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Ovo je gotovo trivijalno, ali se često odbacuje. Nije NATO samo, a po završetku hladnog rata zapravo ni prvenstveno, savez za odbranu od spoljašnjih neprijatelja. Da bi se to razumelo potrebno je poći od sledećeg zapažanja.
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The Black Sea region has become one of the key geopolitical spaces for the competition between Russia and the West on which the very future of Europe ultimately depends. The Kremlin wants to keep the Black Sea in its sphere of influence through a strategy of regional destabilisation based on a special military operation against Ukraine, the illegal annexation of new territories, historically considered to belong to Russia, and the strengthening of the military presence in these territories or the direct military threat to the states in the region in order to limit as much as possible the possibilities of their accession to the Euro-Atlantic structures. On the other hand, the West is trying to respond to Russia’s expansion with an advanced defence strategy in which the Black Sea occupies a central place. Thus, the Black Sea region, which has traditionally been treated as a less important area, acquires new strategic features becoming a much more militarised, unstable and contested region, a region that is in dire need of a new regional status quo in order to stabilise. Considering this state of facts, this article has as its main objective the geopolitical analysis of the Black Sea region, given that Russia has become the main destabilising factor in the region, as well as the identification of solutions to achieve regional stability based on the increasingly consistent involvement of the North Atlantic Alliance.
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Our paper examines the manner in which public opinion is affected by public communication in a very specific situation. The conflict in Ukraine has been on everyone’s mind for the last three months not only due to its unreasonableness but also due to the Ukrainians mastery of communicating to the public, be it national or international. As the conflict has grown stronger in its intensity so has the public communication on the Ukrainian side which took any given chance to address the international political scene through President Volodymyr Zelenski’s speeches in front of numerous Parliaments. While scrutinising the Ukrainian manner of communicating information and asking for humanitarian, financial and military aid, we will also inspect the manner in which the Russian side communicates. We will look into the effect that these addresses have had on the public opinion. The theoretical background of the paper includes the views on public opinion of GabrielTarde, Pierre Zémor’s definition of public communication as well as Jürgen Habermas’ communicative theory. These theories will assist us in our research to demonstrate which side communicates the better and which has the ability to use cultural references that support their message. Our paper studies an ongoing military conflict,i.e. the data that we have included so far could be interpreted differently later.
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In this article, we are placing an analysis of the current crisis that erupted at the Russian-Ukrainian border. The main purpose is to identify possible hidden causes that could influence evolution. For this purpose, we have developed a comparative analysis of the current situation, taking attention to the similarities with the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. Next, using the hypothetical-deductive analysis, we will highlight what could be the major objectives of the big actors involved and what could be the big dilemmas they are facing in decision-making. At the end of the paper, we will submit the conclusions by following the analyzes that we have proposed. The motivation for choosing this topic is to understand the future of the crisis and to focus on the crisis in the interests of the EU and NATO in general, and especially in Romania. The novelty of the research lies in comparing the evolution of the actual state of the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border, with the one of1962, when the tensions between NATO and the former Warsaw Treaty Organization reached their peak, as well as from the analysis based on the fundamental differences between the democratic regimes and the totalitarian ones, focused on identifying the objectives of great importance that each of the parties wants to achieve.
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In recent years there have been important changes in the approach to conflict, leading to a paradigm shift in the future warfare. Cyberspace has become a serious challenge for all states. Being easy to connect and cheap to operate, it has become a preferred battle space for many actors. It is used to disrupt networks, destroy and steal data, block or slow down critical infrastructure or spread false information. The development and innovation of military technologies and the professionalization of soldiers are not enough to fight in information warfare. Revising and improving old doctrines, and strategies is a clear form of supporting new techniques, tactics, and procedures of the Russian fight in cyberspace. The improvement of conventional tactics of warfare in conjunction with the introduction of new unconventional tactics of warfare has predictably led to the strengthening of internal, regional, and global security and resilience. The new vision of Russian warfare is that kinetic actions are supported by non-kinetic ones. As a result, Russia's cyber activity has recently intensified amid the invasion of Ukraine, putting the whole world on alert. Malicious activity in cyberspace is creating large-scale disruption in all areas. In this context, the activation of Article 5 for attacking a Member State in cyberspace is becoming increasingly discussed.
