Keywords: Polish-Ukrainian relations; Russian-Ukrainian conflict; Economic development;
Ukrainian-Polish affairs: challenges and opportunities
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Keywords: European integration; Visa-free regime; The Association Agreement;
Ukraine-EU Summit: What will save European integration of Ukrane?
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1. Political competition // 1.1. Positions of key political players // 1.2. Russian military threat as consolidation factor // 2. Economic situation // 2.1. Exchange rate // 2.2. State budget // 2.3. International aid // 3. State decisions // 3.1. HR policy
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1. Political competition // 1.1. “Praviy sektor” enters the game // 1.2. Vitali Klitschko displays civil position and loyalty to Maidan’s ideals // 1.3. Petro Poroshenko shows presidential ambitions // 1.4. Svoboda forms power vertical in its basic regions // 1.5. Batkivshchyna fails to launch election campaign brightly // 1.6. Party of regions will have primaries // 2. State decisions // 2.1. Combination of decentralization and centralization // 2.2. Need for macrostrategy in reforms // 2.3. Response to mistakes in HR policy
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1. State Decisions // 1.1. Decisions of War // 1.2. Decisions of Peace // 2. Economic Situation // 2.1. Macroeconomic Trends and Course of Actions by Government // 2.2. Macrofinancial Aid to Ukraine // 2.3. Banking Sector // 3. Political Competition // 3.1. “Kolo Doviry Maidanu” Becomes a New Political Player // 3.2. Policy of “Praviy Sektor” Requires Changes // 3.3. “Western Style” of Vitaliy Klitschko’s Campaign // 3.4. Reforms are Expected from “Batkivshchyna” and “Svoboda” // 3.5. Passivity of Party of Regions in the East Cuts their Chances
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1. State decisions // 1.1. Inaction leads to early resignations // 1.2. Need for dialogue between the Maidan and the government // 1.3. The regulatory framework needed // 2. Economic consequences of Crimea annexation // 2.1. Autonomous dependence // 2.2. Direct losses of Ukraine // 2.3. Indirect losses of Ukraine // 2.4. Expected government actions // 3. Political competition // 3.1. The Maidan will control the government // 3.2. “Right Sector” should look into the future, not the past // 3.3. Active parliamentary work of UDAR on Crimea // 3.4. Yulia Tymoshenko’s return to politics // 3.5. Existential crisis of the Party of Regions
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1. State decisions // 1.2. Anti-crisis package focuses on finances rather than economy // 1.3. Counteracting Russian expansion in Crimea // 2. Economic situation // 2.1. Anti-crisis package is a key to the IMF financing // 2.2. Amendments to the 2014 budget // 2.3. Government tax initiatives // 2.4. Assessment of the approved initiatives // 3. Political competition // 3.1. Synergy of Petro Poroshenko and Vitali Klitschko // 3.2. Regional fate of the Party of Regions // 3.3. Difficulties the Maidan representatives face // 3.4. Change in Tymoshenko’s rhetoric
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1. The Government policy // 1.1. The Achievements of the Yatseniuk Government // 1.2. First failures // 1.3. The Yatseniuk Government’s “homework assignments” // 2. Political competition // 2.1. The overly promising platform of Yulia Tymoshenko // 2.2. Poroshenko vs Tymoshenko: two leaders – one rhetoric // 2.3. Sergiy Tigipko strives for the Party of Regions’ heritage // 2.4. Blatantly pro-Russian position of Mykhailo Dobkin // 2.5. Medically political program of Olga Bogomolets // 2.6. Revolutionary Dmytro Yarosh
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1. The Government policy // 1.1. Insufficient fight against separatism in Donbas // 1.2. Parliamentary victories of the Government // 1.3. Ignoring the public could lead to a new Maidan // 2. Economic situation // 2.1. The NBU takes the situation on FX market under control // 2.2. Economic outcome of the Law on occupied territories // 2.3. The Government starts reverse gas supplies to Ukraine // 3. Political competition // 3.1. Poroshenko forms his team // 3.2. Vitali Klitschko can lose his party // 3.3. Dynamic start of Tymoshenko’s campaign // 3.4. Party of Regions slowly recovers from the Maidan
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1. The Government policy // 1.1. Destabilizing factor in the East // 1.2. The Government should not forget about the Crimea // 1.3. The practice of party quotas continues // 2. Economic situation // 2.1. Ukrainian banks leave Crimea // 2.2. From Crimea to the East // 2.3. Foreign trade: the EU concessions and trade war with Russia // 2.4. Trends of energy market // 3. Political competition // 3.1. Poroshenko remains favorite of the elections // 3.2. Defeating the separatism may give advantage to Tymoshenko // 3.3. The Party of Regions relies only on Donbas // 3.4. Alternatives to major political players
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1. The Government policy // 1.1. Managerial failures of the anti-terrorist operation // 1.2. The Government has not defined its information policy // 1.3. The importance of oligarchs’ position on fighting separatism // 2. Economic situation // 2.1. Deterioration of economic indicators // 2.2. Problems of banking sector // 2.3. Situation in the energy market // 3. Political competition // 3.1. Poroshenko’s desire to hold elections in one round // 3.2. Lost hopes of Yulia Tymoshenko // 3.3. Vitali Klitschko starts in Kyiv
