№082: China’s New Silk Road Diplomacy

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English

The destinations of China’s new leaders’ foreign trips show that the PRC’s foreign policy domain remains its neighbourhood. China is trying in particular to enhance cooperation with its Central and Southeast Asia border states in what is called “new silk road” diplomacy. Behind this approach are mostly domestic rationales: a need to preserve stability on its borders and in the western part of China, secure export markets and energy supplies, develop inland transport routes as an alternative to unstable sea lines, and to narrow the development gap between the eastern and western parts of China. The PRC’s “opening to the West” and reinvigoration of its Western Development Policy is a window of opportunity for Poland. The establishment in Gansu province of the Lanzhou New Area—the first state-level development zone in northwest China—could become a bridgehead for a Polish economic presence in this part of China, or even a springboard for Poland’s “Go West China” strategy.

№076: “A Beautiful Future for Central Europe:” Hungary’s Regional Policy in the Period 2010–2013

Author(s): Dariusz Kałan / Language(s): English

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has, from the beginning of his tenure, made public declarations of his deep engagement with cooperation in the region, and outlined very ambitious visions about its future. The idea to make 2013, the year of Hungary’s presidencies of the Visegrad Group and the Central European Initiative, a Central European year, is a part of the policy of special attachment to regional matters too. However, there is a visible gap between politicians’ rhetoric and their activity. This is especially true regarding Hungary’s dialogue with Romania and Slovakia, which, due to many historical, social and psychological obstacles, has always been most challenging for leaders in Budapest. Orbán’s government, though, by taking steps to culturally and politically unify Hungarians from the Carpathian Basin, promoting historically ambiguous persons and inviting revisionists such as Erika Steinbach to parliament, not only fails to engender a good atmosphere in the region, but also proves how lively among the country’s governing elite are both resentments from the past and temptations to use them to achieve temporary political goals.

№058: Energy and Meat: Towards Better Polish–Saudi Relations

Author(s): Kinga Brudzińska,Patrycja Sasnal,Bartosz Wiśniewski / Language(s): English

Poland and Saudi Arabia share a counterintuitive commonality of features and interests. Both are regional “middle powers,” and Poland’s energy poor but agriculturally strong economy makes it surprisingly compatible with the energy rich, agriculturally weak Saudi Arabia. Yet bilateral relations between these nations leave a lot to be desired. There are at least three domains in which relatively little effort could bring much progress in releasing the potential of these relations.

№057: Towards New Political and Economic Agreements with Japan: Bringing New Dynamism into the Strategic Partnership between the EU and Japan

Author(s): Radosław Tyszkiewicz / Language(s): English

The forthcoming EU–Japan summit heralds a new era in the relations between these two major economic powers. Both players are focused on repairing their economies and putting growth back on track. To make this happen they are ready to negotiate legally binding agreements, which would help expand their cooperation. The negotiators will have to resolve a number of contentious issues, but the agreed outcome may result in considerable benefits for both the EU and Japan.

№056: How the European Union Is Shaping the Gas Market in Poland

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk / Language(s): English

Gas markets in the European Union are becoming more liberalised and integrated. But this model is rather typical only for North and Western Europe, while Poland significantly lags behind. Polish authorities only recently made some strategic decisions, but they constitute merely boundaries for a well functioning and liquid gas market in Poland integrated with the EU system. While the pace and scope of the necessary changes must be the subject of a reliable, expert debate, too much hesitation is already creating unnecessary uncertainty. Poland risks missing the opportunity to become an important player in Central and Eastern Europe.

№054: The Baltic States’ Success Story in Combating the Economic Crisis: Consequences for Regional Cooperation within the EU and with Russia

Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English

The global economic downturn of 2008 and the financial and ongoing fiscal crisis in the eurozone have proved to be extremely painful for newer EU Member States Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. At the same time, however, the crises have revealed some significant differences between these three small, seemingly homogenous countries, and especially in the effectiveness of their anti-crisis policies. The diverse results of these policies were shaped in several respects by internal factors, such as the sensitivity of their economies to foreign markets or the different response times of the governments to the first signs of the economic downturn as well as the socio-political background at the time of the crisis. However, the Baltics have indeed learnt lessons, as each one implemented austerity-style policies. Since 2011, economic growth has accelerated in all of the Baltic States, and their struggle with the crisis already seems to be a unique success story that affects regional cooperation as well as relations with Russia.

