(026) BEYOND MAASTRICHT: A NEW DEAL FOR THE EUROZONE

Author(s): Thomas Klau,François Godement,José Ignacio Torreblanca / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2010

Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union has been an extraordinary achievement. But the events of 2010 have made it apparent that its political governance was designed for fair weather. Having reluctantly taken the first steps this year, European leaders must now make it storm-proof. The move to an agreement to establish a permanent European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to replace the EFSF in 2013 represents a fundamental and encouraging change in the approach of European leaders to the future of the eurozone. But the new model of eurozone governance currently envisaged by the EU, which is based once more on the Maastricht Treaty, will be vulnerable to failure for the same reasons as its predecessors. If Europe wants to remain a serious player and help shape the twenty-first century, it should instead go beyond Maastricht and finally build a monetary and economic system strong enough to last. There are at least three other solutions – Eurobonds, a euro-TARP and an expansion of the federal budget. Yet each of them is opposed above all by Germany, the eurozone’s dominant power, which feels its robust growth vindicates its own economic model even though its political model for a rule- and sanctions-based governance of the eurozone looks to have failed. Europe now faces a choice between a future of permanent tensions within the EU and a new grand bargain. Europe needs clearheaded, forward-looking German leadership that would anchor a European Germany in a more German Europe.

(045) SAVING THE EURO: WHAT’S CHINA’S PRICE?

Author(s): François Godement / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2011

Although Europe needs external lending and the show of confidence it brings, its attempt to persuade China and other emerging economies to enlarge the resources of the EFSF is likely to bring only limited results. However, there are various other scenarios under which China and other investors may lend to Europe. The best case scenario from Europe’s point of view is that it would increase the lending capacity of the EFSF or the ECB and turn them into a super borrower and lender. But this scenario is unlikely to become a reality because it requires a “big bang”-like reinvention of European public finance for which there is no commitment. More likely is that the ECB will underwrite a new IMF fund dedicated to the support or rescue of European member states. This would mean a larger Chinese contribution in IMF decisionmaking. Alternatively, China could seek to lend to Europe in renminbi, thus transferring the exchange risk to the European borrower. Such a deal would also offer China an unprecedented guaran-tee against any depreciation of the euro. Finally, the euro could collapse altogether and the IMF could be called in – the worst case scenario. In any case, Europe should acknowledge the interdependence between it and China and therefore its need for external capital.

(Нео)протекционизам и светска економска криза

Author(s): Branislav M. Pelevic,Vladimir M. Ristanovic / Language(s): Serbian / Issue: 4/2011

The collapse of international trade is aftermath of global economic crisis in 2008. Decline in trade was even higher compared with the period of the Great Depression and, moreover, international trade has recorded a much greater decline than the world’s gross domestic product. Previous causality has been confirmed in Serbia and global crisis hit the economy of Serbia with the lag of one quarter. Initial fall in output and trade was smaller in the world than in Serbia. Growingprotectionism is not among the main causes of the collapse of the trade, but it is its essential companion. Protectionism, however, can provide positive effects only in short term. It leads to a decrease in exports, employment and income in other countries, but will invariably have feedback - leading to the fall for products imported from countries that increased protection. Opening the market undoubtedly contributes to more efficient and dynamic growth.

10 Years of EU Membership: Diverging Performances in New Member States Agriculture

Author(s): Attila Jambor,Miklós SOMAI,Sándor Kovács / Language(s): English / Issue: 05/2016

More than 10 years have passed since the 2004 accession round to the European Union. The tenth anniversary provides a good opportunity for stocktaking and assessing the agricultural developments of the New Member States (NMS) in light of the latest data available. The aim of this paper is to assess agricultural performances of NMS and to identify the winners and losers of accession in this regard. By ranking individual country performances using Parallel Factor Analysis (PARAFAC), our results suggest that Poland and the Baltic countries can be treated as the winners of EU accession in agriculture, while Romania and Bulgaria proved to have used their potentials to the least. Results also suggest that focusing on high value added agri-food products proved to be a good strategy to reach development in the agriculture sector, while those countries concentrating on the production of agri-food raw materials turned out to be lagged behind.

