTRICHT: A NEW DEAL FOR THE EUROZONE

Author(s): Thomas Klau,François Godement,José Ignacio Torreblanca / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2010

Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union has been an extraordinary achievement. But the events of 2010 have made it apparent that its political governance was designed for fair weather. Having reluctantly taken the first steps this year, European leaders must now make it storm-proof. The move to an agreement to establish a permanent European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to replace the EFSF in 2013 represents a fundamental and encouraging change in the approach of European leaders to the future of the eurozone. But the new model of eurozone governance currently envisaged by the EU, which is based once more on the Maastricht Treaty, will be vulnerable to failure for the same reasons as its predecessors. If Europe wants to remain a serious player and help shape the twenty-first century, it should instead go beyond Maastricht and finally build a monetary and economic system strong enough to last. There are at least three other solutions – Eurobonds, a euro-TARP and an expansion of the federal budget. Yet each of them is opposed above all by Germany, the eurozone’s dominant power, which feels its robust growth vindicates its own economic model even though its political model for a rule- and sanctions-based governance of the eurozone looks to have failed. Europe now faces a choice between a future of permanent tensions within the EU and a new grand bargain. Europe needs clearheaded, forward-looking German leadership that would anchor a European Germany in a more German Europe.

(045) SAVING THE EURO: WHAT’S CHINA’S PRICE?

Author(s): François Godement / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2011

Although Europe needs external lending and the show of confidence it brings, its attempt to persuade China and other emerging economies to enlarge the resources of the EFSF is likely to bring only limited results. However, there are various other scenarios under which China and other investors may lend to Europe. The best case scenario from Europe’s point of view is that it would increase the lending capacity of the EFSF or the ECB and turn them into a super borrower and lender. But this scenario is unlikely to become a reality because it requires a “big bang”-like reinvention of European public finance for which there is no commitment. More likely is that the ECB will underwrite a new IMF fund dedicated to the support or rescue of European member states. This would mean a larger Chinese contribution in IMF decisionmaking. Alternatively, China could seek to lend to Europe in renminbi, thus transferring the exchange risk to the European borrower. Such a deal would also offer China an unprecedented guaran-tee against any depreciation of the euro. Finally, the euro could collapse altogether and the IMF could be called in – the worst case scenario. In any case, Europe should acknowledge the interdependence between it and China and therefore its need for external capital.

(Нео)протекционизам и светска економска криза

Author(s): Branislav M. Pelevic,Vladimir M. Ristanovic / Language(s): Serbian / Issue: 4/2011

The collapse of international trade is aftermath of global economic crisis in 2008. Decline in trade was even higher compared with the period of the Great Depression and, moreover, international trade has recorded a much greater decline than the world’s gross domestic product. Previous causality has been confirmed in Serbia and global crisis hit the economy of Serbia with the lag of one quarter. Initial fall in output and trade was smaller in the world than in Serbia. Growingprotectionism is not among the main causes of the collapse of the trade, but it is its essential companion. Protectionism, however, can provide positive effects only in short term. It leads to a decrease in exports, employment and income in other countries, but will invariably have feedback - leading to the fall for products imported from countries that increased protection. Opening the market undoubtedly contributes to more efficient and dynamic growth.

10 lat członkostwa Polski w Unii Europejskiej. Skutki włączenia do jednolitego rynku europejskiego

Author(s): Malgorzata Czerminska / Language(s): Polish / Issue: 1/2014

The inclusion of Poland to the common market for goods meant the abolition of customs duties and quantitative restrictions on agricultural products in mutual trade with the countries of the European Union (customs duties on industrial goods have already been abolished by the Europe Agreement) and the application of the Common Customs Tariff on imports from third countries. Freedom of movement of goods after the accession to the EU accounted for Polish entrepreneurs a chance, because the fulfillment of EU norms and standards means full access to the common market, amounting to more than 500 million inhabitants. Particularly noticeable was the impact of accession on foreign trade, which, thanks to the membership not only gained easier access to the common market, but also new opportunities to increase trade with third countries. Since Polish accession to the EU gradually increased trade in agricultural products as well as their participation in the Polish foreign trade. Emigration of Poles also increased significantly, especially to countries that with effect from 1 May 2004 opened their labor markets, namely the United Kingdom, Ireland. In the final evaluation of the benefits of joining the common market and free movement of goods, persons, services and capital far outweigh, in both the scale of the economy and at the micro level, the costs associated with membership in the European common market.

