The Cheonan incident and the escalation of tensions on the Korean peninsula

Incident Čchonan a zostření napětí na Korejském poloostrově

Author(s): Michal Vodrážka / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: Korea;

The following text was written in October 2010 for the lecture of the Association for International Issues Political, economic and strategic context of the Cheonan incident. In connection with the events of November 23 – i.e. the North Korean artillery shelling of the South Korean military base on Yongpyong Island – some of the conclusions he reaches become relevant again. This is mainly due to the fact that neither South Korea nor its American ally and protector can essentially respond militarily to North Korean provocations. This situation has persisted on the Korean Peninsula for several decades, and allows the DPRK to basically provoke or increase tensions in the area at any time, knowing that it will get away with essentially no consequences, aside from economic sanctions and diplomatic protests.

Bahrain: A proxy battle?

Bahrain: A proxy battle?

Author(s): Petra Kartalová / Language(s): English

Bahrain is a wealthy banking center and also an important American ally. U.S. 5th fleet is based here to ensure the flow of oil through the Hormuz Strait and to protect American interests in the region. Bahrain represents a crucial security interest for Saudi Arabia as well, given its geographical location across from the primary Saudi oil region. On the other hand, there is also considerable Iranian influence. Iran claimed Bahrain was an Iranian province in the past, but the Shah officially renounced the claim in 1971. However, today many Shia clerics in Bahrain have been trained in Iran and every now and then the issue of Iranian influence is raised. Put together, these aspects make Bahrain one of the most volatile countries in the Gulf and at the same time one of the most strategically important.

Ukraine’s European Choice and Characteristics of Ukrainian Society

Ukraine’s European Choice and Characteristics of Ukrainian Society

Author(s): Julia Ostanina-Olszewska / Language(s): English

This paper focuses on Ukrainian society’s perception of Ukraine’s role and position between the two centres of gravity - the European Union and Russia - and the direction of Ukraine’s development in the future. Attention is paid to personal priorities of Ukrainian people, their understanding and attitude towards its Western and Eastern neighbours. Further, the paper tackles the question to what extent the EU and Russia have an impact on Ukraine’s public opinion regarding the preferences each other’s another integration alternatives.

Turkish foreign policy and the 2011 elections: politics of (non)zero problems?

Turecká zahraniční politika a volby 2011: politika (ne)nulových problémů?

Author(s): Michal Thim / Language(s): Czech

The current foreign policy line, known as the "zero-problem policy," focuses primarily on Turkey's immediate neighbors and is strongly associated with its author, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu. However, the beginning of this year is marked by significant political upheavals in the Turkish neighborhood. The "zero-problem policy" is thus being subjected to the most significant test to date, and with it, Turkey's position as a significant regional actor. The aim of this study is to put these changes in the context of the upcoming parliamentary elections, which will take place on 12 June, and to provide an outlook on short-term developments in foreign policy in the post-election period.

Central Europe and the US: abandoned by the most loyal ally?

Střední Evropa a USA: opuštěna nejvěrnějším spojencem?

Author(s): Jiří Skoupý / Language(s): Czech

The following analysis aims to find the causes of this relatively dismal state and propose a constructive outlook for the future. The first part is therefore devoted to the key factors that played a role in the construction of the narrative of American "withdrawal" and "disinterest" in Central Europe. The second part then identifies the scope for a more realistic approach on the part of Central Europe to relations with the USA. Here it should be kept in mind that the intensity of the investigated narrative in the individual V4 countries is different. While the Czech Republic and Poland, thanks to their participation in the anti-missile defense project, have much more intense relations with the USA, Slovakia's degree of orientation towards the United States depends to a large extent on the composition of the government, and Hungary has been paying more and more attention to domestic issues in recent years. However, the underlying principles and causes of the investigated narrative are valid for all four countries.

Warsaw Summit and Reflection of the Eastern Partnership Program

Varšavský summit a reflexe programu Východního partnerství

Author(s): Vlaďka Votavová,Maria Staszkiewicz,Michal Mochťak / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: Eastern Partnership Program;

In this study, the authors deal with the development of the Eastern Partnership in the period after its official introduction in May 2009, the problems that are hidden behind the concept of the VP and, last but not least, the current trends that foreshadow the development of the negotiations at the Warsaw summit.

Security Situation in Somalia

Security Situation in Somalia

Author(s): Duman B.K Maulenov,Tomáš Maule / Language(s): English

Somalia, a failed state since 1991 is facing a further deterioration of security and humanitarian situation. According to many Somalia has just entered the worst period since 1991. People are fleeing in large numbers not only due to intense fighting but often due to lack of food and water. 120 000 people were displaced in last month alone. The Djibouti Process (signed June 9, 2008) to which international community put much hope does not seem to be delivering. The Transitional Federal Government (TFG) is not any stronger then it was a year ago. The creation of a wider coalition was supposed to generate momentum for successful conquest of the Somali territory.

Why Algerians don’t make Revolution?

Why Algerians don’t make Revolution?