100 sesji komitetu prawnego międzynarodowej organizacji morskiej – podsumowanie prac

Author(s): Dorota Lost-Sieminska / Language(s): Polish / Issue: XXXII/2014

The article presents the history of the activities of the Legal Committee (LEG) of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The Author tries to assess the LEG’s work input in the context of legislation created within the IMO and points to changes in the activities of the Legal Committee, which refer to the promotion of the effective implementation of IMO conventions.

21. YÜZYIL ENERJİ SAVAŞLARINDA TÜRK CUMHURİYETLERİ’NİN YERİ ve ÖNEMİ

Author(s): Çagri Kürsat Yüce / Language(s): Turkish / Issue: 17/2013

Energy consumption and the need to continue on a global scale, as in the past and in recent years. Oil and natural gas will continue to be the primary energy source until 2030 despite all the alternatives to meet this need. As a result of this situation, energy resources will continue to be one of the most important determinants of the twenty-first century. In addition, at least a half century, dominance of oil in the field of energy will continue to. Energy experts frequently reported that the “cheap oil” era has ended and price volatility in the oil market will continue to today.The Caucasus and Turkestan (Central Asia) regions including the Turkish Republics maintained its importance throughout history due to various reasons. Today, however, due to the rich energy resources, especially oil and natural gas, they took part in the world’s agenda. In this study, the important actors of the energy wars and reserve status of the energy resources of the Turkish Republics in the Caucasus and Turkestan regions were briefly described. In addition, as well as importance of energy resources for the region and the world’s nations, beginning in the late twentieth century and growing competition over energy resources of the Caspian Sea were discussed today.

36th Osijek - Pforzheim Symposium Review

Author(s): Ana Pap / Language(s): English / Issue: 2/2015

A comparative analysis of the public deficits run by the old and new EU member states in the context of the global financial crisis

Author(s): Marius Sorin Dinca,Gheorghita Dinca,Ileana Tache / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2011

The issues of government debt and deficits became a current component of the public finances of virtually all the countries in the world since the Great Depression in the 1930’s. The EU countries do not diverge from this picture and most of them display complex financial problems, in which consistent budgetary deficits have combined with negative net exports, with the ageing and pension system challenges and recently with the global financial crisis. In our paper we analyze the evolution of the public deficits run by the old and new EU member states, trying to identify their main causes and to propose several courses of action in order to control the deficits. We started with a structural analysis of the income side of the budget, especially for direct and indirect taxes, followed by a quantitative analysis of the growing deficits in the EU countries. We identified some widespread causes of the public deficits, such as the growing share of the public social expenditures and of the public wages, or the increase in public investments. Finally we presented some solutions for fiscal consolidation, which we think is essential in order to ensure the survival of the Euro and of the European Union.

A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THE POLICY OPTIONS TOWARDS THE UNDECLARED ECONOMY

Author(s): Colin C. Williams / Language(s): English / Issue: 4/2014

To evaluate critically the policy options available for tackling the undeclared economy, this paper commences by evaluating the implications of four hypothetical policy choices, namely doing nothing, de-regulating the declared economy, eradicating the undeclared economy, or moving undeclared work into the declared economy. Finding that a combination of all these is required, a typology of policy measures for tackling the declared economy is then outlined. Drawing inspiration from the literature on eliciting behavior change in organizations, this identifies that the shift from direct controls (deterrents and incentives) to indirect controls (which engender a commitment to individual self-governance) can be scaled up to the societal-level to elicit behavior change in relation to undeclared work. To shift towards the pursuit of individual self-governance as a means of achieving collective self-governance, a multi-pronged approach is called for which seeks to change both the codified laws and regulations of formal institutions and the norms, values and beliefs that constitute the informal institutions of a society in order to create symmetry between them. The paper concludes by discussing the various ways of combining and sequencing direct and indirect controls in a manner that foregrounds the centrality of individual self-governance to the achievement of collective self-governance.

A drastic reorganization of industry in the world. what is the driving force for the reorganization?