10 Years of EU Membership: Diverging Performances in New Member States Agriculture

Author(s): Attila Jambor,Miklós SOMAI,Sándor Kovács / Language(s): English / Issue: 05/2016

More than 10 years have passed since the 2004 accession round to the European Union. The tenth anniversary provides a good opportunity for stocktaking and assessing the agricultural developments of the New Member States (NMS) in light of the latest data available. The aim of this paper is to assess agricultural performances of NMS and to identify the winners and losers of accession in this regard. By ranking individual country performances using Parallel Factor Analysis (PARAFAC), our results suggest that Poland and the Baltic countries can be treated as the winners of EU accession in agriculture, while Romania and Bulgaria proved to have used their potentials to the least. Results also suggest that focusing on high value added agri-food products proved to be a good strategy to reach development in the agriculture sector, while those countries concentrating on the production of agri-food raw materials turned out to be lagged behind.

100 sesji komitetu prawnego międzynarodowej organizacji morskiej – podsumowanie prac

Author(s): Dorota Lost-Sieminska / Language(s): Polish / Issue: XXXII/2014

The article presents the history of the activities of the Legal Committee (LEG) of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The Author tries to assess the LEG’s work input in the context of legislation created within the IMO and points to changes in the activities of the Legal Committee, which refer to the promotion of the effective implementation of IMO conventions.

1989: Szempontok a rendszerváltás globális politikai gazdaságtanához

Author(s): Márk Áron Éber,Ágnes Gagyi,Tamás Gerocs,Csaba Jelinek,András Pinkasz / Language(s): Hungarian / Issue: 21/2014

This article rethinks 1989 – the year commonly treated as a milestone of regime change. As contrary to this narrow view, and with the aim of laying out the conceptual foundations of possible future research projects, we give a short overview of the way Hungary became incorporated into the capitalist world system and of the key global, economic, and geopolitical factors that influenced its dependent development. For this we present a historically sensitive, global political economic narrative within which we pay special attention to the way public debt had been accumulated and how this, in turn, shaped Hungary’s position within the world system. After our analysis of the regime change we continue with an overview of the main structural dynamics of the last two decades. Finally, through two short case studies, we show how our perspective can throw new light on the political ideologies and economic policies of the era. The accumulation of state debt was not a Hungarian specificity: instead, we argue that it was rather a result of the global restructuring process and of its concomitant effect of decreasing national state-sovereignty. In the following manner, we also argue that the emergence of debates (which were central in evaluating the regime change, revolving around issues like „democracy” vs. „dictatorship” or „planning” vs. „market”) can be better understood within our global, historical, and political economic analytical framework. In the long run we identify two economic development strategies – namely, the strategy of liberalization and the strategy of protectionism – both structured around the, nonetheless entirely unfulfilled, hope of overcoming Hungary’s semi-peripheral position by „catching up” to its Western neighbors. These strategies then can be analyzed on the base of how they relate to global cycles of accumulation; how their shifts were influenced by changes in the world system; and, in turn, how these strategies organized both various elite projects shaped by global cyclical dynamics and the interpretations about our historically unfolding dependent position.

