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  • Russian Aggression against Ukraine

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Italy Reworks Energy Policy after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
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Italy Reworks Energy Policy after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine forced the Italian authorities to quickly seek alternative gas supplies and sparked a debate about the risks of dependence on foreign commodities. Despite favourable natural conditions, both the development of renewable energy sources (RES) and domestic gas production are hampered by bureaucratic obstacles and opposition in local communities. Continued dependence on energy imports will eventually push Italy to normalise relations with Russia.

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Congress Key to U.S. Support for Ukraine One Year After the Russian Invasion
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Congress Key to U.S. Support for Ukraine One Year After the Russian Invasion

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The Republicans’ majority in the House of Representatives may slow down or reduce American support for Ukraine. The problem is not only the opposition of some Republicans to the assistance itself but above all, the attempts to reduce budget expenditures and reduce the deficit. This may prompt the Biden administration to use the approved funds sparingly and provide only the most necessary elements of support for fear that Congress will not allocate additional funds before the next fiscal year.

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Russia Suspends the New START Treaty
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Russia Suspends the New START Treaty

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Russia’s groundless suspension of the Russia-U.S. Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) is yet another attempt to intimidate the West with nuclear weapons. By threatening an arms race, Russia seeks to force concessions regarding Ukraine. It is unable, however, to gain meaningful strategic advantage over the U.S. in such a race. It would entail costs for both sides, but they would be more severe for Russia, which is much weaker economically and further weakened by war and sanctions.

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Refugees from Ukraine Adapting to the European Labour Market
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Refugees from Ukraine Adapting to the European Labour Market

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Due to the length of the war in Ukraine, more and more refugees from this country have decided to take up employment in the EU. Preliminary data indicate that they are integrating into European labour markets faster than refugees from other regions. However, the mismatch between their jobs and qualifications remains a challenge. Despite the refugees’ inclusion, the deteriorating economic situation in Europe may lead to negative perceptions in host countries.

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Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports Require Further Refining
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Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports Require Further Refining

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Western and other states’ restriction of imports of Russian oil and sanctions on its oil trade had little impact on Russia’s budget revenues in 2022. This was because Russia found new customers for its crude, mainly in Asia. The effects of the restrictions only started to become apparent from the beginning of this year, but without a further, significant reduction in this source of income, Russia’s ability to fund its aggression against Ukraine will not be weakened. The best way to increase the effectiveness of the sanctions would be to further reduce the price ceiling on Russian oil and take steps to increase the oil supply on the global market from alternative sources.

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Ukraine’s Reconstruction Already on the Agenda
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Ukraine’s Reconstruction Already on the Agenda

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine still ongoing, the international community is already preparing for the country’s reconstruction from the destruction of war. Earlier this year, the G7 countries established a platform to coordinate the future recovery of Ukraine. Still missing, nonetheless, is a decision regarding funding. Key to any successful reconstruction will be to provide post-war Ukraine with viable security guarantees, upon which the involvement of private investors will ultimately depend.

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Hungary Maintains Course on Russia One Year after the Invasion of Ukraine
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Hungary Maintains Course on Russia One Year after the Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

The Hungarian government, although in principle not blocking Allied support for Ukraine, represents a position favouring Russia. This is contrary to the strategic interests of NATO and EU partners, including Poland, and results in a growing loss of credibility of the Hungarian government in these organisations. Therefore, Hungary’s attitude will degrade its position, regardless of the resolution of the war in Ukraine. It may also hinder joint action within NATO and the EU, given their limited influence on the Hungarian government’s decisions.

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Strengthening State Security a Challenge for the Pro-European Moldovan Government
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Strengthening State Security a Challenge for the Pro-European Moldovan Government

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

On 30 March, the Moldovan parliament began work on a package of bills reforming the Security and Intelligence Service. This is an element of the pro-European government’s response to Russia’s destabilisation of the country. In February, President Maia Sandu accused Russia of attempting an armed coup in Chişinău. However, the imminent threat of this is contradicted by the appointment of new prime minister Dorin Recean, the former interior minister, in mainly an image-related move. It is in the interest of Poland to strengthen the stability of Moldova a sit will contribute to the security of the Eastern Flank of the EU and NATO, as well as guard Ukraine from the rear.

