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19.1. The political imaginary of Croatian national history 19.2. On the history of Bosniak mythology 19.3. The Sarajevo Paradoxon
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Mass Media in the Service of Ideological Consensus 20.2. The structural change of the Slovenian public 20.3. The »freedom of the press« in Serbia 20.4. The beginning of pluralism in Croatia and its dangers 20.5. Notes on other media landscapes
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21.1. Accession to power and turn to nationalism 21.2. From the destruction of provincial autonomy to aggression against the northern republics 21.3. From the conquests in Bosnia to the defeat in Kosovo
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22.1. The start 22.2. How to Secure State Borders 22.3. The War for New Borders and the UN in Croatia 22.4. Greater Serbian expansion in Bosnia-Herzegovina 22.5. Resistance, side wars and NATO intervention
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23.1. Serbian war aims, strategies and operations 23.2. War aims, strategies and operations of the other actors 23.3. The Kosovo conflict until the end of 1998
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24.1. The war in Croatia 24.2. Bosnia-Herzegovina 24.3. Conclusions
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25.1. Migrations and ethnic fantasies 25.2. Ethnic »cleansing«: the delusion of the nationally pure 25.3. Planning, strategy and tactics of ethnic cleansing policy 19911995 25.4. Mass rape 25.5. epilogue
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26.1. Civic versus Ethnic Loyalty 26.2. The Prelude to the Bosniak-Croat Conflict 26.3. Croatia's goals in Bosnia-Herzegovina 26.4. Unequal defense of the country and apple of discord Mostar 26.5. The devastating year 1993 26.6. Before and after the Washington Agreement 26.7. From the EU administration for Mostar to Dayton to the difficult peace
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27.1. The turning point and end of the war 27.2. The Dayton Agreement 27.3. Bosnia-Herzegovina as a semi-protectorate?
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28.1. The difficult path to change of power 28.2. Tuđman and the HDZ 28.3. The opposition and the alternatives
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29.1. Perceptions and politics of the European states 29.2. Relaunch of classic power politics in the Balkans? 29.3. American and European Politics in Contrast
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Although the Russian army has suffered a series of defeats in Ukraine, the Putin regime does not feel defeated and its stability is not threatened. The ability to control the internal situation allows the Russian authorities to wage war with Ukraine for years to come in order to achieve the assumed strategic goals of subordinating Ukraine and enforcing a buffer zone on the territory of some NATO countries. This requires Western countries to take a long-term approach to deterring the Russian threat and supporting Ukraine’s ability to regain control over lost territory.
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Throughout its 25 years of existence, the Arctic Council has contributed heavily to preserving the Arctic as a zone of peace. Nowadays, changes in political realities present more complex challenges. The Council wants to continue tackling environmental problems while deescalating the growing power and military competition between China, Russia, and the United States, which may spread to the Arctic. However, balancing the Council’s mandated role of regional cooperation with security management risks losing the clear focus on the pressing climate emergency and overlooking the military nexus. If this happens, the tense relations in the region may further escalate.
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Last year’s COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, was a major challenge for EU climate diplomacy, which, despite the unfavourable external circumstances (e.g., the war in Ukraine and economic turbulence), contributed to the conference’s positive outcome. The EU, as a global leader in the fight against climate change, seeks to increase its influence with external partners. Many of them would not have joined the climate action without its support. In addition to participation in policy dialogue, among the EU’s main tools of influence are various types of incentives and forms of support, as well as leverage measures such as political conditionality. However, the effectiveness of these tools is still being refined.
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The first decade of Kim Jong Un’s rule was aimed at consolidating his power and ensuring the survival of the regime. Kim’s policy led to the development of North Korea’s military potential and deepened the country’s dependence on China. The North’s continued strengthening of nuclear deterrence and diversification of its missile arsenal will pose an increasingly serious challenge to the security of the U.S. and its allies in Asia, and to the non-proliferation regime. Despite attempts at reform, North Korea is still struggling with serious economic problems, which will be the main challenge for the Kim regime in the coming years.
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The COVID-19 pandemic and the crises caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine represent the most serious test for the Franco-German tandem since the creation of the EU. Leaders in both countries share a conviction of the necessity of mutual cooperation, further increased by the compromise worked out around the EU’s post-pandemic recovery plan. However, the catalogue of divergences between France and Germany is long and includes crucial issues such as the shape of the common market, energy policy, and defence. A possible permanent loosening of the tandem may benefit Poland, but only on the condition that the country maintains constructive relations with France and Germany, cooperates well with EU institutions, and correctly diagnoses Polish interests in the areas of the Franco-German dispute.
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The overall importance of the United States for Poland cannot be overstated. The defence dimension remains paramount, but there is also an increasingly visible economic and energy aspect to the relationship that is becoming more important as both sides deepen their trade relations. While controversies around Nord Stream 2 have had a negative impact, the overall positive dynamics in bilateral relations can be continued under the Biden administration. Given the broad overlap of the U.S. administration’s and Poland’s foreign and security policy goals, and their similar assessment of the challenges, there is potential for the partners to quickly bounce back from the turbulence of the first half of 2021.
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The reform plan for Russian armed forces presented by the authorities hints that Russia is preparing for a long-term armed conflict with Ukraine. Although there are many indications that it will have problems implementing all the assumptions of the reform plan, its goal is clearly to rebuild and strengthen the army in a way that will challenge NATO. For Alliance members, this will require a plan for multi-stage support of Ukraine through the Ramstein format and others, but also NATO’s further adaptation to the Russian threat.
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