2008 Krizinin Bulaşma Etkisi: Bir Finansal Kriz Göstergesi Olarak Hisse Senedi Fiyat Endeksi Üzerine Bir Analiz

Author(s): Ceren Kocabas / Language(s): Turkish / Issue: Special/2016

Contagion can be expressed as the spillover of any shock across countries, and a change in market sensibility. In this study, in addition to the expression of the notion of contagion within the literature, there will be an analysis of the 2008 crisis using monthly data of the variable of stock price indices from January 2004 to December 2013 using the MA(1)-GARCH(1,1)-M method. According to the results obtained, it was observed that there was an increase in stock price volatility in the crisis period, and it was determined that most countries in different parts of the world were affected by the crisis which arose in the American mortgage market, and that the contagion occurred because of the financial channel.

2008 küresel krizinin turizm istatistikleri üzerindeki etkisinin çok değişkenli istatistiksel teknikler ve topsis metodu ile analizi

Author(s): Selay Giray,Özlem Yorulmaz,Özlem Ergüt / Language(s): Turkish / Issue: 2/2016

The purpose of this study is to evaluate tourism performance rankings of 145 countries considering three main criteria (tourism revenue, tourism expenditure and number of tourist arrivals) and the effects of 2008 global economic crisis. In this study, classification and rankings of countries and the place of Turkey in the rankings have been investigated using factor analysis, cluster analysis and TOPSIS method for the years between2006-2012. Furthermore, the analysis has been deepened for Turkey, the effects of crisis on Turkish tourism companies have been examined using their financial ratios. Findings reveal that country classifications and rankings are compatible for period before economic crisis and period after economic crisis. The results of both Factor Analysis and TOPSIS indicate that France, China, United States and Spain are belong to ranking of first 10 countries. The classification of Turkey remains the same before and after the crisis, however after the economic crisis, the ranking of Turkey has been moved up according to Factor Analysis and TOPSIS. The volatilities of financial ratios of Turkish tourism companies have been decreased after the period of economic crisis. The purpose of this study is to evaluate tourism performance rankings of 145 countries considering three main criteria (tourism revenue, tourism expenditure and number of tourist arrivals) and the effects of 2008 global economic crisis. In this study, classification and rankings of countries and the place of Turkey in the rankings have been investigated using factor analysis, cluster analysis and TOPSIS method for the years between2006-2012. Furthermore, the analysis has been deepened for Turkey, the effects of crisis on Turkish tourism companies have been examined using their financial ratios. Findings reveal that country classifications and rankings are compatible for period before economic crisis and period after economic crisis. The results of both Factor Analysis and TOPSIS indicate that France, China, United States and Spain are belong to ranking of first 10 countries. The classification of Turkey remains the same before and after the crisis, however after the economic crisis, the ranking of Turkey has been moved up according to Factor Analysis and TOPSIS. The volatilities of financial ratios of Turkish tourism companies have been decreased after the period of economic crisis.

2013-2015 Yılları Katılım Ve Geleneksel Bankacılık Karşılaştırması: Türkiye Örneği

Author(s): Selçuk Bakan / Language(s): Turkish / Issue: 36/2017

The fact that the interest, which is a must in the banking sector, is forbidden in the Islamic religion directs individuals to interest-free banking in Muslim societies. This case leads to an increased interest in the Islamic finance and Islamic banking in the world economy. In Turkey, the participation banking sector, which is the manifestation of interest-free banking, has demonstrated a rapid growth in recent years. This study provides information about Islamic finance, Islamic banking and participation banking, analyses some financial titles about the participation banking sector in Turkey between 2013 and 2015, compares and contrasts between general banking and participation banking, and analyses the state of participation banking sector. Findings show that while there was a decline in the participation banking sector in 2015 compared to 2013, there was a development in the traditional banking data in the same years. It is believed that the transfer of Bank Asya, one of the participation banks, from the Bank to the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund by the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency and the subsequent process has an important effect in this decline. If necessary measures are taken for the participation banking sector and if the negative issues are not repeated, it can be said that this sector which is developing all over the world can continue its development in Turkey as well.