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Preparing for a hypothetical crisis situation is perhaps one of the biggest challenges for decision makers, regardless of the societal field. The situation of military conflict on the territory of Ukraine with loss of life and considerable material damage requires a rethinking of awareness of the situation in the management of military actions. Adopting proactive behaviour is the solution to identifying those possible solutions to various crisis situations. Integrated simulation systems applied in the management of military actions are the bridge for the development of solutions in a combined context of several societal areas, such as the protection of critical infrastructure. Integrated simulation systems make it possible to obtain partial results in the simulation of crisis situations, which determines the dynamic correction of military actions to achieve the objectives. The integration of the actions of the actors involved in a crisis situation, such as the one in Ukraine, allows us to obtain solutions for solving problems based on the formulated scenarios. Thus, based on a single scenario, it is possible to develop appropriate intervention reasoning for each aggression factor. The results of the repeated simulations are compared and a perspective can be obtained on the behaviour of each actor involved in the crisis situation according to the situational changes. At the end of the simulations, databases are obtained that can be used in the subsequent real situations.
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In 2019 the Terminology Working Group of the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence defined strategic communications as follows: strategic communications, n.: a holistic approach to communication based on values and interests that encompasses everything an actor does to achieve objectives in a contested environment. As of 2022, strategic communications is conceived as a normative project, and as such its theorists and practitioners recognise certain principles that underpin their activities: #1 StratCom affirms the right of the individual to choose between competing ideas or reject them. #2 StratCom affirms a need for transparency and the right of individuals to hold those who practise StratCom to be held to account. #3 StratCom affirms the right of the individual to free speech.
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After February 2022 the social media platform Telegram became ‘one of the most important informational vectors regarding the war’. The unprecedented spike in communications on the platform, which has been re-corded by ExTrac and discussed in the previous part, has given researchers a unique opportunity to examine Russia’s online media environment. While the ExTrac analysis focused on the quantitative increase of Telegram’s significance among Russian social media users, this part qualitatively analyses the content shared on the platform. It aims to shed light on the emergence of a new group of Russian online influencers—the so-called pro-war bloggers. Propelled into the limelight by a surge in online media, the Kremlin’s blocking of Western social media platforms, and increased demand from users for news about the war, these Telegram channels’ administrators formed an online eco-system which became instrumental in spreading pro-Russian narratives at home and abroad.
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The Russian war in Ukraine has revealed the fragilities of the global food system. For European countries, this is both a domestic and an international issue. At the domestic level, the shortage of grains from the Black Sea region has contributed to inflation. At the international level, it threatens the stability of several countries in the Southern neighborhood and offers an opportunity for Russia to strengthen its soft power. In a world more fragmented and impacted by the consequences of climate change, it is vital to develop a more resilient food system. In the shorter term, European countries should strengthen their ability to produce fertilizers, and pursue their efforts to allow the transit of Ukrainian grains to the Middle East and Africa. In the longer term, they should include the Global South in the transition toward a green economy.
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The resilience thinking in the Czech Republic and Norway has been significantly influenced by the membership of both countries in NATO; however, a closer inspection reveals some significant differences between them and opens a space for their mutual learning. Norway should pay attention to which aspects of national security resilience are strengthened by the membership in the EU as well as the longer debate on the resilience to disinformation in the Czech Republic. The Czech Republic could learn from the Norwegian thinking about the coordination of civil and military efforts in addressing security and military threats.