Author(s): Karim Amellal / Language(s): English

After decades of political sclerosis and inertia, the Maghreb and the Middle East have brutally become a row of dominoes. In this part of the world that has been considered as culturally resistant to any democratic change for a long time, values of liberty and democracy are brandished like banners by young people yearning for a major change in their lives. Algeria didn’t escape the movement. In January 2011 several unrests took place in the country. Five people were killed and several hundred injured. Unemployed and poorly housed made up the bulk of protesters. All the ingredients were gathered for a revolution: a spark (rising prices of food), a sclerosis policy, an aging leader at the helm for over 10 years, a growing inequality despite oil wealth, corruption, etc. And yet the country stood relatively intact by the massive upheaval that was rocking all around in the Arab world. For a nation built with revolutions, it’s quite surprising. So let’s try to see why.

Prospects for the development of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (OSCE)

Perspektivy rozvoje Organizace smlouvy o kolektivní bezpečnosti (ODKB)

Author(s): Martin Laryš / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: OSCE;

This article presents an excursion into the development and future perspectives of the security organization, which was created on the basis of individual post-Soviet countries maintaining relatively correct relations with the Russian Federation. The organization has developed quite slowly and is considered by many experts to be ineffective, to say the least. Disappointment prevailed on the Russian side especially with regard to the Russo-Georgian war of August 2008 and its consequences, when not a single member country (except Russia, of course) recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In the same way, the inaction of the ODKB during last year's violence in Kyrgyzstan is considered a sign of inefficiency. Nevertheless, considering the certain potential that this organization hides within itself, ODKB deserves a deeper analysis.

From Al Jazeera to Libya Intervention: Qatar's Foreign Policy Concept

Od al-Džazíry k intervenci v Libyi: Koncepce zahraniční politiky Kataru

Author(s): Jan Kužvart / Language(s): Czech

Qatar, a small Sunni Arab state located between Saudi Arabia and Iran, has increasingly become the center of media and diplomatic attention in recent years and months, far exceeding the importance of its power position. Qatar's al-Jazeera television and, more recently, Qatar's involvement in the NATO operation in Libya show that this small oil monarchy has big regional and international ambitions, which it does not hesitate to realize. // Qatar's current position is the result of several years of efforts by the ruling Emir Ash-Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al Thani. Behind it stands a sophisticated concept of foreign policy, which this briefing paper analyzes. At the same time, it focuses on Qatari interests and goals, the principles on the basis of which they are achieved, and the means used to realize them. The effort to capture the dynamics, perspectives and possible pitfalls of Qatar's foreign policy in the future is not left out.

Visegrad Countries in the EU: Visions and Priorities

Visegrad Countries in the EU: Visions and Priorities

Author(s): Viera Knutelská / Language(s): English

Accession negotiations, with its ‘fregata approach’, made each of the Visegrad countries fight its own battles, and in a sense, compete against each other. First expectations of their position upon entering were that they will be forming ad hoc coalitions with all and any EU members on the bases of individual issues. However, later they learned that perpetual cooperation might indeed be helpful. Visegrad ambassadors to the EU and Visegrad leaders started meeting regularly, and although the cooperation is sometimes hampered by changes in governments etc., at some level, it always continues. Therefore, it is especially worthwhile to examine their common positions – as well as differences - on the current key issues

The "20-20-20" agenda: Towards a common energy market

Agenda „20-20-20“: na cestě k jednotnému energetickému trhu

Author(s): Petr Binhack / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: energy supply;

The following text offers an evaluation of the current state of European energy policy in relation to the goals set in the "20-20-20" agenda and provides an overview of the tasks facing the European Union today. // Energy policy has been one of the most discussed topics within the European Union in the last five years. Environmental and climate changes, as well as events in the area of security of electricity and natural gas supplies, have brought new impulses that deeply affect the energy sector of the EU and the Czech Republic as part of it. The European Union is entering a new era of energy relations. Import dependence has reached 50%, and with the depletion of domestic supplies, its further growth is certain. However, the importance of renewable energy sources is also growing, which is connected with the need to adapt the energy infrastructure to this method of electricity production.

The starting points of the debate on national priorities. Materials for the expert seminar. Interests of the Czech economy and the EU budget.

Východiska debaty o národních prioritách. Podklady k expertnímu semináři. Zájmy českého hospodářství a rozpočet EU

Author(s): Vít Dostál,Arnošt Marks / Language(s): Czech

At the same time as the process of discussing legislative proposals regarding the European budget, which is now taking place mainly in the working groups of the Council of the EU, discussions on the focus of national development priorities and the structure of operational programs continue. The result of this debate will be the determination of the areas to which resources from the cohesion policy in the Czech Republic will be directed from 2014.

Czech position in the EU – challenges for the years 2012+. Materials for the expert seminar Czech European policy in 2012 and tasks for 2013 within the project.

Česká pozice v EU – výzvy pro léta 2012+. Podklady k expertnímu semináři Česká evropská politika v roce 2012 a úkoly pro rok 2013 v rámci projektu.