21. YÜZYIL ENERJİ SAVAŞLARINDA TÜRK CUMHURİYETLERİ’NİN YERİ ve ÖNEMİ

Author(s): Çagri Kürsat Yüce / Language(s): Turkish / Issue: 17/2013

Energy consumption and the need to continue on a global scale, as in the past and in recent years. Oil and natural gas will continue to be the primary energy source until 2030 despite all the alternatives to meet this need. As a result of this situation, energy resources will continue to be one of the most important determinants of the twenty-first century. In addition, at least a half century, dominance of oil in the field of energy will continue to. Energy experts frequently reported that the “cheap oil” era has ended and price volatility in the oil market will continue to today.The Caucasus and Turkestan (Central Asia) regions including the Turkish Republics maintained its importance throughout history due to various reasons. Today, however, due to the rich energy resources, especially oil and natural gas, they took part in the world’s agenda. In this study, the important actors of the energy wars and reserve status of the energy resources of the Turkish Republics in the Caucasus and Turkestan regions were briefly described. In addition, as well as importance of energy resources for the region and the world’s nations, beginning in the late twentieth century and growing competition over energy resources of the Caspian Sea were discussed today.

36th Osijek - Pforzheim Symposium Review

Author(s): Ana Pap / Language(s): English / Issue: 2/2015

A 360 Degree Overview on Governance

Author(s): Marcela Mitri?a,Amelia Diaconu,Alexandru Bodislav / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2017

This paper represents a scientific overview of the idea of governance and its influence in the global economy, in social policy and in the way the political framework is developed by using the concept and its nearby equivalents. During this paper we will try to emphasize how governance emerged and how it improved during time and also how it accentuated some differences when it comes to implementing some of its key features.

A centrum hitele: A magyar állam külső eladósodásának történetéről (Mong A.: Kádár hitele; Mihályi P.: A magyar gazdaság útja az adósságválságba)

Author(s): Márk Áron Éber / Language(s): Hungarian / Issue: 21/2014

A comparative analysis of the public deficits run by the old and new EU member states in the context of the global financial crisis

Author(s): Marius Sorin Dinca,Gheorghita Dinca,Ileana Tache / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2011

The issues of government debt and deficits became a current component of the public finances of virtually all the countries in the world since the Great Depression in the 1930’s. The EU countries do not diverge from this picture and most of them display complex financial problems, in which consistent budgetary deficits have combined with negative net exports, with the ageing and pension system challenges and recently with the global financial crisis. In our paper we analyze the evolution of the public deficits run by the old and new EU member states, trying to identify their main causes and to propose several courses of action in order to control the deficits. We started with a structural analysis of the income side of the budget, especially for direct and indirect taxes, followed by a quantitative analysis of the growing deficits in the EU countries. We identified some widespread causes of the public deficits, such as the growing share of the public social expenditures and of the public wages, or the increase in public investments. Finally we presented some solutions for fiscal consolidation, which we think is essential in order to ensure the survival of the Euro and of the European Union.

A comparison of global financial market recovery after the 2008 global financial crisis

Author(s): Jennifer Foo,Dorota Witkowska / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2017

The Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 plunged countries into a Great Recession and focused the world’s attention on the global stock markets. The global contagion has a major impact on global stock markets, with the U.S. DJIA falling to 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009 from a high of 14,164.53 on October 9, 2007, with a loss of more than 54%. Other stock markets also had a precipitous drop during the financial crisis. However, some equity markets have recovered while others have not. This paper looks at how global markets compared in their recovery. This paper also investigates the advanced countries’ recovery relative to the emerging and developing countries in the aftermath of the financial crisis and their ability to climb back to the pre-financial crisis levels. Analysis is provided for 31 stock indexes from January 2005 to March 2013. In 2013 the majority of analysed stock markets recovered from the crises regardless of if they belong to the group of developed or emerging markets.