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Non-enlargement and delayed enlargement are active choices by the EU with concrete consequences. Maintaining the status quo is not an option. Enlargement processes are triggered by the application of a potential member state, and EU responses in the field encourage or discourage certain developments independently if we speak of the Western Balkans, Moldova, Georgia, or Ukraine. Progress with the enlargement agenda anchors countries into European structures and serves as a confirmation of their European choice. However, as examples from the Western Balkans show, there is a concrete risk that the EU might end up legitimising autocratic regimes in a bid for progress. The enlargement process must therefore not be decoupled from a clear meritocratic scrutiny. EU membership does not take place in a vacuum. As with previous enlargement rounds, the real security provider is NATO. The EU’s mutual defence clause is not a sufficient security guarantee. It is therefore difficult to conceive of a Ukrainian EU accession without NATO membership. After Ukraine’s accession, in particular the Ukraine army could be a substantial contribution to a European defence system. Other external developments might also contribute to the EU’s development of strategic autonomy. The nine accession countries would contribute with access to raw materials, including critical and strategic raw materials. For instance, Ukraine has a shared third in the world processing of the critical resource material scandium and has the second largest deposits of natural gas in Europe after Norway. The growing size of the EU’s market would enhance the so-called Brussels effect and increase the global relevance of the EU. The nine accession countries would increase the EU’s population from 447 to 513 million. The less developed economies of the countries, however, would be a challenge for the EU’s economic, social, and territorial cohesion. The time schedule for enlargement is crucial. Albeit it is never possible to guarantee a deadline year for enlargement, taking into account the conditionality-based process, setting a target year would be recommended to avoid overly optimistic assumptions in some candidate countries (e.g. Ukraine) as well as to clearly illuminate if EU member states are delaying the process.
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This reflection offers a concise analysis under national and international law of the cyber-operations carried out by Anonymous in the context of the ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine. It is highlighted that each one of the individuals acting as Anonymous is subject to the relevant national (cyber-criminal) law jurisdictions. Moreover, in the context of the war between Russia and Ukraine, they can be subject to the law of armed conflict. If their cyber-conduct amounts to “direct participation in hostilities”, they can even become targetable according to international humanitarian law. Also, when Anonymous directly participates in hostilities from a state that is not party to the armed conflict, the neutrality of non-belligerent countries can be challenged.
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Proces tvorby české zahraniční politiky v oblasti obrany a bezpečnosti byl v roce 2014 poznamenán především destabilizací východní Evropy v důsledku konfliktu na Ukrajině a bezprostřední reakcí a dalšími adaptivními opatřeními ze strany NATO, která spočívala zejména v (re)militarizaci střední a východní Evropy s cílem zvýšit alianční deterenční potenciál. Česká republika tento trend podporovala, v bezpečnostní komunitě se nicméně rozpoutala debata o českém příspěvku k novým adaptivním opatřením a schopnosti dostát aliančním závazkům. Zároveň pokračoval trend zvyšování české účasti v misích EU a OSN, byť armádní kapacity byly vázány i přislíbeným nasazením v NATO Response Force (NRF) a účastí na rostoucím počtu aliančních cvičení v regionu. Bezpečnost a obrana se staly bezprecedentním tématem politické a veřejné diskuse; tématem vysoce politizovaným a zároveň polarizačním v důsledku propojení s antisystémovým diskurzem části aktérů veřejné diskuse a s vysokou mírou pravděpodobnosti rovněž působením ruské informační operace.
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Českou zahraniční politiku ve vztahu k Rusku v roce 2014 přirozeně poznamenaly především události ve východní Evropě, jejichž významným účastníkem Rusko bylo. Tyto události byly přímým pokračováním dění na Ukrajině postupně gradujícího na podzim a v zimě 2013. A tak zatímco na počátku roku 2014 ještě čeští političtí představitelé ve vztahu k Putinově Rusku řešili na pozadí dramatizující se ukrajinské krize otázku, zda se účastnit olympijských her v Soči, minimálně od února 2014 bylo jasné, že budou muset ve vztahu k RF zaujímat postoje v daleko závažnějších otáz-kách a že vztahy Ruska a té části světa, jejíž součástí se ČR cítila již téměř 25 let být, se postupně dostanou do největší krize od dob skončení studené války. V české za-hraniční politice vůči Rusku se tak v průběhu roku 2014 postupně promítaly nejzávažnější události: na jaře to byla anexe Krymské autonomní republiky ze strany RF a dále postupný prudký nárůst napětí a násilí na východní a jihovýchodní Ukrajině a otázka ruského angažmá v celé situaci. Ačkoli do této události nebyla přímo zaan-gažována, dotkl se jí (podobně jako zbytku světa) i moment, kdy konflikt na Ukrajině vstoupil do povědomí veřejnosti řady států, i těch, které do situace nebyly zainteresovány prakticky vůbec: tragédie letu MH17.
