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Hrvatski na uvjetnoj slobodi

Author(s): Ivo Žanić / Language(s): Croatian

Nakon višegodišnje duboke političke krize u Hrvatskoj su se 1906. Održali slobodni izbori na kojima je pobijedila Hrvatsko-srpska koalicija Frana Supila, te u svibnju izabrala 40 izaslanika za zasjedanje zajedničkoga, Hrvatsko-ugarskog sabora u Budimpešti. Ali, nade se u sporazum s također novom ugarskom vlašću ipak ne ostvaruju, rasprave u Budimpešti sve su mučnije, te 3. srpnja 1907. završavaju demonstrativnim odlaskom hrvatskih zastupnika. Na početku te zadnje sjednice, dok je govorio izaslanik Hrvatskog sabora, neki su zastupnici Mađari nešto došapnuli predsjedniku ugarske vlade i ministru financija Sandoru Wekerleu, a on smjesta to prenio predsjedatelju Istvanu Rakovszkom.

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Balkan - teror kulture

Author(s): Ivan Čolović / Language(s): Serbian

Ivan Čolović is an ethnologist, an essayist, and the founder of The 20th Century Library (1971). He has published thirteen books and numerous articles on issues and problems of literature, urban ethnology, ethno-linguistics, and political anthropology. In the thirteen essays of which tis book consists the author speaks of culure as a detonator of hatred and wars in the Balkans. ”I had seen it at work over the years of crisis and war in former Yugoslavia, then I saw it come out of that cisis and those wars more or less intact and ready, to serve – if need be – the same purpose – that of detonating. This prompted me to pay particular attention to the post-war ”patriotic” discourse about culture in Serbia and other Balkan countries in order to determine in which manner, thanks to these retorical strategies, it manages to preserve its explosive potential. Thus, I became interested in myths of the so called ”national spiritual and cultural space” or those of ostensible organic oneness between the Balkan nations and the soil on which they live, and to which they lay exclusive claim. My attention was focused on cults of the national tongue, of poets and their tombs and monuments, of the epic tradition and its main symbol ”the gusle”.(From the Foreword).

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Tehnološke i demokratske inovacije - komplementarni ili suprotni procesi

Author(s): Ivana Damnjanović / Language(s): Serbian Publication Year: 0

Research of innovation was famously introduced into economic theory by Schumpeter, at the beginning of 20th century. In his view, innovation was the main driving force of economic growth. Today, the research of innovation and its various aspects is the subject of many disciplines – economic theory, management, science, technology and society studies – and the focus is mostly on techn ological and rarely on organizational innovations. Recently, the research of innovation took hold in political science as well, through the concept of democratic innovation – „institutions that have been specifically designed to increase and deepen citizen participation in the political decision-making process“. Too often, researchers in the field of social science, including political science, begin from the explicit or implicit assumption of technological determinism – a notion that technological change decisively influences social change. More optimistic authors have frequently (and mostly unjustly) glorified every new technology as a bearer of new, democratizing changes. The idea of mutual formation of technological and social processes, including innovations, would, it seems, provide a more appropriate theoretical framework for research of the relationship between technological innovations and democratic processes. This paper aims to, starting from these assumptions, explore the relationship between technological and democratic innovation, and determine whether technological innovations in the modern world contribute to finding new methods and channels for citizen’s participation, thus improving the quality of democracy, or they lead to new forms of exclusion and inequality, decreasing in that way the democratic potential of societies.

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Who is a normative foreign policy actor? The European Union and its Global Partners

Author(s): Michael Emerson,Natalie Tocci,Daniel S. Hamilton,Radha Kumar,Andrey S. Makarychev,Brantly Womack,Hakim Darbouche ,Sandra Fernandes,Ruth Hanau-Santini,Ian Manners,Gergana Noutcheva,Clara Portela / Language(s): English

This publication investigates “Who is a normative foreign policy actor?” It forms part of a new project intended to explore fundamental aspects of foreign policy at the global level, against the backdrop of a proliferation of global actors in the 21st century, following half a century with only one undisputed global hegemon: the United States. The European Union is itself a new or emerging foreign policy actor, driven by self-declared normative principles. But Russia, China and India are also increasingly assertive actors on the global stage and similarly claim to be driven by a normative agenda. The fundamental question explored is how will these various global actors define their foreign policy priorities, and how they will interact, especially if their ideas of normative behaviour differ?