A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THE POLICY OPTIONS TOWARDS THE UNDECLARED ECONOMY

Author(s): Colin C. Williams / Language(s): English / Issue: 4/2014

To evaluate critically the policy options available for tackling the undeclared economy, this paper commences by evaluating the implications of four hypothetical policy choices, namely doing nothing, de-regulating the declared economy, eradicating the undeclared economy, or moving undeclared work into the declared economy. Finding that a combination of all these is required, a typology of policy measures for tackling the declared economy is then outlined. Drawing inspiration from the literature on eliciting behavior change in organizations, this identifies that the shift from direct controls (deterrents and incentives) to indirect controls (which engender a commitment to individual self-governance) can be scaled up to the societal-level to elicit behavior change in relation to undeclared work. To shift towards the pursuit of individual self-governance as a means of achieving collective self-governance, a multi-pronged approach is called for which seeks to change both the codified laws and regulations of formal institutions and the norms, values and beliefs that constitute the informal institutions of a society in order to create symmetry between them. The paper concludes by discussing the various ways of combining and sequencing direct and indirect controls in a manner that foregrounds the centrality of individual self-governance to the achievement of collective self-governance.

A drastic reorganization of industry in the world. what is the driving force for the reorganization?

Author(s): Shinji Naruo / Language(s): English / Issue: 11/2012

The purpose of this paper is to show the method and model to analyze the driving force to reorganize the industry. Due to the global economy, many large scale M&A and affiliations are happening in the world. The business alliance and integration are happening in the advanced countries, the transition countries, and the developing countries. There are some factors to impact the reorganization of industry.One is government policy. Another is the market economy. The government has the industrial policy. It guides and leads the industrial structure of the country. Advanced countries had experienced the advancement of industrial structure. On the process of industrial structure advancement, the country improved national income (GNP). Through the process, the enterprise in the industry had experienced integration and separation in the industry. The theory of industrial structure supports the framework of this approach.On the other hand, the market economy also had influenced to the reorganization of industry. Business cycle, competition, and innovation had influenced the reorganization of industry. In capitalism, the share holder of the company pushes the company to maximize the profit. The shareholder’s pressure could influence the decision of M&A.The theory of industrial organization supports the framework of this approach.The enterprise is in the business environment. Top management of the company is responsible to make a decision to merge or acquire the company. However, the decision is affected by other factors out of business environment. The shareholder influenced the individual enterprise decision. The government policy influenced the industrial structure. This could impose the enterprise to accept the amalgamation in the industry. Both of two influence the reorganization of industry.

A frame procedure for multiple criteria selection of it products and services

Author(s): Vesna Cancer / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2013

In an information society, the Information Technology (IT) infrastructure of enterprises isimportant for their performance. Since in the last few decades the Multiple Criteria Decision Making(MCDM) methods have already turned out to be very applicable in solving problems, this articleexplores the particularities of the frame procedure for MCDM by using the group of methods based onassigning weights in the selection of IT products and services in enterprises. Special attention is givento the methods for establishing the judgements on criteria‘s importance, based on the interval scale.The procedure is completed for considering interactions – synergies and redundancies – amongcriteria, which can strengthen the decision making basis in the selection of the most appropriate ITproduct or service. The applicability of the above mentioned frame procedure is illustrated via a reallifecase – the selection of the most appropriate storage array.

A Hybrid Approach to Predicting Foreign Exchange Rates

Author(s): Sorin-Manuel Delureanu / Language(s): English / Issue: 26/2016

Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) are two nonparametric methods, based upon a matrix spectral decomposition. In this paper, a hybrid ICA-SSA approach is used for predicting foreign exchange rates. The primarily role of ICA is to reveal certain fundamental factors behind several parallel series of foreign exchange rates. More accurate predictions can be performed via these independent components, after their separation. MSSA is employed to compute forecasts of independent factors. Afterwards, these forecasts of underlying factors are remixed into the forecasts of observable foreign exchange rates.