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Česká zahraniční politika ve vztahu k Ruské federaci (RF) byla v roce 2015, stejně jako o rok předtím v roce 2014, nadále ovlivněna napjatou geopolitickou situací mezi Ruskou federací a západními státy a nevyřešeným konfliktem na Ukrajině. Po eskalaci bojů na počátku roku 2015 došlo 12. února v Minsku k uzavření nových dohod, které měly doplnit minský protokol ze září roku 2014. Tyto dohody představovaly plán, jenž měl ke konci roku 2015 vést k vyřešení ozbrojeného konfliktu na východě země. Nicméně ke konci roku 2015 byl pokrok minimální. Sankce uvalené na Rusko, jejichž osud je pevně spojen s plněním dohod, byly tak prodlouženy, což ovšem v České republice nevyvolávalo takové debaty, jak tomu bylo v předcházejícím roce.
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Politička saga koja traje već skoro godinu dana, posebno između vlasti i opozicije u entitetu Republika Srpska, u pogledu uvođenja ili neuvođenja sankcija Ruskoj Federaciji, poprima zaista začuđujuće razmjere. Kada tome pridodamo i stavove pojedinih ambasadora akreditovanih u Bosni i Hercegovini (BiH) ili zvaničnika iz Brisela, građani s pravom ostaju u nedoumici kojim argumentima da se priklone. Pomalo zbunjujuća je i nezainteresovanost političkih aktera u entitetu Federacija Bosne i Hercegovine, koji ovoj temi ne pridaju veliki značaj te samo u rijetkim izjavama pojedinaca još više doprinose konfuziji u odnosu na ovo izuzetno važno vanjskopolitičko pitanje integracije BiH u Evropsku uniju (EU). Najpozvanija institucija da pruži odgovor na prethodnu dilemu je svakako Ministarstvo vanjskih poslova BiH, ali iz nekog razloga ista se zaobilazi i odgovori se traţe na drugim stranama. Ili se, pak, nude interpretacije koje zadovoljavaju partikularne interese političkih partija i njihovih glasača. Nedavno je, čak, jedna politička stranka saopštila da je poslala upit u EU, kako bi potvrdu svojih stavova dobila direktno od mjerodavnih aktera iz Brisela.
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In the last decade, the exploration of Russian interests in the Western Balkans (WB), particularly in Serbia, has surged in scholarly circles, rivalling the longstanding issue of Kosovo's status. The eruption of war in Ukraine has thrust the question of Russian influence in Serbia into sharper focus, presenting Serbia with an existential dilemma in its foreign policy trajectory. Amidst a geopolitical landscape evoking echoes of a new Cold War, the urgency of Serbia's decision-making has intensified. On one hand, as a candidate for European Union (EU) membership, Serbia faces pressure to align with EU political interests. On the other hand, historical ties and ongoing cooperation with Russia present a complex dynamic that challenges the stated commitment to European integration. As a result, despite Western discontent, Serbia has steadfastly pursued its multi-vector foreign policy for the past two years. This approach involves maintaining active partnerships not only with the EU and the United States (US) but also with China and Russia. Notably, Serbia stands out as the sole European nation to have avoided the imposition of sanctions against Russia, sustaining robust business and political ties with Moscow amidst international tensions.
