Series:PISM Reports

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Documents Talk NATO-RUSSIA relations after the cold war

Author(s): / Language(s): English

(...) regardless of the adopted perspective of an observer or analyst, and optimism/pessimism related to NATO-Russia relations, they will remain a key aspect of international security. This necessitates the search for “source knowledge” and “decoding” numerous stereotypes and simplifications that these relations have overgrown for the last quarter century. One must not forget the calculated and deliberate disinformation that Russia has been practising regarding its relations with the Alliance. It consistently uses the myth of “betrayal of the West”, blaming NATO nations for being the primary cause of the current state of NATO-Russia relations. It is not our task in this volume to explain the nature of these problems exhaustively, nor to discuss the structure of modern Russian political mythology. However, the significant dispersion of “first-hand” sources raises the bar of problems confronting researchers of NATO-Russia relations. Therefore, this volume attempts at gathering key open-source documents produced by both sides and arranging them into a representative whole to provide a better understanding of the “big picture” (...). The emerging picture of political thinking and policy justifications offers the power of beating back many stereotypical opinions (...)

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Dyplomacja samorządowa. Przykład Wielkopolski

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): Polish

Wielkopolska region remains one of the most active in international contacts, with over 63% of local government bodies cooperating with foreign partners and another 19% planning to launch international cooperation in the near future. German local governments hold a special place among foreign partners, as nearly three-fourths of Wielkopolska’s local authorities cooperate with their German counterparts. The decline in the number of partners from Western Europe is accompanied by more intensive contacts with local governments from the neighboring countries and Hungary, and enhanced cooperation with Eastern Partnership and Asian countries, especially with China, is a likely prospect.

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EU Communication Policy in Its Neighbourhood in Light of Third-Party Propaganda

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Due to mounting Russian propaganda in the eastern neighbourhood and in the Baltic states, the EU set up a task force (East StratCom) in September to counter stereotypes about the Union disseminated by the Moscow apparatus. This is a step in the right direction, but a drop in the ocean of needs. The Union still allocates sparse resources to support independent media operating in Russian and in local languages. EU delegations face staff shortages in communication units, especially those covering social media, while the budgets of those units remain small in comparison to the countries covered by enlargement policy. This report examines the limitations of EU communication in the neighbourhood and draws on the experience of EU delegations to provide recommendations for building an image of the Union understandable to ordinary people.

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France and the Future of the European Union

Author(s): / Language(s): English

At the EU level, President Hollande is attempting to distance himself from his predecessor by putting emphasis on growth measures, as a supplement to the austerity policies opposed by some southern European states, and by opening up the Franco-German tandem to new players, notably the southern members but also those to the east. Franco-German disagreements concerning current EU issues, notably the scope of the banking union and the solidarity agenda towards the south, are negotiable. In relation to the future of the European project, however, besides a shared reluctance to deepen EU integration and an acceptance for strengthening eurozone governance in a multispeed format, the two countries barely share a common vision. This lack of a shared vision is, however, partly the result of a difficult domestic situation that plays a vital role in Hollande’s EU policy. The president has to face the challenge of restoring growth to the French economy and addressing deep French euroscepticism as well as arriving at consensus on EU policy within his own Socialist Party (PS), riven by splits since the debate on the Constitutional Treaty. Common Security and Defence Policy is, by contrast, an area of continuity, and no major change is expected in France’s involvement in developing the policy. Indeed, due to defence budget constraints, the focus will be a pragmatic one on developing concrete cooperation in the industrial field in a bilateral or trilateral format. Partnership with Poland would be fruitful.

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Is a New Cold War Inevitable? Central European Views on Rebuilding Trust in the Euro-Atlantic Region

Author(s): Martina Heranová,Zdzisław Lachowski,Raimonds Rublovskis / Language(s): English

When the idea to invite Central European experts to share their views on overcoming the acute deficit of trust in the relationship between the West and Russia first originated in early 2014, there was still some hope that the Ukraine crisis would not mark the beginning of a new period of confrontation in Europe. With that in mind, PISM asked the authors not only to comment on the state of the relationship with Russia but also to assess to what extent various proposals (including Carnegie’s Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative papers and the 2013 report by U.S., Russian and European experts, “Building Mutual Security in the Euro-Atlantic Region”) regarding military confidence building and arms control dialogue with Russia would advance the security of Central European countries. However, as the situation deteriorated with Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its support for eastern Ukraine separatists, the focus inevitably had to turn from dealing with the symptoms (mutual mistrust) to addressing the root causes of the spat between Russia and the West, which now threatens the very foundations of the European security system. Previous approaches to mending the relationship, such as those focused on finding areas of cooperation based on common interests (e.g., dealing with terrorism or the Iranian nuclear programme), were unlikely to be sufficient.