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How the War in Ukraine Impacts NATO Policy in the Black Sea Region
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How the War in Ukraine Impacts NATO Policy in the Black Sea Region

Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has increased the strategic importance of the Black Sea region for the security of NATO’s Eastern Flank. The activity of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, energy blackmail, and blocking of sea lines of communication pose a threat to the Alliance and its partner states (Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia). Although NATO’s ability to operate in the Black Sea is limited by the Montreux Convention, the Alliance can enhance deterrence credibility by increasing its military presence in the region and expanding cooperation with partners.

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Ukrainian society rallies against the aggressor
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Ukrainian society rallies against the aggressor

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, Ukrainian society, as well as the military, central and local authorities, have demonstrated courage and determination in standing up to the aggressor, and displayed the ability to take effective action in extremely difficult conditions. Despite Russia’s military advantage, the brutality of its army and the enormous scale of destruction and casualties suffered by the Ukrainian people, the prevailing attitudes are rage against the invader and pride in their country, people and army. A large stream of refugees, primarily women and children, has poured out of Ukraine, but those who have remained in the country are putting up stiff resistance, even in cities that have already been occupied by the enemy. ‘Grassroots work’ is also progressing steadily with various forms of self-organisation and solidarity, together with support for the army and internally displaced persons. These attitudes – contrary to Moscow’s expectations – are also being adopted by the residents and authorities of the eastern Ukrainian regions most affected by the war, most of whom are Russian speakers. Throughout the country, a fellowship of hatred is forming rapidly – not only towards the Russian state, the Russian authorities and the invading army, but also towards almost everything Russian, thus crystallizing the myth of a reborn Ukraine as an ‘anti-Russia’. Such attitudes do not bode well for plans to occupy the country by Russian troops. Even if some territories are seized and puppet administrations are installed, Russia will have to face a strong resistance movement, which will sharply increase the costs of such a project.

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The economic consequences of the war: a profound crisis looming for Russia
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The economic consequences of the war: a profound crisis looming for Russia

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

In retaliation for its military aggression against Ukraine Russia has been sanctioned by around 50 countries, which accounted for half of Russia’s foreign trade and were of key importance to the stability of its capital market. The sanctions have hit the foundations of the Russian economy, principally targeting the financial market. The measures have affected every single sector of the economy, and the negative consequences of most of these measures have been immediate. Undoubtedly, this came as a major surprise to the Kremlin, especially as the scale of the sanctions considerably exceeded the scale of possible restrictions hinted at ahead of the invasion. It can be expected that as long as Russia continues to attack Ukraine, further restrictions will be imposed on it, including on its raw material sector.

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The war in Ukraine: consequences for the Bundeswehr and Germany’s policy in NATO
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The war in Ukraine: consequences for the Bundeswehr and Germany’s policy in NATO

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has undermined the principle of German policy based on the notion that “the security of Europe can only be built with Russia, not against it”. Most German elites have come to understand that Putin’s Russia is not only a challenge but also a threat to NATO, and that investments in national defence and bolstering collective defence are therefore necessary. However, when it comes to supporting Ukraine and raising the costs of the current war for Russia, the German government continues to factor into its calculations its own dependence on Russian oil and gas and the resistance of some in the SPD to supplying Kyiv with weapons. Berlin still fails to see that the Kremlin’s defeat in this war is necessary to ensure long-term security in Europe.

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Russians Against the War: Under the White-Blue-White Flag
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Russians Against the War: Under the White-Blue-White Flag

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Russians opposing the war in Ukraine use the white-blue-white flag (WBW) to identify themselves. It is used by a variety of circles, from democratic to radical, including groups admitting to guerrilla warfare in Russia and Russians fighting in Ukraine against Russian troops. Protesters against the invasion of Ukraine are a minority in Russian society. They can openly voice their views only outside the Russian Federation, so their actions do not translate into a change in Russian policy.

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Ukrainians Plan for Post-War Reconstruction
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Ukrainians Plan for Post-War Reconstruction

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

Despite the ongoing military operations, Ukraine is already preparing for reconstruction. The concept it presented in Lugano, Switzerland, in July this year envisages not only the rebuilding of damaged facilities but also a comprehensive transformation of the state and economy. So far, it has not been possible to secure sufficient funding, and it also will be a challenge to coordinate such a wide-ranging undertaking. Early planning of reconstruction activities increases the chances of its success and boosts Ukrainian morale. It also allows Ukraine's partners, including Poland, to be better prepared to take part in the reconstruction.

