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Политически брифинг № 46 на CSD: Корупция и антикорупция в България (2013 – 2014 г.)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The policy brief makes an overview of the levels of corruption and the impact of corruption on the societal sectors. In 2014, the Corruption Monitoring System has recorded the highest levels of involvement of the Bulgarian population in corruption transactions in the last 15 years. In the past year Bulgarians have conceded to being involved on average in roughly 158 thousand corruption transactions monthly. Most corruption transactions have been initiated by the administration through exerting corruption pressure on those seeking public services. The public’s susceptibility to corruption in 2014 is similar to 1999 despite the increase of intolerance to corrupt behaviour. In the business sector corruption’s effectiveness for solving problems has grown in 2014. Most companies do not trust public organisations and do not consider they are treated equally in courts.

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Политически брифинг № 47 на CSD: Ролята на ЕС и НАТО за решаване на проблема с рисковете за енергийната сигурност и завладяването на държавата в Европа

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The Crimean crisis and the continuing instability in Eastern Ukraine have turned into a rude wake up call for Europe’s energy security vulnerabilities. Russia has demonstrated its capacity to yield political and economic influence on the countries in the CEE and the Black Sea regions by leveraging its dominant position on their energy markets. Russia has pressured governments to support its flagship project, South Stream, at the expense of the countries’ long-term strategy to diversify their natural gas supply and in defiance of EU’s strategy for building a liberalised common market. Since the beginning of the crisis the EU and NATO have scrambled for finding the right measures to a balanced response to Russia’s growing assertiveness, while striving to alleviate the most acute energy security risks for their members.

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Russia after two years of full-scale war. Fragile stability and growing aggressiveness

Author(s): Andrzej Wilk,Miłosz Bartosiewicz,Katarzyna Chawryło,Maria Domańska,Marek Menkiszak,Witold Rodkiewicz,Filip Rudnik,Iwona Wiśniewska,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

The Putin regime remains stable, but this state of affairs is fragile. The Kremlin has toughened its neo-totalitarian course in domestic policy, its propaganda and government officials depict war as the natural state for both society and the state, and aggressive militarism forms the basis of indoctrination. GDP has grown, driven by war-related spending, but the power of the factors causing this growth have been diminishing. Passing the costs of the war on to business and society may lead to internal tensions. The Russian armed forces have sustained heavy losses during the two years of the invasion, but they still have considerable potential for mobilisation and are in a state of constant expansion, particularly in the western strategic direction. Foreign policy has been subordinated to the immediate goal of transforming Ukraine into a truncated entity with limited sovereignty. At the same time, Russia has moved to destroy the post-Cold War order in Europe & the wider world, and to confront the West head-on. It has stepped up its efforts to secure maximum support from those countries which are in conflict with the West, such as China, Iran and North Korea, and to ensure that countries in the Global South remain neutral. The attitude of the West and the outcome of the war in Ukraine, which may be decided over the next year or so, will be crucial for Russia’s internal stability and its ability to pursue its aggressive external objectives.

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Winning the war with Russia. The West’s counter-strategy towards Moscow

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is aimed at subjugating or destroying this country, upending the current political and security order in Europe and forcing a major revision of the global order. The conflict is systemic and will continue as long as Putin’s dictatorial regime remains in power in Moscow. Although Russia is failing in Ukraine, it has not abandoned its maximalist goals. It is crucial to weaken Russia’s ability to wage this war and to foster regime change. These efforts should include a short-term surge of pressure through support for Ukraine to help it achieve decisive success on the battlefield as well as a long-term strategy of confrontation with Russia based on several political, economic and security pillars. This requires further consolidation of the Western community in the political, security and economic areas, public acceptance of the strategy’s goals and the formation of a global coalition of countries to defend the basic principles of the international order.

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Germany bids farewell to coal. The next stage of the Energiewende

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

The phasing out of coal (Kohleausstieg) is the next stage of Germany’s energy transformation, after nuclear power plant shutdowns. Lignite and hard coal still play an important role in the German energy sector, but are also a significant source of carbon emissions. It will not be possible to reach the country’s climate policy targets without abandoning these resources. This is a major challenge in terms of energy system restructuring on the one hand, and the various, often conflicting political, economic and social interests on the other. Meeting the new, more ambitious climate goals requires the new government to clearly accelerate the decarbonisation of the economy, including the coal phase-out in particular. This report is an attempt to comprehensively address this issue as the new term of the Bundestag is about to start. It presents the role of coal in Germany’s energy sector, the context of the debate on the Kohleausstieg and the significance of a social compromise in the political initiation of this process. It includes an explanation of the coal phase-out mechanism adopted in the Act of 3 July 2020, while the issue of the restructuring of mining regions is also explored. Finally, the consequences of the transformation are set out and the perspectives of its course in the coming years are outlined.