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China’s junior partner. Russia’s Korean policy

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

Russia’s long-term goal is to prevent the reunification of the Korean peninsula under the aegis of the United States and to weaken the US ’s position in the region. Its short-term goal is to avert the danger of an outbreak of armed conflict on the peninsula and the possible collapse of North Korea. Russia’s support for the reunification of the two Korean states is purely declaratory; in practice the Kremlin is striving to maintain the political status quo on the peninsula. At the same time, Russia wants to maximise its influence by developing economic relations and maintaining political contacts with both Koreas. Moscow does not view the denuclearisation of North Korea as one of its priorities. Its approach to Pyongyang’s nuclear programme is instrumental; in Moscow’s eyes, although the program poses certain risks for Russia, it also opens a number of opportunities. The course of the crisis so far has demonstrated that Russia does not have sufficient tools to influence the course of events. As a consequence, it has had to accept a role as China’s ‘junior partner’ in the Korean issue.

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ARCTIC NARRATIVES AND POLITICAL VALUES: ARCTIC STATES, CHINA AND NATO

Author(s): Iona Mackenzie Allan / Language(s): English

The following research is based on discourse analysis of official statements, speeches and policy documents published by the governments of the eight Arctic states as well as China and the NATO alliance between January 2012 and June 2019. This document provides a brief summary of the key narratives promoted by each of these 10 Arctic actors, drawing particular attention towards how they frame their identity in the Arctic (self), how they conceptualise the region (region) and how they frame relations with other Arctic stakeholders (others). The narratives identified in the discourse were coded according to the different national power dimensions and political values that they communicate. This summary is intended to give an over-view of the narrative landscape of the Arctic as indication of key national interests and areas of strategic priorities for each of these 10 Arctic actors.

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Zadržavanje mladih u Kantonu Sarajevo: analiza determinanti i prijedlog strateških mjera

Author(s): Muris Čičić,Melika Husić-Mehmedović,Maja Arslanagić-Kalajdžić,Lejla Turulja,Selma Kadić-Maglajlić,Alina Trkulja,Amra Avdagić / Language(s): Bosnian,Croatian,Serbian

Mladi predstavljaju temelj razvoja svakog društva. Međutim, današnja generacija suočava se s višestrukim izazovima. Prema Evropskoj uniji (2018), postoji realan rizik da današnja generacija „mladih“ neće imati mogućnosti i prilike poput svojih roditelja i sve se više suočavaju s nesigurnom budućnošću. Sve to je rezultat tehnoloških promjena, demografskih trendova, diskriminacije, socijalne isključenosti, lažnih vijesti i populizma, a efekti ovih trendova na radna mjesta, vještine ili način na koji funkcionira demokratija još su nedovoljno istraženi. Nezaposlenost mladih je u porastu širom Evrope, posebno u manje razvijenim zemljama. Nivo nezaposlenosti danas treba promatrati u kontekstu: i) povećane fleksibilnosti tržišta rada koja mladima otežava osiguranje stabilnog zaposlenja, ii) širenja visokog obrazovanja, koje je slabo usklađeno s promjenjivom strukturom vještina koje zahtijevaju poslodavci, iii) migracijom mladih, koja je obimnija, selektivnija i raznolika, kao i iv) nasljeđima porodične radne povijesti koji stvaraju nove oblike polarizacije za mlađe generacije (O’Reilly et al., 2015). Istovremeno, mladi su jedna od najdinamičnijih društvenih grupa koja pokazuje veću sklonost promjeni prebivališta, poslova i odnosa u poređenju s drugim dobnim skupinama. Odluke o migraciji uglavnom su povezane s godinama, i to na način da se vjerovatnost migracije smanjuje kako ljudi stare (Van Dalen & Henkens, 2013). Kao posljedica toga, migracije mladih su danas u porastu, i to posebno u zemljama u razvoju, gdje migracije predstavljaju strategiju za unapređenje životnih šansi i izbora (Heckert, 2015).