Author(s): Shinji Naruo / Language(s): English / Issue: 11/2012

The purpose of this paper is to show the method and model to analyze the driving force to reorganize the industry. Due to the global economy, many large scale M&A and affiliations are happening in the world. The business alliance and integration are happening in the advanced countries, the transition countries, and the developing countries. There are some factors to impact the reorganization of industry.One is government policy. Another is the market economy. The government has the industrial policy. It guides and leads the industrial structure of the country. Advanced countries had experienced the advancement of industrial structure. On the process of industrial structure advancement, the country improved national income (GNP). Through the process, the enterprise in the industry had experienced integration and separation in the industry. The theory of industrial structure supports the framework of this approach.On the other hand, the market economy also had influenced to the reorganization of industry. Business cycle, competition, and innovation had influenced the reorganization of industry. In capitalism, the share holder of the company pushes the company to maximize the profit. The shareholder’s pressure could influence the decision of M&A.The theory of industrial organization supports the framework of this approach.The enterprise is in the business environment. Top management of the company is responsible to make a decision to merge or acquire the company. However, the decision is affected by other factors out of business environment. The shareholder influenced the individual enterprise decision. The government policy influenced the industrial structure. This could impose the enterprise to accept the amalgamation in the industry. Both of two influence the reorganization of industry.

A frame procedure for multiple criteria selection of it products and services

Author(s): Vesna Cancer / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2013

In an information society, the Information Technology (IT) infrastructure of enterprises isimportant for their performance. Since in the last few decades the Multiple Criteria Decision Making(MCDM) methods have already turned out to be very applicable in solving problems, this articleexplores the particularities of the frame procedure for MCDM by using the group of methods based onassigning weights in the selection of IT products and services in enterprises. Special attention is givento the methods for establishing the judgements on criteria‘s importance, based on the interval scale.The procedure is completed for considering interactions – synergies and redundancies – amongcriteria, which can strengthen the decision making basis in the selection of the most appropriate ITproduct or service. The applicability of the above mentioned frame procedure is illustrated via a reallifecase – the selection of the most appropriate storage array.

A Hybrid Approach to Predicting Foreign Exchange Rates

Author(s): Sorin-Manuel Delureanu / Language(s): English / Issue: 26/2016

Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) are two nonparametric methods, based upon a matrix spectral decomposition. In this paper, a hybrid ICA-SSA approach is used for predicting foreign exchange rates. The primarily role of ICA is to reveal certain fundamental factors behind several parallel series of foreign exchange rates. More accurate predictions can be performed via these independent components, after their separation. MSSA is employed to compute forecasts of independent factors. Afterwards, these forecasts of underlying factors are remixed into the forecasts of observable foreign exchange rates.

A managerial perspective on international marketing research

Author(s): Constantin Sasu / Language(s): English / Issue: Spec/2011

Marketing research is the primary mechanism through which companies understand their current, as well as potential, customers. As companies contemplate the global marketplace, they must consider how domestic market research differs when conducted in international markets. Designing a specific research methodology is the way to achieve this aim. This article discuss the context for international market research and provide a framework for conducting international market research projects. Additionally, there will be presented several factors that should be considered by marketers who engage in global market research studies. Particular attention is paid to the nuances related to primary data collection, measurement issues and questionnaire construction.

A NEW APPROACH TO FINANCIAL REGULATION AT THE EUROPEAN LEVEL

Author(s): Ioana Laura Valeanu / Language(s): English / Issue: 4/2015

With the recent financial and economic crisis onset, a fragility of the financial system became apparent, under the form of a series of vulnerabilities and failures with a strong destabilizing impact on the economy. In this context, a new approach to financial stability has outlined itself, pleading for a more extensive financial regulation and macro-prudential supervision, complementary to the micro-prudential one. The objectives of this article are to highlight the context and need for a new financial regulatory framework and underline the main problems of the banking system the new European regulations addresses.

A NEW GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK FOR THE WORLD IN CRISIS

Author(s): Miroslava Filipovic / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 0

The current financial crisis saw numerous organizations’ plans to handle international finance and create conditions for strong, sustainable and balanced growth, with G20 at the centre point of this process. The crisis spill-over has clearly demonstrated a rising level of interdependence in the world economy. This chapter aims at evaluating a new global regulatory scheme since the 2008 Washington summit of G20, through reviewing shifts in political responses and changing agendas. Despite of a certain level of success in deliberating and direction setting on issues of global concern, the implementation of the summits’ conclusions has proved uneven, pointing to significant differences of the major actors’ agendas and priorities. From that aspect, the global economy still has to wait for new regulatory arrangements to emerge. Even though, the G20 through its agenda might have a unique opportunity to pool resources, confront views and opinions and press for a higher level of compliance with internationally agreed goals and principles that might induce longer term and beneficial effects for the world economy and finance.