№053: East of Centre: Can the Visegrad Group Speak with One Voice on Eastern Policy?

Author(s): Dariusz Kałan / Language(s): English

The Visegrad Group has for a long time been showing ongoing efforts to develop cooperation with the Eastern Partnership countries by advocating for them in the EU and supporting their democratisation and transformation processes. However, even though the V4 as a whole has aspirations to create an active and compatible role in the East, each Visegrad country also pursues its own Eastern policy rooted in a historical and social background, particular economic and geopolitical interests as well as temporary political goals. Thus, there are areas in which the individual member states do not cooperate with one another, but rather act as competitors. By the same token, since Eastern policy is not necessarily a priority in the national foreign policies of each V4 country, there are also activities that are not promoted to the same degree by all of them. This paper analyses the Eastern policies (understood as maintaining relations with the Eastern Partnership countries and Russia) of Poland’s Visegrad partners—the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia—and discusses areas in which the V4’s efforts may be unified.

№049: German and Polish Energy Policies: Is Cooperation Possible?

Author(s): Jarosław Ćwiek-Karpowicz,Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Kirsten Westphal / Language(s): English

№046: Poland and Brazil: Narrowing the Distance, Exploring Mutual Potential

Author(s): Kinga Brudzińska,Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

The next issue of PISM Policy Papers, by Kinga Brudzińska and Bartłomiej Znojek, prepared in cooperation with the Centre for International Relations, School of Social Sciences and History (CPDOC) in Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV). With a long tradition of diplomatic relations, Poland and Brazil remain distant partners. A divergence of interests and the lack of traditionally close ties were among the main causes for the relatively low intensity of bilateral cooperation. Brazil’s and Poland’s economic and political transformations, their consequential growing roles in their respective regions and good economic performance of both countries are the basis upon which to build bilateral cooperation. The visit of Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski to Brazil at the end of November 2012 will provide an opportunity to explore the potential for increased cooperation between the two countries.The paper has been prepared in cooperation with the Centre for International Relations, School of Social Sciences and History (CPDOC) in Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV).

№041: China’s Response to the United States’ Asia–Pacific Strategy

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English

Since China and the U.S. try to present a tougher stance towards each other, both countries seem to have found themselves on the collision course. China’s growing economic influence, military strength and rising assertiveness in the region has paved the way for deeper U.S. involvement in Asia–Pacific. Although official Chinese response is muted, U.S. policy is seen by the PRC as a threat to its position as a great regional power and a future global superpower. Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar explains in this paper how the countries that are “neither friends nor foes” pursue their goals and what could be the outcome of the tensions between them.

№039: Visegrad’s Winding Road to the EU Multiannual Financial Framework 2014–2020

Author(s): Dariusz Kałan,Paweł Tokarski,Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

The next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) of the EU is taking shape amidst uncertainty about the future of the Eurozone. The crisis of the common European currency overshadows the bargaining over the MFF, and impacts the calculations of the countries constituting the Visegrad Group—the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia—or the V4, during the negotiations. Each member of the V4 has a deeply embedded interest in upholding the prominence and extent of EU’s cohesion policy in the years to come. In the light of the attempts to put a cap on this budget figure, a natural convergence of interests and positions would seem natural. Still, as authors of the analysis point out, the economic outlook of particular V4 countries, their political and economic partners of choice on the European level, as well as their respective visions of the future of European integration, are bearing heavily on their actual policies during the MFF negotiations. The V4 as a whole stands to gain only if individual members will be able to navigate the existing or emerging differences. If these differences prevail, and one of the countries breaks rank in search of a better negotiating position, the V4 is likely to arrive at suboptimal results at best.

№037: Energy Policy in the Baltic States—United or Separate?

Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English

Energy security is a priority for Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia—three former Soviet republics that are still dependent on supplies from Russia. Although the three countries are often regarded as relatively homogeneous, their energy policy indicates visible differences and their priorities do not necessarily go together. At the same time, such small states with limited potential for large and expensive projects seem to be doomed to cooperate, especially that investments in infrastructure at the regional level are required. The author of this Policy Paper explains the differences in the energy policies of the Baltic States and elaborates on chances for coordinated efforts towards greater energy security.