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Israels Palestinian challenges. The state’s identity, a leadership crisis and the "new" Middle East

Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English

The conflict with the Palestinian side is a long-term existential challenge for Israel. A resolution of the dispute or its absence will be decisive for the future ethnic character of this state and for its political system, as well as its external and internal security. This text highlights the key parameters of the dispute from the Israeli perspective and reveals what internal and external factors are shaping their approaches to the issue. In particular, it emphasises the role of interested social groups, the significance of the formation of the “government of change”, the importance of a new regional reality and the involvement of the United States. Windows of opportunity pertaining to the dynamisation and evolution of the international context of the conflict do not change the nature of the Palestinian challenges to Israel and the inevitability of confronting them. They also do not guarantee that a fundamental breakthrough will emerge within the foreseeable future.

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The breadbasket of the world. Agricultural development in Ukraine

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

The aim of this study is to provide a comprehensive overview of the Ukrainian agricultural sector in the light of the act on introducing an agricultural land market adopted in March 2020, which partially came into force in mid-2021 and will fully enter into force in 2024. It will allow, for the first time in the history of independent Ukraine, the free and legal trade in agricultural land. This will have far-reaching consequences both for local agriculture and for the country as a whole. The development of the agricultural sector, which has already progressed at an impressive rate in recent years, can be expected to accelerate further still. It should be remembered that Ukraine is the largest country in Europe in terms of area (excluding the Russian Federation) and more than half of its territory is covered by very fertile soils. The vast majority of the country has a climate favourable for agricultural production – the land is characterised by a long growing season for plants, plenty of sunshine and no problems with shortages of water for agriculture. The state thus has excellent conditions for this type of economy.

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The Beijing-Moscow axis. The foundations of an asymmetric alliance

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz,Jakub Jakóbowski,Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

The asymmetric alliance between Russia and China is the product of a long and unevenly paced process of relation-building that was launched by both sides shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It was driven by the mutually felt necessity to regulate bilateral contacts (including the resolution of border disputes, adjustment of spheres of influence in the common neighbourhood), find common answers to global strategic challenges and, above all, a shared sense of a structural conflict with the United States.The Beijing-Moscow axis is, however, not merely an alliance between two states, but primarily an alliance between two authoritarian regimes that define their national interests in terms of maximising their chances of survival, to which end they have been striving to revise the existing world order. Both the Kremlin and Zhongnanhai see the international environment as the main source of threats to the political stability of their rule. Therefore, they share a common interest in shaping a global order that would provide the best conditions from the point of view of their continued existence. The fear of the West and of its ideological influence on their own societies serves to strengthen the alliance even further. To the Russian and Chinese elites, it is not any specific policy of the US or the European Union that poses an existential threat to them, but the very existence of a democratic alternative to their systems of government.

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Assisted assertiveness. Changes in Bulgaria’s policy towards Russia

Author(s): Mateusz Seroka / Language(s): English

In March 2021, during the run up to the parliamentary elections, the Bulgarian counter-intelligence cracked a Russian espionage network that had been collecting information, including on Bulgaria’s activity in NATO. This was not the first blow Russian intelligence has received in recent years. Since tensions began in 2019, Sofia has expelled nine Russian diplomats. The intensity of the disputes between the two countries contrasts with the traditionally good relations between them. In Bulgarian historical memory, Russia appears most often as a close ally in the fight against the Ottoman Empire. The Kremlin’s great influence was also preserved after the fall of communism due to Bulgaria’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels. Unexpectedly, however, after 2014 a series of tensions arose between Sofia and Moscow, which seem to indicate that the two countries are growing apart. This publication analyses to what extent the strains result from the internal evolution of the Bulgarian public, and to what extent they are caused by the pressure on the country from its Western partners.

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New ideas for total defence. Comprehensive security in Finland and Estonia

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

In recent years, the Nordic and Baltic region has witnessed a growing interest in the concept of comprehensive security, which hails from the Cold War doctrine of total defence. This originates from the regional pivot to territorial defence and countering hybrid threats. A comprehensive approach to security is considered a driver for enhancing national resilience and for ensuring the best possible operational environment for armed defence. It incorporates military and non-military aspects of national security, and crisis management. Finland and Estonia stand out with respect to a comprehensive security strategy. Among the Nordic countries, Finland has the longest continuous tradition of a comprehensive approach to security, rooted in its strategic culture and societal background, while Estonia was the first of the Baltic states to begin building a comprehensive security system (already in 2008). The aim of this report is to present the concepts for comprehensive security in the Nordic and Baltic states, focusing on Finland and Estonia as case studies, and to analyse the practical ways in which comprehensive security is achieved in the two countries.

