Balkan Defence Monitor 2022

Balkan Defence Monitor 2022

Author(s): Luka Šterić,Maja Bjeloš,Marija Ignjatijević / Language(s): English

Keywords: defence; military; multinational operations; defence sectors

The first iteration of the Balkan Defence Monitor entails detailed information on defence expenditure in the region, military exercises with international partners, foreign donations, participation in multinational operations and women in defence systems. The report covers data for Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia. The idea behind the Balkan Defence Monitor is to launch an independent, comprehensive and credible source of information on defence sectors, policies and related issues in the Balkans. The main aim is to try to tackle the lack of information in this field and provide a fact-based alternative to current narratives in the Balkans region.

Prospects for changes in the composition of the European institutions after the 2024 elections

Prospects for changes in the composition of the European institutions after the 2024 elections

Author(s): Tomasz Zając / Language(s): English

This policy brief is based on interviews conducted in Brussels, Belgium between the 4 and the 8 of September 2023. 11 interviewees participated in the research, including officials from the European Commission (EC), the European Parliament (EP), analysts from various think tanks, an assistant to a Member of the European Parliament (MEP) and an MEP. The discussion focused on the prospects for changes in composition of the European institutions after the 2024 elections. To ensure honesty and openness during the interviews, the Chatham House rule was applied, hence, the identity of the interviewees is not revealed. Combining expert interviews with media sources and think-tank analyses, allowed for method triangulation and enriched the paper by providing a more in-depth discussion of the described matters.

Were Czech Industrial Policy Interests reflected in EU 2024-2029 strategic Agenda Discussions?

Were Czech Industrial Policy Interests reflected in EU 2024-2029 strategic Agenda Discussions?

Author(s): Klára Votavová / Language(s): English

Like other EU Member States, Czechia enters the new era of a more proactive, sectoral industrial policy as a country with specific interests. The aim of this policy brief is to outline how these interests were reflected in debates leading up to the adoption of 2024-2029 strategic agenda. After defining the Czech interests regarding the industrial policy, the brief will review the industrial policy commitments made in the EUCO conclusions leading to the SA adoption, and the industrial chapters of the Letta Report. Subsequently, the brief will discuss to what extend Czech interests were reflected in these documents.

Preparing for EU35+: The View from Central Europe

Preparing for EU35+: The View from Central Europe

Author(s): Jolana Gubalová,Vladislava Gubalová / Language(s): English

With future enlargement of the European Union (EU) finally becoming a plausible reality, the Visegrad Four countries (V4) have a unique opportunity to step up as leaders in the ‘EU’s most successful foreign policy tool.’ However, taking on such responsibility will necessitate significant shift in evaluating the forthcoming processes and their short-, medium- and longterm consequences (enlargement and internal reform), forging reasonable and benefiting negotiation strategy and ability to communicate strategically upcoming gains from enlargement and cost of non-enlargement. Are the Central European countries prepared? In May 2024, several Central European countries, celebrated twenty years since their own accession to the EU. No longer ‘new members’, such anniversary calls for careful evaluation of the tenure so far. And, with future enlargement back on the Agenda, for the first time the V4 countries are pressed to look at the upcoming process through the lens of wellestablished member states.

Winning the Race for AI without picking the Winners: How the EU can use Industrial Policy to unlock Competition and spur AI Innovation

Winning the Race for AI without picking the Winners: How the EU can use Industrial Policy to unlock Competition and spur AI Innovation

Author(s): Silke Maes / Language(s): English

As the European Union enters a new mandate, its leaders have set three top priorities for the next five years: raise productivity, enhance competitiveness, and bolster economic security. Each of these goals hinges on Europe’s ability to harness and develop digital technologies. Yet, so far, the digital transition has been too slow,1 leaving the EU trailing the US and China in the global tech race.

How to pay for the Green Transition? An Outlook on future EU financial instruments

Jak zaplatit zelenou transformaci? Výhled budoucích finančních nástrojů EU

Author(s): Filip Křenek,Tomáš Jungwirth Březovsky / Language(s): Czech

From the statements of leading European political leaders, it might seem that the current emphasis on climate policy and decarbonization will be replaced in the coming years by an emphasis on industry and competitiveness. But Europe's ability to compete on the global stage, especially with the United States and China, will inevitably be linked precisely to clean industry and green technologies. The energy crisis has shown the need for an accelerated transition to cheap and emission-free energy sources. Research, development and production of clean technologies are the clear economic drivers of the 21st century. And the costs of climate change are gradually increasing, while Europe is warming faster than any other continent. Competitiveness, industry and climate policies must therefore go hand in hand as one of Europe's main priorities.