№032: The Implications of Hungary’s National Policy for Relations with Neighbouring States

Author(s): Anita Sobják / Language(s): English

The paper highlights the importance of Hungary’s policy towards the Hungarian diaspora in the countries of Central and South-Eastern Europe. The author points to both discontinuities and similarities in the approach of post-Cold War Hungarian governments and political elites to the issue of so-called national policy, as well as its interplay with other strategic directions of Hungary’s foreign policy in this period, most notably Euro-Atlantic integration and good-neighbourly relations. The analysis focuses on the national policy as implemented by the current Hungarian government of the FIDESZ political party. The policy itself is rooted in the Hungarian legislation, and is reflected in the structures of the Hungarian administration. As such, its implementation has not been without considerable negative repercussions for Hungary’s relations with its neighbours but, as the author points out, in some cases the relationship remained amicable, or at least cooperative.

№030: Full Speed Ahead? Poland in Baltic Sea Region Cooperation

Author(s): Lidia Puka / Language(s): English

The paper offers a useful overview of the factors affecting inter- and sub-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR). The author points to a notable absence of so-called hard security, low-consensual issues on the regional agenda, while at the same time diagnosing a long list of reasons behind limited efficacy of cooperation in tackling soft challenges. Diversity in terms of demographic and economic potential among the regional partners, varying level of socio-economic development, and different priorities assigned to the BSR make for a complex and demanding setting for policymakers. All of the key challenges facing the region—boosting trade, bridging civilisational gaps, ensuring greater coordination of environmental policies, and enhancing the interconnectivity in terms of transportation network—can be met, but will require greater political engagement, adjustment of national priorities and instruments of cooperation, as well as adequate sourcing. The paper concludes with an analysis of Poland’s possible input into a more advantageous cooperation in the BSR.

№028: Ukraine’s First Year in the Energy Community: Restart Needed

Author(s): Igor Lyubashenko / Language(s): English

Ukraine’s membership in the Energy Community has recently come under intense scrutiny because of apparent disconnect between the expectations of the Ukrainian authorities on the one side, and of the organisation’s representatives on the other. The paper points to the possible reasons for this disturbing divergence, highlighting in particular the difficulties in reforming the Ukrainian energy sector. Some of the delays in meeting the legal obligations resulting from the membership in the Community can be attributed to the ongoing negotiations with Russia over the prices of imported natural gas. Although Ukraine’s long-term, strategic interests in the area of natural gas transit and electricity production could help bridge the differences with the Energy Community, there is no room for complacency on either side. The author argues that progress towards Ukraine’s further integration with the EU in the energy field is not a foregone conclusion, and a rethinking of both the pace and the instruments of cooperation is urgently needed.

№026: The EU Budgetary Chess Game, the Polish Presidency and the Shadows of the Debt Crisis

Author(s): Paweł Tokarski,Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

The times are hardly auspicious for making tough decisions about the future of the European Union’s finances. European integration is under stress in the light of the potentially debilitating debt crisis which threatens the long-term viability of the eurozone. In addition, the negotiations over the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF)—an arduous, seemingly routine process, with scant possibilities for bold moves and widespread awareness about the limits of the eventual compromise, yet extremely prone to politicization—have become even more protracted as new actors, most notably the European Parliament, seek to gain additional prominence. Still, the process will be largely driven by the biggest net contributors to the EU budget, namely Germany, France and the United Kingdom. Transparency could thus be a decisive feature of the negotiating process, allowing less influential Member States to hedge against the proposals undermining the solidarity which underpins the EU budget. Still, as the authors conclude, the outlook is rather pessimistic for the EU, as the stalemate hampers a more effective application of the MFF to tackle economic challenges.

№024: The European Union and Brazil as Privileged Partners? Difficult Path to an Authentic Strategic Partnership

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Following the creation of the EU-Brazil strategic partnership nearly five years ago, the density of contacts between the European Union and the largest Latin American country has grown steadily. However, while it looks impressive on paper given the potential of both sides, and seems like a no-brainer in the light of EU’s global ambitions and Brazil’s economic and political rise, including its status as a part of the BRICS forum, the relationship is not free from significant tensions. It is not entirely clear whether the seemingly unanimous endorsement of a multi-polar international order means the same for both partners. In addition, further deepening of the EU-Brazil partnership could have rather adverse effects on consolidating Mercosur, and EU dialogue with that bloc. It will be increasingly hard for the EU, adversely affected by the economic downturn, to gain real interest of Brazilian authorities in a truly strategic partnership, as they evidently see relations with other emerging countries as much more advantageous in carrying out own global ambitions. While the EU and Brazil will continue to consider each other as important partners, they need to carefully manage these and other incompatibilities of their relationship, lest they fail to fulfil its potential.

