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The U.S.-China rivalry and the development of North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities are leading South Korea to seek greater security independence. Despite the alliance with the U.S., South Korea does not fully support its ally in its competition with China. Instead, South Korea is developing conventional military capabilities to deter North Korea and strengthen its position in the region. The deteriorating security environment in East Asia and doubts about the credibility of U.S. security commitments may intensify the discussion on the acquisition of nuclear weapons in South Korea. Despite the different regional specificity, some of the security dilemmas resulting from the U.S.-China rivalry are common to South Korea and the European allies of the U.S.
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Russia’s revisionist policy, which culminated in the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, tore down the foundations of the Euro-Atlantic security system based on the international law and principles listed in the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. Despite Russia’s repeated violations of its commitments, NATO has been unilaterally honouring the Act, including by not stationing permanent substantial combat forces in the eastern part of the Alliance. However, given the current security situation, NATO should declare that it does not feel bound by the self-imposed military limitations of the Act. Honouring them is of no benefit in relations with Russia, impedes a response to the Russian threat, and creates unnecessary risk.
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The post-2019 economic crisis in Lebanon has accelerated emigration to several Sub-Saharan African states, particularly Côte d'Ivoire. The popularity of African destinations is prompted by the relative ease of access, established diaspora centres, and growing demand in numerous trades. The Lebanese add to the Syrian and Yemeni refugees, many of whom have settled on the Horn of Africa permanently, in the newest episode of Middle Eastern emigration to the continent. It has generated positive effects on local economies, although it adds to fears of extending the fallout of Middle Eastern conflicts onto host countries. The EU could apply some of the policies developed by the African states towards the Syrians or Yemenis in its direct neighbourhood.
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The United Kingdom remains one of the leaders in climate change policy in Europe and globally. The green transformation reached consensus among all major political parties and enjoys broad public support. Despite these favourable conditions, the public debate related to it has been revealing strong tensions over the costs, scale, and pace. In recent months, this debate has significantly deepened in the security dimension. Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine has placed the issues of control over critical infrastructure, self-sufficiency, and security of energy supplies at the centre of the British climate debate. For these reasons, the UK is an interesting case study highlighting the challenges for the climate transformation in Poland.
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July marks the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the Communist Party of China (CPC), which has ruled the People’s Republic of China since 1949. The celebrations are the most important element of this year’s CPC anniversary, and are aimed at underscoring the legitimacy of its power. The authorities emphasise the party’s contribution to maintaining China’s territorial integrity and strengthening its international position, as well as the economic growth and prosperity of its citizens. Of course, not all the goals have been achieved and the results are often contrary to the actions of the CCP.
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The return of the Polish contingent to the UNIFIL peacekeeping mission in Lebanon after a 10-year break will have a positive impact on Poland’s image at the UN and confirms its commitment to global security. While cooperation between UNIFIL troops and the Lebanese Army (LAF) is progressing nearly flawlessly, Lebanon is facing a financial crisis that has led to a sharp decline in the LAF’s logistical and operational capabilities. Supporting the LAF will be important in the further fight against paramilitary organisations in UNIFIL-controlled areas, including the dominant Hezbollah, which also spreads Russian propaganda about the war in Ukraine.
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The U.S. support for Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 so far has significantly reduced the American stockpiles of equipment and armaments prepared in the event of, among other things, a direct war with Russia or China. To fill the gaps, it is necessary, above all, to quickly increase the production capacity of the U.S. defence industry, as well as the industrial potential of American allies. Failure to implement the changes now could undermine the U.S. ability to provide long-term assistance to Ukraine while also supporting its allies in Asia and Europe, and consequently weaken the conventional deterrence of Russia and China.
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Countering hybrid threats is one of the main dimensions of the EU Strategic Compass, guiding the development of the Union’s capabilities in the field of international security. The document calls for combining the tools developed since 2016 to combat hybrid methods into an “EU Hybrid Toolbox”, which will also include new instruments and modes of action. While the primary responsibility for countering hostile hybrid activity will continue to lie with the Member States, the EU will have greater capacity to support and coordinate prevention and response. The EU approach focuses on non-military aspects and developing military capabilities to respond to hybrid crises, which increases the importance of cooperation with NATO in this area.