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The non-strategic partnership. Belarus-China relations

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński,Jakub Jakóbowski / Language(s): English

Relations between China and Belarus have been developing intensively over the past decade. This process has been fuelled by Beijing’s growing global ambitions as well as Minsk’s efforts to modernise the Belarusian economy and to partially reduce its dependence on Moscow. Given China’s great economic potential and desire to develop cooperation, it became the main non-European partner for Minsk at the beginning of the 21st century. Beijing decided to use Minsk’s great openness to cooperation and turned Belarus into an important laboratory for the Belt and Road Initiative, which was presented as one of the greatest successes of Xi Jinping’s flagship project. However, the two sides had quite different expectations as to the principles of their cooperation. In turn, the extremely ambitious visions were not filled with real content. The development of relations with China has not led to a structural transformation of the Belarusian economy. Instead, its trade deficit and foreign debt have increased. As a result, along with the growing disappointment with cooperation with Minsk, the Chinese administration and experts are again showing increasing interest in Ukraine, which is considered a much more attractive economic partner.

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The leader is gasping for breath. Germany's climate policy

Author(s): Rafał Bajczuk,Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

For years, Germany has claimed to be the leader of global climate policy and has continued to raise the issue of global warming on the international forum. All over the world, Germany is associated with the transition to renewable energy sources. The German word for this transition, Energiewende, has become a permanent entry in the glossary of terms used by energy experts. Since the last decade, Germany’s ambitious goals and its ‘green’ image have increasingly clashed with numerous problems faced by this transition. Measures carried out by successive governments were inconsistent with what had initially been declared. The German authorities lacked the determination to implement solutions which could potentially undermine the interests of influential industrial, business and social groups. Germany’s cautious attitude to the EU’s climate policy reform resulted in it being referred to as a ‘brake’ on the progress of this policy. Instead of positioning itself as an active leader, Berlin took up the inconvenient role of an actor responding to external initiatives.A sine qua non for Germany to be able to maintain its lead in international climate policy will involve it regaining its credibility as the leader of actions to combat global warming. This can only happen once Germany resolves its problems with Energiewende and embarks on a path to emissions reduction in line with the adopted targets.

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Digitalisation under surveillance. The development of the 5G network in Russia

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

The digital transformation has become one of the Russian government’s economic priorities during Vladimir Putin’s fourth presidential term. At its core has been the development of ICT infrastructure, and especially the deployment of fifth-generation mobile networks (5G). The development of the digital sector has been dominated by security issues, which are seen as more important than technical or financial efficiency. It is expected that Russia’s 5G infrastructure will rely on Russian technologies, software and devices, and state bodies have been heavily involved in its implementation. As a result of a fierce rivalry between the main actors vying to influence the course of the digital transformation, its master plan is still in the process of being formulated. As regards the 5G network, the dispute centres on two issues: the choice of the operator market model (with the government opting for an infrastructure monopoly) and the choice of radio frequencies (with the security agencies opposing the release of the most prospective bands).

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Nine dashes. Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea

Author(s): Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

Territorial disputes occur in the South China Sea, which is a major hot spot in East Asia and to a large degree also globally. Due to its fundamental importance for global maritime transport, its natural resources and its strategic location, the South China Sea has become an area of interest for the world’s greatest powers. Although the importance of the South China Sea cannot be overestimated, territorial disputes affecting it have remained unsettled since the end of World War II. Since its establishment, People’s Republic of China has sustained its territorial claims to a major part of the South China Sea and, since the 1970s, it has been making active attempts to impose its jurisdiction over the region. This is accompanied by China challenging and ignoring international legal regulations in an unprecedented manner. For China, achieving domination in the South China Sea is a means of proving its superpower status. It is also one of many elements of China’s rivalry with the US for supremacy in East Asia. As a consequence, China is provoking not only the region’s states but most importantly the US and its allies to action. For these states, curbing China’s attempts is tantamount to defending both international law and their credibility as the guarantors of the international order. Since the beginning of the 2010s, the dispute has been mounting in proportion to the deepening political and economic rivalry between Beijing and Washington. At present, the COVID-19 pandemic is lending this conflict a new dynamic.

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The Gordian knot of the Caucasus. The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is the ‘mother’ of all post-Soviet conflicts. It is the oldest of them, it involves the largest number of actors (including mediators and intermediaries), and also covers the most dimensions: military, political, economic and social. The Karabakh issue has come to dominate the post-Soviet history of Armenia and Azerbaijan, shaping their modern statehoods; left a lasting mark on the region, including its transport infrastructure; and has become an instrument of control over the South Caucasus for Russia. Despite the fact that the present significance of the conflict has decreased since the wars in Georgia and Ukraine, it remains an important element of politics at the junction of post-Soviet Eurasia and the Middle East. Each decision made in this connection will set a certain standard for the area of ​​the former USSR and for Moscow's relations with the former Soviet republics.A possible new war would violate the security system in this part of the world. Such a scenario is unlikely, but not unrealistic. It is made more likely by the fact that the current state of political suspension does not represent a ‘freezing’ of the conflict, but is rather a form of ‘stable instability’: armed incidents occur every day, and people are killed regularly.This report is intended as a handy compendium of the conflict. It has been produced more than 30 years after its outbreak and over 25 years since the end of the Karabakh war. It describes its changing dynamics over time, the interests of the participants and external actors, the course of the peace process, the current state of affairs, and the prospects for the future.

