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№22: Not As Smart As It Could Be: the NATO Smart Defence Initiative—Chicago and Beyond

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Prompted by austerity-driven cuts in defence budgets and calls by the U.S. to distribute the burden for common defence more evenly across the Atlantic, for the last 15 months NATO members have been developing the Smart Defence Initiative. Launched by Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen in February 2011, the initiative aims to “pool and share capabilities, to set the right priorities, and to better coordinate our efforts”. In other words, it is about seeking opportunities for more intense and cost-effective defence cooperation amongst the Allies. The NATO summit in Chicago delivered the first results as a multitude of cooperative projects was endorsed by the Allies in the so-called “Chicago Defence Package”. It involves the exchange of experiences and lessons learnt, joint education and training of forces, the bundling of military assets such as airplanes, as well as joint NATO-wide investment programmes to develop state-of-the-art defence systems.

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№18: Shades of Grey: Poland’s Example for a Middle East in Transition

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

It is not at all clear if or how a country’s experience in systemic transition—from authoritarian to democratic rule—can serve as a lesson to another country in transition. Positivists would claim the 20th century provides a plethora of examples about how to conduct a transition. Sceptics would point at differences in each and every case: in the character and condition of the economy, a lack of adequate political structures or different cultural and historic backgrounds. Tunisia and Egypt, however, are at this extremely precarious point where they will understandably want to make decisions on their own but will be at the same time looking carefully at the experience and competence of others because the democratization process inevitably requires many practical solutions.

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№3: Eastern Partnership - Strengthened ENP Cooperation with Willing Neighbours

Author(s): Leszek Jesień / Language(s): English

At the end of May 2008 Poland and Sweden together presented a joint proposal for “Eastern Partnership” between the EU and its neighbours. The intention of this PISM Strategic File is to elaborate further on the possible options presented by the proposal’s implementation and development, provided it receives a positive response from the other EU Member States and is approved by the European Commission. In their Eastern Partnership proposal, Poland and Sweden suggest that the existing instruments for cooperation between the European Union and its eastern neighbours be complemented by an intensified support by the EU. This support would be directed toward those EU neighbours who have advanced furthest in implementing European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) instruments. The proposal would include a more effective use of ENP instruments, taking especially into account the needs and aspirations of those neighbours that meet the criteria for obtaining this type of assistance. The EU countries’ use of national instruments and of support within the ENP framework would constitute a specific program of action that would truly integrate the most advanced Eastern countries into the EU common market – a fundamental promise of the ENP.

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№20: Poland and Spain: Partnership for a Stronger Europe

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek,Richard Youngs,Cristina Manzano,Beata Wojna / Language(s): English

The European Union of today is being significantly challenged by the ongoing economic crisis and doubts about the future of the European project. In this moment of trial, the main response of the European countries should be to create a more united and stronger Europe. Therefore, the EU needs genuine advocates of both further integration and greater solidarity amongst EU members. Poland and Spain are perfectly suited to their roles as the most vocal defenders of a strong EU. They share the experience of democratic transitions intrinsically linked to their engagement in European integration and are the clearest examples of the benefits that come with EU membership. Their status as two of the six largest EU Member States gives them a valuable position to influence the debate on the future of the EU as well as introduce proposals for treaty changes.

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Viktor Orbán’s Fourth Government at the Halfway Point

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

The opposition’s good results in the 2019 local elections did not weaken the government of Viktor Orbán. On the European stage, the extended suspension of the ruling party Fidesz’s membership in the European People’s Party (EPP) allowed it to avoid an escalation of its dispute with the EPP. Due to the foreseen economic slowdown, the government will focus in the remaining two years until the election on the permanent mobilisation of its electorate. In its European policy, it is preparing for both a split with the EPP and remaining in the EU mainstream. Similar views of Hungary and France on the EU’s future relations with Russia and the U.S. facilitate the fulfilment of the second scenario.

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Czwarty rząd Viktora Orbána na półmetku

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): Polish

Dobry wynik opozycji w wyborach samorządowych w 2019 r. nie osłabił rządu Viktora Orbána. Na scenie europejskiej przedłużenie zawieszenia w prawach członka w Europejskiej Partii Ludowej (EPL) pozwoliło Fideszowi uniknąć eskalacji sporu z tą partią. W związku z prognozą spowolnienia gospodarczego w dwóch latach pozostałych do wyborów rząd skupi się na ciągłej mobilizacji swojego elektoratu. W polityce europejskiej przygotowuje się zarówno na zerwanie z EPL, jak i na pozostanie w mainstreamie UE. Zbieżności w spojrzeniu Węgier i Francji m.in. na przyszłość stosunków UE z Rosją czy USA ułatwiają realizację drugiego scenariusza.