№013: Polish Development Cooperation: A Turning Point

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Reforma polskiego systemu współpracy na rzecz rozwoju wkracza w decydującą fazę. Niebawem Polska będzie dysponować odpowiednim instrumentarium prawnym, dzięki któremu będzie mogła utrwalić rezultaty najnowszych zmian organizacyjnych i koncepcyjnych w odniesieniu do sposobu świadczenia pomocy rozwojowej. Autor analizy dowodzi, że szybkie przyjęcie nowej ustawy w sprawie współpracy na rzecz rozwoju - najlepiej jeszcze przed zakończeniem obecnej kadencji parlamentarnej - jest nieodzowne jeśli Polska ma ambicje odgrywać istotną rolę w międzynarodowej współpracy w tej dziedzinie. Niezależnie od tego na rozstrzygnięcie nadal oczekują dwa podstawowe dylematy polskiej pomocy na rzecz rozwoju. Po pierwsze, polska pomoc uprzywilejowuje kierunek wschodni, co jest zrozumiałe, ale może mieć negatywne skutki w świetle międzynarodowych zobowiązań Polski jako państwa świadczącego pomoc na rzecz rozwoju, zwłaszcza w stosunku do państw afrykańskich. Po drugie, Polska musi podjąć decyzję w sprawie priorytetu, jakiemu ma służyć świadczona pomoc: wspieraniu procesów demokratyzacyjnych czy rozwojowi. Wreszcie polska pomoc musi posiadać odpowiednie źródła finansowania - nakłady finansowe są najpewniejszą gwarancją skuteczności projektów rozwojowych, a zarazem będą świadczyć o wiarygodności Polski w tej sferze.

№007: Taiwan’s Internal Debate about ROC-PRC Relations

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English

Autorka analizuje najważniejsze wydarzenia w stosunkach tajwańsko-chińskich w okresie po ostatnich wyborach prezydenckich na Tajwanie wiosną 2008 r. Prezydent Ma Ying-jeou prowadzi wobec ChRL pragmatyczną politykę, obliczoną na zwiększenie pola manewru Tajwanu na arenie międzynarodowej. Kulminacją tej strategii było zawarcie latem 2010 kompleksowego porozumienia handlowego z Chinami. Jednak już w trakcie negocjacji umowy okazała się ona kwestią niezwykle kontrowersyjną, o czym świadczył zdecydowany sprzeciw ze strony tajwańskiej opozycji. Nie jest jasne, czy w obliczu napięć wewnętrznych Tajwan utrzyma dotychczasowy kurs polityki wobec Chin. Niepewność potęgują spory prawne wokół implementacji umowy tajwańsko-chińskiej, polaryzacja tajwańskiej sceny politycznej, a szerzej także meandry polityki Tajwanu wobec Chin.

№005: The G20 on the Path to Finding Relevance in the New World Economic Order

Author(s): Artur Gradziuk / Language(s): English

Autor analizuje rolę G20 w koordynacji reakcji społeczności międzynarodowej na globalny kryzys finansowy z 2008 roku. Działania G20 były skuteczne w początkowej fazie kryzysu, gdy jej członkowie dostrzegali wartość wspólnych działań na rzecz poprawy płynności finansowej, pobudzenia wzrostu gospodarczego oraz przywrócenia równowagi globalnego systemu finansowego. Po przezwyciężeniu najpoważniejszych trudności na pierwszy plan wysunęły się jednak różnice w podejściu do kwestii regulacji oraz polityki makroekonomicznej. Skala tych sporów może wystawić ambitny program francuskiego przewodnictwa w G20 na poważną próbę. To czy grupa będzie w stanie przywrócić dawną jedność i sprostać powszechnym oczekiwaniom wypełniania roli światowego rządu gospodarczego będzie zależeć od gotowości do koordynacji stanowisk przez najważniejszych członków G-20 – Stany Zjednoczone, Chiny i Unię Europejską.