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A European Defence Union. The EU's new instruments in the area of security and defence

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Since 2016, efforts to increase cooperation in the EU’s security and defence policy have accelerated. New initiatives have been undertaken in the military, industrial and civilian dimensions under the label of a European Defence Union. So far, nothing indicates that the enhanced cooperation of the EU member states will lead to an integration of their defence policies or to building an alternative to NATO. The new EU instruments, even if they are actively used by the member states, will to only a small extent increase European military capabilities, lead to innovation in the European defence industry or improve the capacity of the military and civilian crisis management missions. This report presents and analyses the EU’s instruments, as well as the opportunities and challenges they present to those EU member states that form NATO’s eastern flank at the same time.

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Between overt disinformation and covert practice. The Russian special services’ game

Author(s): Jolanta Darczewska / Language(s): English

It is generally believed that one sign that the secret services are doing their job well is media silence. In this respect, Russia is a special case: the services receive an excess of media coverage, which is part of the country’s information warfare. The artificial, mythologised image of the services conflicts with their non-public practices. These are revealed when their cover is blown, in journalist investigations and when the opposition publicises cases where the special services act illegally. The media coverage of the Skripals’ case was a model example. It brought the Russian special services back into current debate, and the rhetoric of secret killings reinforced their negative image as a lawless force. It also triggered a consolidated reaction from Western states and international organisations. The Russian special services now have to deal with ever stronger defences in the West. But that does not mean they will stop undertaking activities in the information space, including cyberspace, which may offer the Kremlin convenient tools to influence the global situation. On the contrary, Russia will aim to deploy a full range of information-war forces and measures.

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Industry 40. Germany’s new industrial policy

Author(s): Rafał Bajczuk,Konrad Popławski / Language(s): Estonian

For several decades industry has been the strength of the German economy. The Fourth Industrial Revolution, characterised by the wide use of the internet &digital technologies in all spheres of the economy, is transforming the market in ways which threaten the position of German manufacturing sectors. The challenge for Germany lies in new innovative leaders and IT tycoons entering the automotive sector, who have ambitious plans to create self-driving cars fully integrated with digital technologies. In turn, the German machine industry is afraid of competition from China, which is rapidly catching up, as it has vast financial resources to develop innovation and buy up foreign technology. The German state’s response to the challenges ahead lies in the Industry 4.0 concept, i.e. the construction of entire production plants capable of autonomously coordinating production processes amongst themselves. German companies need to gain dominant positions on the markets for smart devices and self-driving cars, urban mobility systems, complex systems for producing energy from renewable sources, and improving energy efficiency. This requires a radical change in German manufacturers’ existing business models, an increase in their competence in the use of digital technologies, and ensuring access for companies to modern IT infrastructure and the data they need.

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ASSESSING THE PERFORMANCE OF THE BUNDESTAG’S INQUIRY COMMITTEE ON NSU

Author(s): Katarina Đokić / Language(s): English

One of the biggest affairs in the recent German history is set to reach its (partial) conclusion. The German Bundestag Inquiry Committee on the terrorist group Nationalsozialistische Untergrund (NSU) submitted on August 22nd the final report on its findings; the report is expected to be discussed in the Bundestag in a special session on September 2nd.

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CORRUPTION AT THE SERBIAN BORDER POLICE

Author(s): Saša Đorđević / Language(s): English

The topic of corruption in the border police is important because Serbia is a transit country which borders four EU member-states. The consequences are multifold. The goal of many criminal groups is to conquer the market of the European Union, whose economy is improving after several years of economic crisis (Balcerowicz 2013, 3). Serbia is a part of the Balkan route, which is well-known to criminal groups. Also, a common feature of a vast majority of migrants is that they illegally cross several international borders to reach Serbia and enter this country in the same way. In the process, they use the services of organized groups of smugglers who charge them a high price in order to help them to cross the border and to secure accommodation in transit countries (Center for the Protection of and Assistance to Asylum-Seekers 2013, 9). One also needs to add to this a strong intensity of international traffic in Serbia, particularly during the summer period, which is favorable for „petty“ corruption. All this helps to strengthen corruption pressure on the Serbian Border Police.

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