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Israel is firmly building its image as a state committed to climate protection. However, the authorities and society began to adapt to global trends in this field only in the last decade. Despite newly launched exploitation of gas deposits and technological potential, structural problems continue to be a challenge for Israel and are aggravated by high demographic growth, growing resources consumption, and inconsistent government policies. Energy and climate are also increasingly influencing Israeli foreign policy, which is visible in, for example, its contribution to the regional gas market and export of green technologies.
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Shaken by the experience of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine, the EU has adopted a series of legal acts to reduce dependence on authoritarian powers, create new instruments to defend against unfair competition, and facilitate the modernisation of the industrial sector. The smooth implementation of the green and digital transitions will be crucial to the success of these measures, but it requires additional financial resources. Furthermore, the drive to increase self-sufficiency in strategic sectors and build a low-carbon, sustainable economy is difficult to reconcile with a liberal approach focused on deregulation and short-term profit maximisation.
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The stationing of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus, now confirmed, and the recently announced redeployment of some Wagner Group fighters to this country is a powerful signal that what NATO is about to face to its East will be an even more multifaceted threat than before. By turning Belarus into a de facto vassal, Russia gains a whole set of new options of a hybrid, conventional and nuclear character for controlled escalation against NATO in the future. This poses a challenge for the Alliance’s approach to defence and deterrence, including in the nuclear dimension, as well as resilience-building efforts.
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The countries of the Three Seas Initiative (TSI) recognise it as a permanent platform for regional cooperation. Their authorities’ promotion of it in most cases has increased, although the visibility of the initiative may have decreased since the change of president in Croatia, which with Poland is a co-creator of the TSI. The promotion of the initiative has so far been independent of the political orientation of the members’ presidents and governments but have differed both in intensity and in preferred areas of cooperation. At the same time, the promotional activities have translated into only the minimum financial commitment from most of the member countries, which does not ensure a sufficient base to sustain the initiative or implement joint projects.
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For years, the European Union has been trying to create tools to conduct external climate policy, but only with the development of the European Green Deal have these activities intensified. Despite significant progress in building the EU’s image as a leader in the field of combating climate change, as demonstrated by the recent COP27 summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, the creation of EU climate diplomacy is not yet complete. Its effectiveness is undermined by, among others, internal factors such as the complex institutional structure and conflicts of interest between Member States stemming from the challenges posed by the energy crisis. EU climate diplomacy could be internally strengthened with the appointment by the Council of an EU Special Representative for Climate.
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Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal poses again the risk of destabilising the global food market. However, it is a reflection of a much larger problem represented by the Russian year-and-a-half-long blockade of the Black Sea, which has allowed it to gradually weaken Ukraine and drive up the cost of providing it with assistance from foreign partners. The international community should not pursue reactivation of the grain deal, which granted Russia de facto control of Ukrainian exports, and instead, the common objective should be to finally break the Russian blockade and effectively secure maritime trade across the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports.
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Irregular migration from Africa through the Sahel towards Europe has increased significantly in the last decade. Migration and migration management is no longer perceived as just a humanitarian issue but has become an integral part of the European Union’s foreign and security policy. Although the EU has used its power of a large donor to influence local migration management in the Sahel, it will have to calibrate its policy in such a way that it better responds to the needs of the local populations and does not create “invisible walls”.
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The UN Secretariat and other United Nations entities are conducting their procurement procedures without excluding suppliers from Russia despite its full-scale aggression against Ukraine. States condemning the invasion are seeking to restrict Russian companies from obtaining contracts. It is currently possible by removing individual suppliers from the UN procurement system. However, the organisation lacks a systemic solution allowing the exclusion of vendors from a particular state, even one blatantly violating international law.
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The EU treats Egypt as an important partner in countering irregular migration. Development aid is one instrument used. However, funds allocated to addressing the root causes of migration are not sufficient to effect changes in Egyptian migration policy. The observed decline of migration to the EU is, however, not a result of the aid given to Egypt but of tightened control over its borders for its own purposes. Measures to strengthen the Egyptian economy and protect the rights of migrants are necessary, but more important are the political stabilisation of the region and increasing development assistance for Horn of Africa countries.
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Norway transitioned from a net emigration to a net immigration country decades earlier than Poland. However, as Poland rapidly undergoes this transformation, it seems particularly important to draw on the experience of other countries in shaping national migration policy that enables benefits both for the host country and immigrants. In this context, Norway may be seen as a source of inspiration in developing a national reception and integration system for migrants, as well as in programming development assistance. As a Schengen and European Economic Area member, Norway is also a partner in implementing EU migration policy.
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