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On 1 January 2023, Sweden will assume the presidency of the Council of the European Union, as the last in the line of the current presidency trio. This will be Sweden’s first EU presidency since the Lisbon Treaty came into force and third overall. The Presidency takes place in time of severe turbulence caused by the prolonged war in Ukraine and economic turmoil characterised by record-high inflation and looming recession. Thus, there is no doubt that Sweden will continue the crisis management work of France and the Czech Republic. The presidency’s slogan ‘Greener, Safer and More Free Europe’ indicates that security and green transition will dominate the Presidency’s agenda. In addition, although the enlargement policy has been widened and now includes Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, it is unlikely that the Western Balkans will strongly feature on Sweden’s agenda. The aim of this insight is to examine how Sweden will manoeuvre through Europe in the midst of an increasingly complex context.
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Trwający od pięciu lat konflikt na wschodzie państwa ukraińskiego doprowadził do poważnego kryzysu gospodarczego i humanitarnego na Ukrainie, w tym na terytoriach tzw. Donieckiej Republiki Ludowej i Ługańskiej Republiki Ludowej (DRL i ŁRL). Trudną sytuację pogłębia trwająca od 2017 r. ukraińska blokada handlowa skutkująca społeczną, polityczną i gospodarczą izolacją niekontrolowanej przez Kijów części Donbasu. W efekcie na terytorium opanowanym przez prorosyjskich separatystów wykształcił się specyficzny model gospodarki centralnie sterowanej oparty na bezprawnie zawłaszczonym przemyśle i nielegalnych transakcjach handlowych przeprowadzanych przez przedsiębiorstwa nadzorowane przez Kreml. Istnienie i funkcjonowanie samozwańczych republik jest całkowicie zależne od wsparcia militarnego i finansowego ze strony Rosji, a stojący na czele tych parapaństw przywódcy są w pełni podporządkowani Moskwie. Pogłębiająca się z każdym rokiem izolacja terytoriów pozostających pod kontrolą separatystów od reszty kraju negatywnie wpływa na perspektywę ich reintegracji. Znaczącą rolę w tym procesie odgrywa konsekwentna polityka informacyjno-propagandowa i kulturalna, prowadzona przez Kreml i władze samozwańczych republik, mająca na celu wzmocnienie nastrojów prorosyjskich i utrwalenie wśród mieszkańcach wschodniej Ukrainy negatywnego obrazu państwa ukraińskiego. Sprzyja temu postawa władz w Kijowie, które pomimo deklarowanej determinacji do rozwiązania problemów humanitarnych oraz utrzymania powiązań społecznych i politycznych z resztą kraju nie podjęły rzeczywistych działań w tym zakresie. Widać natomiast bezczynność, która pogłębia proces wyobcowania mieszkańców wschodnich regionów od pozostałej części społeczeństwa ukraińskiego. W konsekwencji reintegracja Donbasu, po ewentualnym ponownym przejęciu kontroli nad okupowanymi terytoriami, może okazać się zadaniem niezwykle trudnym do zrealizowania.
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In times of multiple security crises and increased threats to women’s rights across the world, the need for a commitment to an active implementation of the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) Agenda is ever more pressing. The Czech Republic’s upcoming third National Action Plan on WPS represents an opportunity to further advance WPS into domestic and foreign policies and practices while reflecting on the shifting geopolitical circumstances at local, regional and global levels. Although the Czech WPS Agenda is now well institutionalized, it needs first and foremost a higher political priority which would be linked to budget allocation, and more localization, as well as a transformative and in-depth engagement in its implementation, monitoring and evaluation. Each of the four pillars of the NAP – participation, gender mainstreaming, prevention and protection, and relief and recovery – should mainstream crosscutting issues of intersectionality, localization, leadership, budget allocation and qualitative monitoring and evaluation. These are much needed steps along with the renewing of the position of a Special Commissioner for Gender, which could support the Czech regional WPS leadership and effective responses to the gendered impacts of Russia’s war in Ukraine, including through the lens of long-term conflict prevention.
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