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France and the Russian Presence in Africa

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

In 2019, French President Emmanuel Macron initiated a Franco-Russian dialogue aimed at improving bilateral relations, as well as EU-Russia relations. This effort could be confounded by the growing Russian engagement in Africa, mainly through their military, business, and propaganda activities. These are increasingly harmful to France, which traditionally engages in the politics and economies of African states. The French government hasn’t yet prepared any coherent strategy vis-à-vis the Russian challenge, preferring to wait it out.

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Francja wobec aktywności Rosji w Afryce

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): Polish

Prezydent Francji Emmanuel Macron zainicjował w 2019 r. dialog francusko-rosyjski, którego celem jest poprawa stosunków dwustronnych i Rosji z UE. Może to utrudnić zwiększająca się od kilku lat obecność Rosji w Afryce, zwłaszcza działania wojskowe, biznesowe i propagandowe. Coraz bardziej uderzają one w interesy Francji, która tradycyjnie angażuje się w politykę i rozwój gospodarczy państw afrykańskich. Rząd francuski nie wypracował na razie spójnej reakcji na rosyjskie wyzwanie, choć skłania się raczej ku przeczekaniu niż ku konfrontacji.

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Reorientation of Romania’s Moldova Policy

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

In January, Romania’s authorities announced they will suspend assistance for Moldova and distancing themselves from its leaders. The reason was the takeover of rule in Moldova by the pro-Russia Party of Socialists led by President Igor Dodon. That negated the fundamental assumption of Romanian policy towards Moldova—that Moldovans are part of the Romanian nation. Guided by that assumption, the Romanian authorities had for a long time within the European Union uncritically supported Moldovan governments, which, while making pro-Romania gestures, were compromising the idea of European integration. Romania’s current distancing from the Moldovan authorities may make it easier for the EU to settle the reforms included in the Association Agreement.

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Reorientacja rumuńskiej polityki wobec Mołdawii

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): Polish

W styczniu br. Rumunia ogłosiła wstrzymanie pomocy dla Mołdawii i odcięła się od jej władz. Powodem było przejęcie rządów w tym kraju przez prorosyjską Partię Socjalistów prezydenta Igora Dodona. Negują oni przynależność Mołdawian do narodu rumuńskiego – fundamentalne założenie polityki Rumunii wobec Mołdawii. Kierując się nim, władze rumuńskie przez lata bezkrytycznie wspierały na forum UE mołdawskie rządy, które wprawdzie czyniły gesty prorumuńskie, ale kompromitowały ideę europejską. Dlatego zdystansowanie się Rumunii wobec mołdawskich władz może ułatwić Unii rozliczanie ich z reform przewidzianych w umowie stowarzyszeniowej.

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Greece’s Eastern Mediterranean Policy

Author(s): Maciej Pawłowski / Language(s): English

Greece aims to strengthen its political and economic position in the Eastern Mediterranean, which was weakened after the economic crisis of 2008–2013. Among the ways to regain this stature are through access to natural resources and participation in regional alliances. The Greeks perceive Turkey as the main threat to achieving these goals. It is in the EU’s interest to foster better relations between the two countries and to find compromise in disputes between them.

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Prospects for Changes in China-Taiwan Relations

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

The second consecutive victory in presidential and parliamentary elections in Taiwan of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which opposes the PRC, is a challenge for mainland China and its relations with the island. As the prospects of reunification are fading, the PRC may be forced to offer Taiwan a new formula for dialogue. The Taiwanese authorities will increasingly emphasize the island’s separateness from the mainland, as well as its well-functioning democracy. Taiwan is counting on the support of other countries, taking advantage of their growing concerns about China.

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Perspektywy zmian w stosunkach chińsko-tajwańskich

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): Polish

Drugie z rzędu zwycięstwo w wyborach prezydenckich i parlamentarnych rządzącej Tajwanem Demokratycznej Partii Postępowej (DPP), nieprzychylnej ChRL, stanowi wyzwanie dla Chin i ich stosunków z wyspą. Ponieważ oddala się perspektywa zjednoczenia, ChRL może być zmuszona zaproponować Tajwanowi nową formułę dialogu. Tajwańskie władze będą coraz wyraźniej podkreślać odrębność wyspy, w tym dobrze funkcjonujący tam ustrój demokratyczny. Liczą na wsparcie innych państw, wykorzystując ich narastającą obawę przed działaniami Chin.