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Russian Civilian Outreach and Information Operations in Syria

Author(s): Jan Daniel,Dominik Presl / Language(s): English

The large-scale Russian military intervention in Syria entered its seventh year in 2021. Major military operations seem to be halted for now and the Syrian government, together with its allies, has been able to reconquer significant portions of the country’s territory. Nevertheless, the Syrian territory continues to be fragmented and the Syrian government faces a wide range of challenges, from the collapsing economy to simmering local opposition in certain regions. Russian involvement in the conflict, and in the country more broadly, is far from over and it is still requested by the Syrian regime. Even though Russia might be involved in various power-struggles inside the Syrian governmental apparatus and economic structures and there are several important differences between Russian and Syrian visions of the future political development, the dependence of the Syrian government on Russian support means that its presence in the country is, thus far, secured.

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ZAPAD 2021 Communication analysis: messages, narratives, (dis)information

Author(s): Valeriy Akimenko,Daivis Petraitis,Viktoras Daukšas,Balys Liubinavičius / Language(s): English

On 10-16 September 2021, Russia conducted the formal part of ZAPAD 2021, one in a cycle of annual military exercises which represent the culmination of training by the Russian Federation Armed Forces in a given year. As ‘Zapad’ (the Russian word for ‘west’) suggests, the exercise is centred on what Russia calls the Western strategic sector or ‘direction’. ZAPAD 2021 included Belarus. Accordingly, it was termed ‘a joint strategic exercise’, primarily to emphasise the participation of Belarus as well as that of the Russia-controlled Collective Security Treaty Organisation. ZAPAD 2021 was preceded by weeks of preparatory and associated exercises, and, as repeatedly emphasised by Russia, involved as many as 200,000 troops, drawn predominantly from Russia. ZAPAD 2021 included a powerful communication campaign in the form of messages and narratives, which this study identifies, explores, and explains. This study consists of two separate but interconnected parts: Part I looks at the exercise from the perspective of what the exercise signalled, both explicitly and implicitly. It deconstructs and groups these messages and narratives.

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Russia's Footprint in the Western Balkan Information Environment: Susceptibility to Russian Influence

Author(s): Sanda Svetoka / Language(s): English

Since 2019 the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence (StratCom COE) has been analysing Russia’s influence in the information environment of the Western Balkans (WB). This report is the final piece of the project. It summarises the findings of the previous reports and then goes on to explore and assess the perceptions and attitudes of WB populations with regard to Russian influence activities in the WB media space. In 2020, the NATO StratCom COE published four reports investigating Russia’s tools of influence in the WBs, focusing primarily on the media landscape. Within the framework of the project Russia’s Footprint in the Western Balkan Information Environment, researchers analysed Russia’s interests in the area and its influence toolbox, and identified the vulnerabilities that make the Western Balkan countries susceptible to external manipulation. The project also identified narratives promoted by the Kremlin regarding the WBs and examined the role of local WB media in spreading those narratives. The project researchers have concluded that the Western Balkan region is not in Russia’s immediate sphere of interest; however, the Russian government considers the region a useful and easily accessible arena in which to undermine the EU and NATO. Structural vulnerabilities and societal and political divisions are exploited through cost-effective methods such as information campaigns, influencing local politicians, or even subversive activities such as hampering unity in Montenegro as it was moving toward NATO membership.

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Russian Media Landscape: Structures, Mechanisms, and Technologies of Information Operations

Author(s): Andrey Kuzichkin,Monika Izandra Hanley / Language(s): English

Various reports that have been published by the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence contain detailed analyses of Russian information influence activities, focusing mainly on technology and software. The present study contains a brief analysis of the political, financial, and legislative influence brought to bear on the Russian media environment, making it possible for the Kremlin to influence opinion domestically and to conduct special media operations against Western countries and their allies. This report is devoted to deep aspects of Russian information influence activities that have rarely been the subject of detailed studies. It is an analysis of the structure created by the Russian state to control the flow of information in the paradigm of a ‘hybrid war’ against democratic countries. The paper is presented in three parts: In the section MECHANISMS of STATE CONTROL over the MEDIA in RUSSIA, we show how control over the Russian media space has been consolidated into the hands of a few powerful individuals through transfer of ownership and mandated changes, and provide data on mergers and acquisitions involving Russia’s largest media assets and their subordination to the state. We examine the mechanisms of political influence on information producers by means of nonprofit structures and a system of personnel appointments. We provide data on state financing of Russia’s information policy at the federal and regional levels. We discuss examples of the involvement of Russian special services in state information policy, drawing on the experience of the author and on academic research.