A Review of the State-of-the-Art Research on the Twin Deficit Hypothesis

Author(s): Veronika Šulíková,Vladimír Gazda / Language(s): English / Issue: 4 (42)/2016

The aim of this paper is to find the most important patterns in published papers on the twin deficits. The research methodology includes text-mining analysis covering all the relevant Research Papers in Economics (RePEc) works. It turned out that Ricardian equivalence and the Mundell-Fleming approach dominate twin deficit research, especially in developed countries. The current account targeting hypothesis and bi-directional causality are confirmed mainly in developing countries. As regards the methodology, the most used are cointegration techniques and Granger causality testing. The percentage of papers proving Ricardian equivalence did not change during the analysed period, while the percentage of those confirming the Mundell-Fleming model decreased when using more recent data

A rising tide of wealth inequalities

Author(s): Joanna Pietrzak / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2016

‘A rising tide lifts all boats’ – the quote from the speech by J.F. Kennedy in September 1960 has been widely used to describe the idea that when an economy is performing well, all people will benefit from it. The theory assuming that economic growth will finally bring about greater justice and prosperity for all still attracts supporters from different backgrounds. There is little doubt, however, that it doesn’t work that way. Economic data show increasing income and wealth disparities in the majority of countries, leaving no doubt that wealth creation mechanisms do not work equally for all. This paper examines key contemporary wealth drivers in an attempt to evaluate their influence on creating wealth inequalities. The analysis is based on vast literature studies, including the latest discussion on Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Looking at the issue from a historical perspective, we come to the conclusion that private ownership rights and capital resources play a decisive role as wealth creation factors. Policy changes, such as deregulation, privatization, and financial secrecy, make the distribution of wealth skewed towards the wealthy, contributing to growing wealth inequalities. The aim of this paper is to highlight the fact that the underlying cause of income and wealth inequalities lies in the uneven access to private ownership of different assets. Further, it aims at provoking a discussion on the right remedies to be undertaken to tackle this problem.

A Spectral Decomposition Approach to Separating Independent Factors: The Case of Foreign Exchange Rates

Author(s): Sorin-Manuel Delureanu / Language(s): English / Issue: 25/2015

In this paper, Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is addressed for revealing fundamental factors behind 6 parallel series of foreign exchange rates. ICA is belonging to the blind source separation (BSS) area of research. Each measured signal is considered a mixture of several distinct underlying factors. Separating such fundamental causal factors is very important for multivariate financial time series analysis, in order to explain past co-movements and to predict future evolution.

A synthesis of the Heckscher-Ohlin and Oniki-Uzawa trade models with heterogeneous tastes, different technologies, and endogenous wealth

Author(s): Wei-Bin Zhang / Language(s): English / Issue: 3/2015

This paper examines the role of preferences and technological differences between two countries in determining dynamics of global wealth and pattern of trade in a reformed H-O model of international trade. The paper builds a trade model with endogenous wealth accumulation and labor and capital distribution between sectors and between countries under perfectly competitive markets and free trade. The model is based the H-O model, the Solow-Uzawa neoclassical growth model and the Oniki-Uzawa trade model. Each country has three sectors, producing one globally homogenous tradable capital good, specifying in producing one-tradable commodity, and supplying non-tradable goods and services. The study simulates the model for the economy to demonstrate existence of equilibrium points and motion of the dynamic system. It examines effects of changes in output elasticity of an industrial sector, population expansion, and propensities to consume the domestic commodity, to consume the other country’s commodity, to consume services, and to hold wealth.

A tired year

Author(s): Martin Vlachynský / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 0

There were number of unique economic events taking place in the EU during 2016. The“Panama papers” once again fueled the discussion over more harmonized tax policies within the EU. Apple was told to pay back to Ireland 13 billion euros of “unlawful state aid” – with the Irish government strongly opposing such a windfall revenue, choosing to defend its tax sovereignty instead. The ECB decided to phase out one of the world’s most worthy banknotes – the 500 euro note. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement with Canada – CETA – was signed in October, after 7 years of negotiations and a number of delays, while a similar deal with the US – the TTIP – barely inched forward. The European Commission imposed further anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products, responding to the repeated outcries of struggling European steelmakers.Yet the economic tone of the year was played by well-known instruments. The Euro zone financial system, deficits, quantitative easing, and, of course, the Greek crisis,will remain topics of the day for months to come.