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Slovak Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Elections in Slovakia to the National Council, scheduled for 29 February, will likely confirm the continued falling support for the centre-left Smer-Social Democracy (Smer). It is uncertain whether the party will join the next ruling coalition even if it maintains the largest number of seats. The government can be created by a coalition of right-wing and liberal parties. Regardless of its composition, the new government will not change the current directions of foreign policy—further integration in the EU and cooperation within NATO. At the same time, it will need to take strategic decisions on expanding the 5G network, redefining relations with Russia, and regional cooperation.

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Wybory parlamentarne na Słowacji

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): Polish

Zaplanowane na 29 lutego br. wybory do Rady Narodowej potwierdzą negatywny trend spadku poparcia dla centrolewicowej partii Smer – Socjalna Demokracja. Nie jest pewne, czy wejdzie ona do nowej koalicji rządzącej, nawet jeśli utrzyma największą liczbę mandatów. Może ją stworzyć porozumienie partii prawicowych i liberalnych. Bez względu na skład nowy rząd nie zmieni dotychczasowych kierunków polityki zagranicznej – dalszej integracji w UE i współpracy w ramach NATO. Równocześnie stanie przed strategicznymi decyzjami o rozbudowie sieci 5G, redefinicji relacji z Rosją i współpracy regionalnej.

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The Political Significance of the Trump Israeli-Palestinian Peace Plan

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

The plan announced by U.S. President Donald Trump will not break the deadlock in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. For all involved parties, the plan will remain a point of reference for political and diplomatic actions in the coming months. The key factors of future developments would be Israel’s decision on the possible annexation of parts of the West Bank and, in the long-run, the outcome of this fall’s U.S. presidential elections.

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Plan pokojowy Trumpa – znaczenie polityczne

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): Polish

Plan ogłoszony przez prezydenta Donalda Trumpa nie przełamie impasu w izraelsko-palestyńskim procesie pokojowym. Dla zaangażowanych stron i społeczności międzynarodowej będzie w najbliższych miesiącach punktem odniesienia w działaniach politycznych i dyplomatycznych. Dla rozwoju sytuacji kluczowa będzie decyzja Izraela co do aneksji części Zachodniego Brzegu, a w dłuższej perspektywie – rezultat wyborów prezydenckich w USA.

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Migration Trends in Morocco: Implication for the European Union

Author(s): Katarzyna Michalska / Language(s): English

The increase in irregular migration from Sub-Saharan Africa and the Sahel has resulted in the transformation of Morocco from an emigration-only country into a transit and immigration one. EU support for Morocco focuses on the protection of the country’s borders, controlling the migration flow to Europe, and the implementation of readmission agreements. The EU also provides financial and technological support and helps to reform immigration policy. Due to the unstable humanitarian situation and growing number of refugees in Morocco, this cooperation should also include the Sahel region.

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Trendy migracyjne w Maroku – implikacje dla Unii Europejskiej

Author(s): Katarzyna Michalska / Language(s): Polish

Wskutek rosnącej migracji nieregularnej z Afryki Subsaharyjskiej i Sahelu Maroko zmienia się z państwa emigracyjnego w tranzytowe i imigracyjne. Wsparcie UE dla Maroka koncentruje się na ochronie jego granic, ograniczeniu napływu migracji do Europy i realizacji zawartej m.in. z Hiszpanią umowy o readmisji. UE udziela także wsparcia finansowego i technologicznego oraz pomaga w reformie polityki imigracyjnej. W związku z niestabilną sytuacją humanitarną i rosnącą liczbą uchodźców w Maroku współpraca ta powinna objąć też Sahel.

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Further Lack of Progress in Settling the Situation in Donbas

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Despite the resumption of negotiations at the highest level of the Normandy Format (Ukraine, Russia, Germany, France) in Paris last December, the deadlock regarding the situation in Donbas was not broken. None of the main provisions of the Paris summit has been implemented so far. The likely lack of agreement at the next Normandy meeting, initially scheduled for the beginning of the second quarter of this year, may prompt Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to intensify bilateral talks with Russia.

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