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Strategic Communications Hybrid Threats Toolkit - Applying the principles of NATO Strategic Communications to understand and counter grey zone threats

Author(s): Monika Gill,Pia Hansen / Language(s): English

This research is for people who want to develop their understanding of dangers to national security that come under the umbrella of ‘hybrid threats’. Such threats involve a combination of different hostile measures, furthering an adversary’s strategic goals while occuring in the ‘grey zone’ which exists between peace, crisis and war. The report builds on our publication Hybrid Threats - A Strategic Communications perspective, which analysed 30 scenarios featuring hybrid activities by state actors. Data from the case studies is exploited further, deepening our understanding of hybrid threats and how they might be countered by applying the principles of NATO Strategic Communications. It aims to help the reader develop ways of looking at hybrid threats and then to appreciate how the Strategic Communications process might be applied at the national level. This involves understanding the information environment, then developing a plan which provides coherence to the various instruments a nation can use to leverage strategic influence. Strategic Communications is a realm which suffers from a divergence of definitional interpretations. While NATO Strategic Communications has arguably come of age, there is understandably a lack of commonality across the NATO nations as to how the term is used. Popular usage has Strategic Communications simply as being highly effective at what an organisation says. This confines communication to a narrow arena. Our report builds on NATO’s approach to Strategic Communications - a mindset or philosophy which is underpinned by process and supported by capabilities. When applied at the national level it provides a function of basic statecraft at the intersection of strategy and action.

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Tell me more. Russia on Macron’s détente initiatives

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Emmanuel Macron took office as President of the French Republic in May 2017. In his statements, he has proclaimed the need to engage in dialogue with Russia and work with it to build an architecture of trust and security in Europe. This approach resulted from his diagnosis of crisis in the Western community and the growing assertiveness of non‑Western powers (including Russia), as well as his conviction that unless a modus vivendi with Moscow is found, it will be difficult to ensure the sovereignty and policy effectiveness of France and the entire European Union. The factors that have likely driven Macron also include a desire to promote French business in Russia, as well as an informal rivalry with Germany, which has traditionally played a central role in the EU’s political and economic relations with that country.

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The Non-strategic Partnership. Belarus-China Relations

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński,Jakub Jakóbowski / Language(s): English

Relations between China and Belarus have been developing intensively over the past decade. This process has been fuelled by Beijing’s growing global ambitions as well as Minsk’s efforts to modernise the Belarusian economy and to partially reduce its dependence on Moscow. Increasing pressure from Russia and its inability to build closer relations with the West (which was mainly an effect of violations of human rights and the rule of law) prompted the Belarusian regime to seek alternative partners outside Europe. The aim was to increase its room for manoeuvre in foreign policy, as well as to gain additional sources of capital and new markets. Given China’s great economic potential and its interest in developing cooperation, Belarus mainly focused on China at the beginning of the 21st century, calling it a ‘close ally’. The cooperation gained momentum in the early 2010s, when China adopted a more proactive global policy after Xi Jinping had risen to power.

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The Chinese Communist Party and Its State. Xi Jinping’s Conservative Turn

Author(s): Jakub Jakóbowski,Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

In accordance with the Leninist model, the total dominance of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) over state structures is inscribed into the Chinese political system; the state structures’ sole purpose is to aid the Party to govern China effectively and guarantee the Party’s monopoly on power. The Party makes all personnel decisions, controls domestic and foreign policy, wields direct control over the army, and has the prevailing influence on the economy through the state-owned enterprises sector. It has no legal personality; it exists outside the state structures, in parallel to them, and also above them, acting as their binding agent, and also as the source of its cadres. The Party’s structures are also the place where decisions are taken; they also transmit those decisions’ into the complex and multi-level state structures of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The CCP thus plays the role of the state’s ‘nervous system’, and as such, there is no alternative to it within the PRC’s present political system.

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Örgütsel Politika ve Politik Davranışlara Yönelik Bir Bakış Açısı

Author(s): Özge Mehtap / Language(s): Turkish Publication Year: 0

Although organizational politics is an inevitable and natural phenomenon of organizational life, this issue is not given due importance in organizational studies. Most of the existing studies, on the other hand, approach the organizational politics from a narrow and negative perspective. Politics as a phenomenon contains dilemmas, confusion and different views. Since politics generally has negative connotations as a concept, studies on organizational politics have mostly been discussed in terms of its effect on negative performance indicators, but according to the way it is implemented, politics can actually produce positive or negative results. The important point here is to focus on how it can be implemented to the benefit of the organization, based on the fact that politics is not a negative concept at its core. Increasing the studies in this field in the literature is important in terms of reducing this confusion in the future and at the same time enriching organizational politics literature.

