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Although the Russian army has suffered a series of defeats in Ukraine, the Putin regime does not feel defeated and its stability is not threatened. The ability to control the internal situation allows the Russian authorities to wage war with Ukraine for years to come in order to achieve the assumed strategic goals of subordinating Ukraine and enforcing a buffer zone on the territory of some NATO countries. This requires Western countries to take a long-term approach to deterring the Russian threat and supporting Ukraine’s ability to regain control over lost territory.
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Throughout its 25 years of existence, the Arctic Council has contributed heavily to preserving the Arctic as a zone of peace. Nowadays, changes in political realities present more complex challenges. The Council wants to continue tackling environmental problems while deescalating the growing power and military competition between China, Russia, and the United States, which may spread to the Arctic. However, balancing the Council’s mandated role of regional cooperation with security management risks losing the clear focus on the pressing climate emergency and overlooking the military nexus. If this happens, the tense relations in the region may further escalate.
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The high-tech sector is the most important element of the Israeli economy. It is the main source of foreign investment in Israel and generates more than half of the country’s exports. The sector’s development is driven by the growing global demand for digital products and services, partly the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and for new solutions in areas like artificial intelligence (AI) or climate protection. Israel uses its technological potential to strengthen its international position and as a tool in relations with other states. At the same time, Israel’s high-tech sector model strengthens social inequalities, benefitting only a part of the citizenry.
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Last year’s COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, was a major challenge for EU climate diplomacy, which, despite the unfavourable external circumstances (e.g., the war in Ukraine and economic turbulence), contributed to the conference’s positive outcome. The EU, as a global leader in the fight against climate change, seeks to increase its influence with external partners. Many of them would not have joined the climate action without its support. In addition to participation in policy dialogue, among the EU’s main tools of influence are various types of incentives and forms of support, as well as leverage measures such as political conditionality. However, the effectiveness of these tools is still being refined.
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The U.S.-China rivalry and the development of North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities are leading South Korea to seek greater security independence. Despite the alliance with the U.S., South Korea does not fully support its ally in its competition with China. Instead, South Korea is developing conventional military capabilities to deter North Korea and strengthen its position in the region. The deteriorating security environment in East Asia and doubts about the credibility of U.S. security commitments may intensify the discussion on the acquisition of nuclear weapons in South Korea. Despite the different regional specificity, some of the security dilemmas resulting from the U.S.-China rivalry are common to South Korea and the European allies of the U.S.
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The first decade of Kim Jong Un’s rule was aimed at consolidating his power and ensuring the survival of the regime. Kim’s policy led to the development of North Korea’s military potential and deepened the country’s dependence on China. The North’s continued strengthening of nuclear deterrence and diversification of its missile arsenal will pose an increasingly serious challenge to the security of the U.S. and its allies in Asia, and to the non-proliferation regime. Despite attempts at reform, North Korea is still struggling with serious economic problems, which will be the main challenge for the Kim regime in the coming years.
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The COVID-19 pandemic and the crises caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine represent the most serious test for the Franco-German tandem since the creation of the EU. Leaders in both countries share a conviction of the necessity of mutual cooperation, further increased by the compromise worked out around the EU’s post-pandemic recovery plan. However, the catalogue of divergences between France and Germany is long and includes crucial issues such as the shape of the common market, energy policy, and defence. A possible permanent loosening of the tandem may benefit Poland, but only on the condition that the country maintains constructive relations with France and Germany, cooperates well with EU institutions, and correctly diagnoses Polish interests in the areas of the Franco-German dispute.
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The overall importance of the United States for Poland cannot be overstated. The defence dimension remains paramount, but there is also an increasingly visible economic and energy aspect to the relationship that is becoming more important as both sides deepen their trade relations. While controversies around Nord Stream 2 have had a negative impact, the overall positive dynamics in bilateral relations can be continued under the Biden administration. Given the broad overlap of the U.S. administration’s and Poland’s foreign and security policy goals, and their similar assessment of the challenges, there is potential for the partners to quickly bounce back from the turbulence of the first half of 2021.