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1. The Government Policy // 1.1. Artificial incitement of civil conflict in Odessa // 1.2. The reason for police inefficiency is corruption // 1.3. The fight for Anti-Corruption Bureau // 2. Economic Situation / 2.1. Issue of double taxation in banking system // 2.2. Aggravation of trade war with Russia // 2.3. Situation on the energy market // 3. Political Competition // 3.1. New Triple Alliance in Ukrainian politics // 3.2. The aggressive campaign of Yulia Tymoshenko // 3.3. Election threats by the representatives of the Party of Regions
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1. The Government Policy // 1.1. Pseudo-referendum is meant to increase stakes in the game // 1.2. Absence of Government’s information campaign // 1.3. The need for Ukrainian-Ukrainian dialogue // 2. Economic Situation // 2.1. The IMF restored cooperation with Ukraine // 2.2. Introduction of financial ombudsman position // 2.3. Issues in the energy sector // 3. Political Competition // 3.1. Poroshenko is confident in his victory // 3.2. Tymoshenko copies other candidates // 3.3. The Party of Regions is in decline // 3.4. The fate of the Communist Party to be determined only by the voters
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1. The Government Policy // 1.1. The Government failed to counter the challenges of hybrid war // 1.2. Lack of changes in law enforcement and courts // 1.3. Economic changes take place only under the IMF pressure // 1.4. Signing the Association Agreement is Government’s half-victory // 1.5. Nothing mentioned about administrative reform // 2. Economic Situation // 2.1. The Government is ready to compromise on taxes // 2.2. The gas question continues to provide challenges // 2.3. A food crisis looms in Crimea... and not only // 3. Political Competition // 3.1. Petro Poroshenko: A sociological hegemony // 3.2. Yulia Tymoshenko: Kill all the oligarchs! // 3.3. Serhiy Tihipko: Going for the bronze? // 3.4. Party of the Regions: Bent on self-destruction // 3.5. New faces fail to make hay // 3.6. Oleh Liashko and Anatoliy Hrytsenko: The soldier boys
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1. The Government Policy // 1.1. Gaps in election organization // 1.2. Questions to ATO leadership // 1.3. Who will coordinate European integration in Ukraine? // 2. Economic Situation // 2.1. Expectations from Petro Poroshenko in economic sphere // 2.2. NBU idea about FX loans // 2.3. Situation in the energy sector // 3. Political Competition // 3.1. Promises and challenges of the winner of the presidential race // 3.2. Unexpected election results // 3.3. Vitaliy Klitschko’s victory in Kyiv
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1. The Government Policy // 1.1. Why is anti-terrorist operation inefficient? // 1.2. Constitutional changes are needed to “reset” the state // 1.3. MPs’ vision of constitutional reform // 2. Economic Situation // 2.1. Russia secures a grip on Crimea // 2.2. Situation in energy sector // 3. Political Competition // 3.1. Quality of President’s team will influence his capacity for reforms // 3.2. Need for new forces in the parliament // 3.3. Electoral failure of the Communist Party // 3.4. Decline in “Svoboda” electoral support
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1. The Government Policy // 1.1. Administrative reform as the basis for changes in the country // 1.2. The President promised to initiate a dialogue with the East // 1.3. Internal migration – a new challenge for the Government // 2. Economic Situation // 2.1. Moratorium on alienation of mortgage property // 2.2. Budget income from Donbas is lower than expected // 2.3. The Government has created State Fiscal Service // 2.4. Energy sector // 3. Political Competition // 3.1. Early parliamentary elections are subject to negotiation // 3.2. “Batkivshchyna” could become a constructive opposition // 3.3. Experienced politicians are exploiting the idea of “new faces”
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1. The Government Policy // 1.1. The President’s ratings may fall due to the “policy of waiting” // 1.2. Separation of political and administrative positions will give rise to public service reform // 2. Economic Situation // 2.1. NBU continues to clear out the banking sector // 2.2. Ukraine expects the Third gas war with Russia // 3. Political Competition // 3.1. Political parties are getting prepared for pre-election campaign // 3.2. Obscure political manoeuvres are still taking place in Kyiv City Council
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1. The Government Policy // 1.1. Balancing between negotiations and military scenario // 1.2. Army issues require an immediate resolution // 1.3. The judicial system is resisting to changes // 2. Economic Situation // 2.1. The government offers to introduce special period in energy sector // 2.2. The NBU got a new head – from business // 2.3. Crimean goods will not receive European preferences // 3. Political Competition // 3.1. Creation of Petro Poroshenko’s team // 3.2. Ihor Kolomoisky may bring his party to the Parliament // 3.3. Fight for Eastern electorate
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1. The Government Policy // 1.1. Cease-fire has not achieved its goal // 1.2. Constitutional reform is top secret // 2. Economic Situation // 2.1. Economic forecast becomes more pessimistic // 2.2. Russia creates barriers for Ukrainian products // 2.3. Gas issues should be solved in summer // 3. Political Competition // 3.1. Petro Poroshenko’s dilemma // 3.2. Obtaining absolute power in Kyiv will “hit” on Klitschko // 3.3. Yulia Tymoshenko stands an informational pause // 3.4. The need for new faces in politics has not disappeared
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