Unveiling the Impact of EU Climate Adaptation Strategy on Safeguarding the Rights of the Most Vulnerable in the Czech Republic

Unveiling the Impact of EU Climate Adaptation Strategy on Safeguarding the Rights of the Most Vulnerable in the Czech Republic

Author(s): Elif Naz Němec / Language(s): English

The European Union (EU) has been implementing an ambitious agenda under the European Green Deal. Sustainable development and climate action have been prioritized as per the ambitious goals covered in the European Green Deal. However, as underscored by Ursula von der Leyen, the focus for the strategic priorities has recently shifted towards economic security, competitiveness, and defence. 1 Yet, the climate crisis constitutes an unprecedented security threat for modern humanity and the development of resilience towards climate change should still serve as a precondition for the fulfilment of those strategic priorities.

Will the Fund fund enough? A conversation with stakeholders on the suitable allocation of the Social Climate Fund and expected impacts of the ETS2 on transport poverty in EU Member States

Will the Fund fund enough? A conversation with stakeholders on the suitable allocation of the Social Climate Fund and expected impacts of the ETS2 on transport poverty in EU Member States

Author(s): Rebeka Hengalová / Language(s): English

In this policy brief, I will outline the upcoming Emission Trading System (ETS) extension to road transport and heating of households (ETS2) as this policy is directly tied to the disbursement of the Social Climate Fund (SCF or Fund). Next, I will outline the presumed impact of the ETS2 on the prices of heating and transport fuels, along with the mechanism of the Fund's allocation and suitable measures and investments financed by the Fund. Moreover, I will supplement the data with the opinions of interviewed policymakers and experts from European institutions, think tanks, Czech state representatives, and universities that helped contextualise the reality in which the SCF is to be implemented. In conclusion, I will summarise the current status quo and provide recommendations for the upcoming years of transposition, implementation and successful usage of the ETS2 and SCF policies.

Impacts of Ukraine's accession on the EU and its Member States

Impacts of Ukraine's accession on the EU and its Member States

Author(s): Anton Bendarzsevszkij / Language(s): English

Ukraine has been trying to become part of the European Union since the Orange Revolution in 2004, while European decision-makers lacked the political will to continue the enlargement, and the process has been stagnating for many years. All this changed suddenly after the Russian aggression in 2022, after which the accession process accelerated, but now it turned to another extreme: the statements on Ukraine’s quick EU accession became too unrealistic, creating false hopes. In fact, in the current geopolitical circumstances, full of crises and moving towards blocisation, the EU needs Kiev as much as Ukraine needs the EU. However, this would require a number of other conditions to be met, including internal EU reform, question of money and EU funding, and the end of the war on Ukrainian soil.

Transformation of Ukrainian transport system and its perspectives for the EU integration

Transformation of Ukrainian transport system and its perspectives for the EU integration

Author(s): Sandra Baniak / Language(s): English

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has led to significant changes in the Ukrainian transport sector due to disruptions in supply chains, cargo flows, and damage of the country’s infrastructure. The Ukrainian transport system has undergone significant transformations. The country's borders with Russia and Belarus and its airspace have been closed. In the first months of the full-scale war, the temporary blockage on the operation of Black Sea ports forced Ukraine to develop land transport corridors to the EU countries and neighboring Moldova to enable both export and import of goods needed for the economy. Despite the ongoing war, Ukraine has accelerated a long-planned reform of the country's transport system to adapt its infrastructure to the EU standards and integrate it with the European transport network. Ukraine, as well as other countries like Belarus, Moldova and the Baltic states, inherited broad-gauge infrastructure (1520 mm) from the USSR. For economic and security reasons and symbolic connection with European transport infrastructure, the construction of standard-gauge railways (1435 mm) remains a high priority for the country. In the recent revision of the TEN-T network, four corridors were extended to Ukraine. In addition, since 2023, Ukraine can apply for funds for transport infrastructure projects under the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) Transport instrument, which shows the highest priority given to transport connectivity by the European Commission (EC). One of the main challenges in the context of Ukraine's European integration process is how to fully transform the local transport sector, link it to the EU transport infrastructure and adapt it to the EU standards.

A Paper Tiger or a Game-Changing Project: European Defence Industrial Strategy and Views from Central Europe

A Paper Tiger or a Game-Changing Project: European Defence Industrial Strategy and Views from Central Europe

Author(s): Timotej Kováčik / Language(s): English

This paper deals with the topical issue of the first-ever European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS), which was introduced by the European Commission and the High Representative/Vice-President for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (HR/VP) in March 2024. The strategy aims to increase European defence industrial readiness, encourage Member States to invest in the European defence industry, and reinforce joint European defence procurement and ownership. EU Member States from Central Europe have played a crucial role in supporting Ukraine after the start of the Russian unprovoked and illegal full-scale invasion in February 2022. They also stressed the need to focus the EU's efforts on new initiatives in the field of defence and the defence industry, such as the Act in Support of Ammunition Production or enhancing the European Defence Fund. The main objective of this study is to identify how Central European countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) and their representatives (state officials, Members of Parliament, Members of the European Parliament) perceive EDIS and what priorities they seek to pursue during the implementation of the strategy to use its full potential for their defence industries and cooperation among Member States. Furthermore, the paper discusses the preparatory phase of the strategy from the perspective of the Central European Member States and the European Commission. It also explains what Member States from Central Europe expect from the newly appointed Commissioner for Defence and Space. In order to obtain data, the author conducted interviews with relevant stakeholders such as politicians, academics, diplomats and experts from EU institutions and leading European think-tanks.