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Rosyjska demonstracja siły na granicy z Ukrainą i na okupowanym Krymie
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Rosyjska demonstracja siły na granicy z Ukrainą i na okupowanym Krymie

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): Polish

Organizując w kwietniu br. ćwiczenia wojskowe i sygnalizując gotowość zaatakowania Ukrainy, Rosja chciała wymusić na niej powrót do rozmów w ramach procesu normandzkiego, a jednocześnie sprawdzić reakcję państw zachodnich, zwłaszcza USA. W wymiarze militarnym był to ważny element testu stanu gotowości bojowej rosyjskich sił zbrojnych na zachodnim kierunku strategicznym, czego kolejną odsłoną będą wrześniowe ćwiczenia „Zachód”. Mimo wycofania większości rosyjskich jednostek do miejsc stałej dyslokacji w regionie utrzyma się napięta sytuacja.

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Estimating the Potential of China's Military Assistance to Russia
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Estimating the Potential of China's Military Assistance to Russia

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

China’s military assistance to Russia would fill the majority of the latter’s needs and help it to regain the initiative in the war with Ukraine. Chinese support so far is based mainly on dual-use materials and items, but bilateral and multi-dimensional military cooperation between Russia and China will likely deepen. Ukraine’s partners might still influence and limit these areas of cooperation, which directly contribute to the continuation of war by Russia.

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№124: The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Political Stability of Russia
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№124: The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Political Stability of Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Agnieszka Legucka,Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Although the Russian army has suffered a series of defeats in Ukraine, the Putin regime does not feel defeated and its stability is not threatened. The ability to control the internal situation allows the Russian authorities to wage war with Ukraine for years to come in order to achieve the assumed strategic goals of subordinating Ukraine and enforcing a buffer zone on the territory of some NATO countries. This requires Western countries to take a long-term approach to deterring the Russian threat and supporting Ukraine’s ability to regain control over lost territory.

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№126: Tandem Faces an Uncertain Future: Franco-German Relations in a Time of War and Inflation
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№126: Tandem Faces an Uncertain Future: Franco-German Relations in a Time of War and Inflation

Author(s): Łukasz Jasiński,Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

The COVID-19 pandemic and the crises caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine represent the most serious test for the Franco-German tandem since the creation of the EU. Leaders in both countries share a conviction of the necessity of mutual cooperation, further increased by the compromise worked out around the EU’s post-pandemic recovery plan. However, the catalogue of divergences between France and Germany is long and includes crucial issues such as the shape of the common market, energy policy, and defence. A possible permanent loosening of the tandem may benefit Poland, but only on the condition that the country maintains constructive relations with France and Germany, cooperates well with EU institutions, and correctly diagnoses Polish interests in the areas of the Franco-German dispute.

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№114: Consequences of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine for the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act
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№114: Consequences of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine for the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Artur Kacprzyk,Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Russia’s revisionist policy, which culminated in the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, tore down the foundations of the Euro-Atlantic security system based on the international law and principles listed in the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. Despite Russia’s repeated violations of its commitments, NATO has been unilaterally honouring the Act, including by not stationing permanent substantial combat forces in the eastern part of the Alliance. However, given the current security situation, NATO should declare that it does not feel bound by the self-imposed military limitations of the Act. Honouring them is of no benefit in relations with Russia, impedes a response to the Russian threat, and creates unnecessary risk.

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№133: Options for Securing Free Trade Navigation in the Black Sea
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№133: Options for Securing Free Trade Navigation in the Black Sea

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal poses again the risk of destabilising the global food market. However, it is a reflection of a much larger problem represented by the Russian year-and-a-half-long blockade of the Black Sea, which has allowed it to gradually weaken Ukraine and drive up the cost of providing it with assistance from foreign partners. The international community should not pursue reactivation of the grain deal, which granted Russia de facto control of Ukrainian exports, and instead, the common objective should be to finally break the Russian blockade and effectively secure maritime trade across the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports.

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