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Türkiye’de Gençlerin Siyasal Değerleri

Author(s): Mehmet Mazhar Yıldız / Language(s): Turkish

The subject of this study is the values of the youth. In the study, the political values of young people of Turkish and Kurdish origin were discussed and the differences and similarities between these two groups were examined comparatively. The political values of young people of Turkish and Kurdish origin were analyzed in three areas: political identity and lifestyle, approach to social life and institutions, and perspective on Turkey's problems. The research was conducted with a face-to-face survey on 667 young people between the ages of 18-30 living in the provinces of Istanbul, Diyarbakir, Kayseri, Trabzon, and Van, and interviews with 26 young people selected from among them. Young people, who were reached by simple random, and purposeful methods, were included in the research, first separated according to their ethnic identities and then according to age, gender, and education level. According to the research findings; there are significant differences among young people in terms of political values. Some of these differences are related to the ethnic origin, education and gender of the youth, and some of them are related to the dominant political culture of the provinces they live in. Again, according to the research findings, there was a significant similarity among young people in terms of trust in democracy. Differences and similarities in political values among young people have emerged as a result of multiple factors, regardless of a specific time or plot. When look at the political history of Turkey in this context, it will be seen that many developments causing social divisions have taken place since the establishment of the Republic: whether for ideological, sectarian or ethnic reasons.

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Exploratory research report on the information environment in a political and security crisis context in the Sahel Region

Author(s): Adib Bencherif,Marie-Eve Carignan / Language(s): English

It can be daunting to describe media dynamics at the scale of a country, or even a group of bordering countries, such as those in the Sahel, given the profusion of what can be considered media productions and the complexity of the connections between them. The countries of the Sahel region are also strongly influenced by external media productions that are often locally accessible. Indeed, these external productions have an impact on the international understanding of the region’s issues. This fact in turn has a significant impact on the sources selected in the monitoring on the Sahel region. We are talking about a media ecosystem rooted in complex and fragile relationships of trust toward different epistemic sources and a relative understanding of the media world, characterized by practices of re-appropriation and information-sharing. Media systems in the Sahel did not wait for the emergence of the Internet to become decentralized, but intrinsically featured rumours and orality. The importance of local radio stations across the region is a manifestation of this today. Understanding this complex world requires an examination of the uses of the media, the messages they convey, the sources they utilize, processes of interpreting content, and the socio-political impact of the content in question.

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Information Laundering via Baltnews on Telegram: How Russian State-Sponsored Media Evade Sanctions and Narrate the War

Author(s): Martha Stolze / Language(s): English

Information has long been used as a foreign policy tool by the Kremlin. Most recently the Russian attack on Ukraine has prompted a new wave of research into the way pro-Kremlin messaging is spread in Western countries and to what effect. This study examines a specific form of information influence campaigns (IICs): information laundering (IL). IL is a compilation of deception techniques and thus has the potential to change readers’ beliefs and attitudes. Overall, the study presents a refined, systematic, and reproducible way to identify which current IL attempts target the audience of a specific Telegram channel, and which networks of websites are behind these attempts. It also asks which potential framing biases the audience could be influenced by and with what strategic aim.

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Virtual Manipulation Brief 2023/1: Generative AI and its Implications for Social Media Analysis

Author(s): Rolf Fredheim / Language(s): English

This Virtual Manipulation report explores the impact of generative AI on social media analysis. Large Language Models (LLMs), such as the powerful GPT-4, can create highly convincing content that appears legitimate and unique. This makes it nearly impossible to distinguish between real and fake accounts. But, defenders can employ the same tools to more effectively monitor social media spaces. Careless implementations by adversaries introduce weaknesses that can result in accounts inadvertently disclosing that they are bots. As LLMs rely on prompts to shape their output, targeted psychological operations (‘psyops’) can provoke chatbots to reveal their true identities. The fight against manipulation is entering a new phase, but it remains unclear whether, in the long run, defenders or attackers will derive greater benefit from AI systems.

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