Author(s): Arnošt Marks / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: economic crisis 2008; financial crisis 2008;

The current situation in the European Union is still defined by the deep financial and economic crisis of 2009, which turned into an economic and political crisis of the entire EU and the Eurozone. This still dramatically threatens Greece, possibly several other southern EU states. // At the EU level, a whole range of tools and steps have been developed over the last two to three years to try to solve the situation. Their character and essence are different. From simple or one-off measures such as simplification of financing from EU funds in Greece to considerations of far-reaching institutional changes, including in the form of amendments to the basic Treaties. // This background material briefly maps the key topics for the debate on the general positions of the Czech Republic in the coming months of 2012 and 2013.

Current issues of the Multiannual Financial Framework for the period 2014+. Materials for the expert seminar Multiannual financial framework 2014-2020: European Council without agreement and what next?

Aktuální otázky Víceletého finančního rámce pro období 2014+. Podklady k expertnímu semináři Víceletý finanční rámec 2014-2020: Evropská rada bez dohody a co dál? v rámci projektu

Author(s): Arnošt Marks / Language(s): Czech

The complicated negotiations on the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) are always a complex ritual of last-minute haggling in the spotlight. This year's negotiations on the content of the budget are unique in that they are dramatically overlaid with events associated with the financial and economic crisis, the eurozone crisis and other turbulent economic and political events in Europe. The list of issues that seem at first glance to be more important than the VFR is very long and controversial, as the debates within the Challenging the Czech Tales on European Policies project have shown.

Constitutionalization of the European Union – proposals from times of crisis?

Konstitucionalizace Evropské unie – návrhy z dob krize?

Author(s): Viera Knutelská / Language(s): Czech

The constitutionalization of the European Union is a gradual process of transformation of the European Union's normative and institutional foundations, which in practice takes the form of changes to primary law (founding treaties) and discussions about them. Over the past twenty years, the European Union has seen many of these changes; it went from Maastricht to the Treaty of Amsterdam and Nice to the failed Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe and the replacement Treaty of Lisbon, not to mention changes related to enlargement.

Czech national interests after the Fiscal Treaty?

České národní zájmy po Fiskální smlouvě?

Author(s): Vít Dostál,Arnošt Marks / Language(s): Czech

Since the signing of the Fiscal Treaty at the beginning of March, which was widely discussed in the Czech Republic, the European Union and its member states have undergone further dynamic development. There were presidential and parliamentary elections in France and double parliamentary elections in Greece. Spain and Cyprus got into economic difficulties. Further steps were discussed at the European level in the form of pro-growth measures, the banking union, and more generally formulated theses about the necessity of Europe began to come from Germany at a faster pace.

5 Alternatives, 1 Result - Scenarios for the further Development of the Conflict in Syria

5 alternativ, 1 výsledek – scénáře dalšího vývoje konfliktu v Sýrii

Author(s): Jan Kužvart / Language(s): Czech

The current developments in Syria would have been unimaginable before the events of the Arab Spring, but the main local ingredients of the conflict existed before. An amorphous combination of street gangs and religiously defined Shabiha militias have violently pursued the interests of members of the ruling clan on Syria's streets for years past. The social influence of Islamists in ostensibly secular Syria has also slowly grown as state institutions have been weakened by the corruption and cronyism of the ruling clique. The influence of the Islamists was tolerated by the regime to a certain extent in the interests of peace. It was not better even with the suppression of ethnic-religious sectarianism, although the Syrian regime under the guise of pan-Arabism boasted about it. In recent years, belonging to a religious sect as the primary identity of Syrians began to strengthen, although paradoxically, as a result of the development of communications and media, the awareness of a common Syrian national identity also grew.

Sharing post-communist transformational know-how: experiences from North Africa

Sdílení postkomunistického transformačního know-how: zkušenosti ze severní Afriky

Author(s): Zora Hesová / Language(s): Czech

While Egypt, Libya and Tunisia enter the process of political change, Europe is looking for ways to support their democratization. In the summer, the European Commission formulated a strategy aimed at assisting civil society, increasing the mobility of students and professionals and opening up markets. To these general efforts, Eastern European countries, which themselves have fresh memories of their own revolutions, have added another concrete and current strategy – the provision of their own transformative experience. The Czech Republic, in line with its foreign policy priorities, was also active last year in the field of supporting democratization processes in the southern Mediterranean. Since June 2011, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic has supported seven projects focused on the transfer of transformational experiences, primarily in Egypt, but also in Tunisia and Libya, which it wants to continue this year as well. The first conclusions about the meaningfulness and complications of this policy can be drawn from a series of seminars organized by the Association for International Affairs (AMO) with non-governmental organizations in Egypt.

Issues of Institutional Design in Post-Revolutionary Egypt

Problémy institucionálního designu v porevolučním Egyptě

Author(s): Tereza Jermanová / Language(s): Czech

The great success of the popular uprising at the beginning of 2011, the so-called revolution on January 25, was the ouster of the first man of Egypt's authoritarian regime, the long-time president Hosni Mubarak. The government of the country was then temporarily taken over by the army1, which promised to become the guarantor of the democratic transformation. Very soon, however, it became clear that the generals would primarily want to advance their own interests. The issue of military junta rule thus became the main topic of Egyptian political life.