Elevating EU-NATO Synergy for Enhanced European Defence

Elevating EU-NATO Synergy for Enhanced European Defence

Author(s): Federica Mangiameli / Language(s): English

The latest appeals of Pete Hegseth – newly appointed US Secretary of Defence – to “European allies to step into the arena and take ownership of conventional security on the continent” represent a renewed clear call to Europe that should not go unheard. Against this backdrop, the EU can be instrumental in achieving this goal without necessarily becoming a mere cashbox to fund the Allies’ build-up of capabilities. The EU has the tools to concert and coordinate the efforts of the European Allies whilst incentivising its Member States that are not part of the Alliance to invest more in defence. Both organisations can jointly work in a common framework created with a shared purpose: increasing readiness and preparedness to counter external threats. From this perspective, the aim of this policy brief is to answer the question, “How to elevate the EU-NATO cooperation to strengthen European defence?”. The content of this paper is a result of research and interviews with officials from both the EU and NATO, as well as distinguished experts in the field of security and defence.

How to make the EU ready for Enlargement: Member States’ perspective

How to make the EU ready for Enlargement: Member States’ perspective

Author(s): Marta Szpala / Language(s): English

The credibility of the full-fledged membership promise for the Western Balkan countries has been significantly weakened in the past years, and the current debates on the gradual integration and the idea of concentric circles of integration rather enhance than dispel doubts regarding the outcome of the process desired by member states – full-fledged membership, accession to the Single Market only, or maybe some kind of deeper cooperation based on sectoral integration. The EU’s internal debate on enlargement has become in-ward looking and focused predominantly on the absorption capacity and necessary internal adjustment of the EU. Moreover, this debate omits the main challenge – how to make aspiring countries enlargement ready. Currently, none of them is and probably will not be ready in the foreseeable future, as enlargement policy lost its credibility and effectiveness, especially in the most crucial area of democratic governance. The Freedom House Nations in Transit reports reveal that the democratic institutions are still weak in most of the countries rated as partly free. Since 2017, only one recorded some improvements (Kosovo), Serbia's situation significantly deteriorated and in the case of the others, scores have not changed.

After October 7: EU Policy Towards the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict in 2023-2024

After October 7: EU Policy Towards the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict in 2023-2024

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Hamas; October 7; Tererorism;

The purpose of this text is to analyse the EU policy towards Israel's war with Hamas, its dynamics, and the changes it has undergone since October 7, 2023. The starting point is an analysis of the EU’s approach in the years leading up to the crisis. Further, selected actions, changes and processes undertaken by the EU institutions at the Union level will be presented. The conclusion is an assessment of the policy, its effects and an approximation of its prospects, especially in the context of Donald Trump's second presidency. The analysis builds on desk research and interviews conducted in September 2024 with representatives of the EU institutions at various levels, diplomats, and experts on the region and EU policy towards MENA.1 Due to space limitations, the article focuses primarily on the institutional dimension of the EU level, addressing member states' actions at the bilateral level to a lesser extent. The timeframe covered in the analysis is concluded by the start of the mandate of the new European Commission on December 1, 2024.

The Role of the European Union’s Raw Materials Diplomacy in the Green Transition

The Role of the European Union’s Raw Materials Diplomacy in the Green Transition

Author(s): Gábor Papp / Language(s): English

Even though the question of energy and supply security has global implications and is being discussed globally, Europe was particularly affected by these aforementioned events. This is because of, on the one hand, its historical and deep dependence on Russian fossil fuels and, on the other hand, the lack of many raw materials in its own soil. Within a month after the breakout of the war, the heads of state or government of the EU member states came up with the Versailles Declaration in their informal meeting in March 2022. In this document, the green agenda and the security of energy supply have already been linked together. It stated that over the past few years, the European Union has set the target of climate neutrality by 2050, however, working on this goal has been challenged by how the current situation affects the security of energy supply.