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Russia’s revisionist policy, which culminated in the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, tore down the foundations of the Euro-Atlantic security system based on the international law and principles listed in the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. Despite Russia’s repeated violations of its commitments, NATO has been unilaterally honouring the Act, including by not stationing permanent substantial combat forces in the eastern part of the Alliance. However, given the current security situation, NATO should declare that it does not feel bound by the self-imposed military limitations of the Act. Honouring them is of no benefit in relations with Russia, impedes a response to the Russian threat, and creates unnecessary risk.
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The reform plan for Russian armed forces presented by the authorities hints that Russia is preparing for a long-term armed conflict with Ukraine. Although there are many indications that it will have problems implementing all the assumptions of the reform plan, its goal is clearly to rebuild and strengthen the army in a way that will challenge NATO. For Alliance members, this will require a plan for multi-stage support of Ukraine through the Ramstein format and others, but also NATO’s further adaptation to the Russian threat.
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The post-2019 economic crisis in Lebanon has accelerated emigration to several Sub-Saharan African states, particularly Côte d'Ivoire. The popularity of African destinations is prompted by the relative ease of access, established diaspora centres, and growing demand in numerous trades. The Lebanese add to the Syrian and Yemeni refugees, many of whom have settled on the Horn of Africa permanently, in the newest episode of Middle Eastern emigration to the continent. It has generated positive effects on local economies, although it adds to fears of extending the fallout of Middle Eastern conflicts onto host countries. The EU could apply some of the policies developed by the African states towards the Syrians or Yemenis in its direct neighbourhood.
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The U.S. support for Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 so far has significantly reduced the American stockpiles of equipment and armaments prepared in the event of, among other things, a direct war with Russia or China. To fill the gaps, it is necessary, above all, to quickly increase the production capacity of the U.S. defence industry, as well as the industrial potential of American allies. Failure to implement the changes now could undermine the U.S. ability to provide long-term assistance to Ukraine while also supporting its allies in Asia and Europe, and consequently weaken the conventional deterrence of Russia and China.
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Israel is firmly building its image as a state committed to climate protection. However, the authorities and society began to adapt to global trends in this field only in the last decade. Despite newly launched exploitation of gas deposits and technological potential, structural problems continue to be a challenge for Israel and are aggravated by high demographic growth, growing resources consumption, and inconsistent government policies. Energy and climate are also increasingly influencing Israeli foreign policy, which is visible in, for example, its contribution to the regional gas market and export of green technologies.
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The countries of the Three Seas Initiative (TSI) recognise it as a permanent platform for regional cooperation. Their authorities’ promotion of it in most cases has increased, although the visibility of the initiative may have decreased since the change of president in Croatia, which with Poland is a co-creator of the TSI. The promotion of the initiative has so far been independent of the political orientation of the members’ presidents and governments but have differed both in intensity and in preferred areas of cooperation. At the same time, the promotional activities have translated into only the minimum financial commitment from most of the member countries, which does not ensure a sufficient base to sustain the initiative or implement joint projects.
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Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal poses again the risk of destabilising the global food market. However, it is a reflection of a much larger problem represented by the Russian year-and-a-half-long blockade of the Black Sea, which has allowed it to gradually weaken Ukraine and drive up the cost of providing it with assistance from foreign partners. The international community should not pursue reactivation of the grain deal, which granted Russia de facto control of Ukrainian exports, and instead, the common objective should be to finally break the Russian blockade and effectively secure maritime trade across the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports.
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The UN Secretariat and other United Nations entities are conducting their procurement procedures without excluding suppliers from Russia despite its full-scale aggression against Ukraine. States condemning the invasion are seeking to restrict Russian companies from obtaining contracts. It is currently possible by removing individual suppliers from the UN procurement system. However, the organisation lacks a systemic solution allowing the exclusion of vendors from a particular state, even one blatantly violating international law.
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Norway transitioned from a net emigration to a net immigration country decades earlier than Poland. However, as Poland rapidly undergoes this transformation, it seems particularly important to draw on the experience of other countries in shaping national migration policy that enables benefits both for the host country and immigrants. In this context, Norway may be seen as a source of inspiration in developing a national reception and integration system for migrants, as well as in programming development assistance. As a Schengen and European Economic Area member, Norway is also a partner in implementing EU migration policy.
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