The (un)desirable partner – analysis of the narrative on civil society as a tool to capture the state

The (un)desirable partner – analysis of the narrative on civil society as a tool to capture the state

Author(s): Srđan Hercigonja / Language(s): English

Keywords: Serbian Security Policy; State Capture

As stakeholders with corrective function in a state which holds itself democratic, civil society organizations and activists indicate the threats borne by captured state. Precisely for this, the way of the government’s and public institutions’ way of communicating towards the civil society has been identified as an important element to analyse – on the one hand, due to the government’s need for legitimacy on the international scale, there are so-called “positive narratives” about civil society as a guarantor of the rule of law and democracy in the country, and, on the other hand, “negative narratives” about civil society articulated through attacks and pressure exerted on the civil society, demonstrated by unfounded statements in form of discreditation of any criticism. Both “positive” and “negative” narratives have a direct impact on the relations between the civil society and institutions in Serbia, and the indirect consequences of the relations thus fashioned on the state capturing process could also be analysed.

There is No Democracy in Serbia, nor is it Desirable

There is No Democracy in Serbia, nor is it Desirable

Author(s): Srđan Hercigonja / Language(s): English

Keywords: Accountability; Activism; Serbian Security Policy; State Capture

Almost one third of the Serbian citizens feel that there is no democracy in the country, while half of them believe that it does exist, but that it experiences smaller or bigger problems. This opinion is shared mostly by young people and the population aged 30 to 39, as well as by citizens who live in Belgrade. The explanation for this view can be found in the citizens’ assessments that the main state decisions are made by the executive power, that politicians use power for the realisation of their personal interests, and that corruption – from either domestic or foreign sources – is the main driving force in the state. Consequently, almost two thirds of the population believes that politicians, organised in interest groups, abuse power for the sake of their own personal interests. They do this through the Government and the Parliament, the judiciary and the police, the state-owned enterprises and public companies that serve to manage significant public resources, and through the media as instruments that are used to legitimise the actions of politicians. These views of the citizens have been reflected also in the perception of corruption; they thus believe that political parties, the government, the judiciary, the police and the media are among the most corrupt actors in the country. In addition, 86% of the respondents believe that employment in public administration and state-owned enterprises can be gained only through corrupt mechanisms, i.e. bribery or political/family ties.

Development of resistance against small hydropower plants in Serbia

Development of resistance against small hydropower plants in Serbia

Author(s): Dina Đorđević / Language(s): English

Keywords: Activism; Serbian Security Policy; small hydropower plants; environmental revolt; climate change

In a new case study, Dina Djordjevic, a journalist of the Centre for Investigative Reporting, presents how local actions against small hydropower plants in Serbia have turned into a mass environmental revolt at the national level.For more than a decade now, small hydropower plants (SHPPs) are being erected en masse on Serbian mountain rivers and streams. Their encouragement is part of a wider story that revolves around the fight against climate change, and around attempts to reduce the production of energy by use of coal, thus increasing the production of electricity in a way that would be less harmful to nature and human health.

Legal Position of Human Rights Defenders in Serbia in Terms of Basic Human Rights – Freedom of Expression, Freedom of Assembly, the Right to Liberty and Security, and the Right to Association

Legal Position of Human Rights Defenders in Serbia in Terms of Basic Human Rights – Freedom of Expression, Freedom of Assembly, the Right to Liberty and Security, and the Right to Association

Author(s): Milena Vasić / Language(s): English

Keywords: Activism; Serbian Security Policy

This document aims to positively address the legal framework of four basic rights that are necessary for human rights defenders to be able to perform their activities, to point out problems in legislation, but also to present a real picture of the position of activists in Serbia who encounter direct or indirect violations of these rights on a daily basis.Freedom of expression, freedom of peaceful assembly, the right to liberty and security, and freedom of association are often inseparable rights when it comes to any form of activism. In this document, they were specifically addressed because it is precisely these rights that were violated by most of the recorded attacks and pressures suffered by human rights defenders. In its practice, the European Court of Human Rights frequently connects these four rights and emphasises their importance in a democratic society.

Security sector in a captured state: act two

Security sector in a captured state: act two

Author(s): Predrag Petrović,Jelena Pejić Nikić,Luka Šterić / Language(s): English

Keywords: Serbian Security Policy; State Capture

Due to the damage that state capture causes to the public interest, it is very important to investigate and closely monitor this process in the security sector of Serbia. The Belgrade Centre for Security Policy was the first organisation in the country to point out this negative process and the role that the security sector plays in it. It has conducted its first research on this topic, the findings of which can be found in a study entitled “Capturing the Security Sector of Serbia”. The study in front of you is a continuation of that research. In it, we monitored and documented further state capture and the role of security institutions in that negative process. The research covered the period from the beginning of 2020 to November 2021. It explained the political context of capturing the state, the security services, the police, the army and the Ministry of Defence, within which we analysed the capture of special-purpose [arms] industry and parliamentary oversight of the security sector. Considering the fact that actors who participate in state capture are trying to secure international support for their endeavor, and that they are also making use of the experiences of other captured states, we have analysed the foreign policy aspect of capturing the state, which is a novelty compared to earlier research.