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Konferencja Przeglądowa Traktatu o nierozprzestrzenianiu broni jądrowej (NPT) w 2015 roku: nowy kompromis lub ryzyko erozji

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec,Artur Kacprzyk,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): Polish

Traktat o nierozprzestrzenianiu broni jądrowej (Non-Proliferation Treaty – NPT) został podpisany w 1968 r. i wszedł w życie w 1970 r. Pierwotnie miał obowiązywać 25 lat, ale Konferencja Przeglądowa i Przedłużająca w 1995 r. (NPT Review and Extension Conference) nadała mu charakter bezterminowy. Traktat jest niemal uniwersalny. Jego stronami jest 190 państw, a poza nim pozostają jedynie Indie, Izrael, Pakistan, Korea Północna i Sudan Południowy. Depozytariuszami traktatu są Stany Zjednoczone, Rosja i Wielka Brytania. NPT opiera się na trzech głównych filarach: nieproliferacji (art. I, II), rozbrojeniu (art. VI) i pokojowym wykorzystaniu energii jądrowej (art. IV). U jego źródła leży tzw. wielki kompromis (grand bargain) między pięcioma państwami nuklearnymi (USA, Rosja, Wielka Brytania, Francja, Chiny) a nienuklearnymi. Państwa nienuklearne zrzekły się prawa do posiadania broni jądrowej, a w zamian otrzymały pomoc w cywilnym wykorzystaniu energii jądrowej oraz zobowiązanie państw nuklearnych do działań na rzecz nuklearnego rozbrojenia. Nad tym, by państwa nienuklearne przestrzegały swych zobowiązań, czuwać ma Międzynarodowa Agencja Energii Atomowej (MAEA).

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Myths and Legends: Modern History and Nationalistic Propaganda in Egyptian Textbooks

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

In 2011, Egyptians overthrew their authoritarian president, Hosni Mubarak. Since then, tumultuous shifts in civilian rule and military interventions have marred Egypt’s transition to democracy, prompting speculation about the potential for reversion to an authoritarian system. How revolutionary was Egypt’s change and how much of it remains? Among the most basic barometers of overall systemic revolutionary change is the education system and, more precisely, the way history is taught. “History is written by the victors,” Winston Churchill was to have remarked, and so history is often rewritten after a revolution. The victors usually want the old narrative removed and their own, new vision presented in textbooks, as they are understood to shape young people’s understanding of the past and present, thus they are conducive to the survival of the new regime.

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NATO and the Future of Peace in Europe: Towards a Tailored Approach

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk,Kacper Rękawek,Witold Rodkiewicz,Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

“NATO exists for peace by collective security”. This quote by Lord Ismay, the first Secretary General of NATO, encapsulates the central purpose of the Alliance, which has been directly tasked with preserving the peace in Europe for over 60 years, longer than any other organisation on the continent. Hence, today’s considerations on the future of NATO, its policies and capabilities, are in fact tantamount to deliberations on the future of European peace and on how to maintain it. At the same time, answers to pressing threats and challenges are urgently sought, as the European security environment is undergoing a structural change. This transformation is primarily characterised by rapid developments and significant interconnections between multiple threats of a military, asymmetric and non-military nature. After Russia forcibly annexed Crimea and then intervened militarily in eastern Ukraine, military aggression, considered a remote threat for the last two decades, is back on the European security landscape. In the strategic vicinity of Europe, non-state actors driven by radical ideology, particularly the so-called Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and Al-Qaeda, have conquered large amounts of territory and established quasi-states, which enabled them to inspire or directly control terrorist networks in Europe, North Africa and the Sahel. Attacks such as those in Paris, Brussels or Bamako testify to their growing capabilities.

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Nowe uzbrojenie Rosji – propaganda, uzupełnianie braków czy wyzwanie dla NATO?

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): Polish

In recent years, Russia has intensified work on new types of weapons for all parts of its Armed Forces. By introducing the new weapon types, Russia wants to base its strength not only on its nuclear forces, which in many cases is completely ineffective as a deterrent, but also on conventional forces. This goal has resulted in the need to replace obsolete equipment and has been financed by the economic prosperity of the country, thanks mainly to high oil prices. With the higher inflows to the country’s budget, Russian authorities managed to increase funds for rearmament. The current economic crisis, however, and in particular the fall in the price of crude oil, the sales of which form the base revenue of Russia’s budget (amounting to about 45%), may result in a loss of funding for the rearmament programmes. The plans may be further limited by technological deficiencies in Russia’s military industry, exacerbated by sanctions introduced by the EU and U.S. in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine and which prevent the acquisition of Western technology, especially military-grade electronics. In the short- and medium-term perspectives, Russia’s financial problems may result in the need to select priority technologies and choose between the armed forces that will be equipped first. Considering the amount of new equipment introduced by Russia and ongoing research projects on new types of weapons, the most important is the Russian Air and Space Forces, as well as its Strategic Rocket Forces. The country will also invest in weapons for ground troops and naval aviation. A number of changes will also affect the navy, but in this case the reason is mainly the poor technical condition of Russian Federation assets.

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Options for Transparency and Confidence-Building Measures Related to Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Cost-Benefit Matrix

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec,Andrei Zagorski / Language(s): English

On 20–21 February 2014 in Warsaw, the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) in cooperation with the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO RAN) organised the workshop: Transparency and Confidence-Building Measures Related to Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Cost-Benefit Matrix. The workshop sought to advance the informal dialogue on information-sharing and transparency and confidence-building measures (TCBMs) regarding non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNW) in Europe. The idea behind the workshop was based on the concept of a Joint TCBM Cost-Benefit Matrix, outlined in the final report of the 2013 Warsaw Workshop: Prospects for Information-Sharing and Confidence-Building on Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe.

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Personel Europejskiej Służby Działań Zewnętrznych do przeglądu? Bilans i wnioski z dotychczasowej polityki kadrowej

Author(s): Ryszarda Formuszewicz,Dorota Liszczyk / Language(s): Polish

W związku ze zbliżającym się przeglądem Europejskiej Służby Działań Zewnętrznych – zaplanowanym w 2013 r. – kwestie personelu służby, bezpośrednio przekładające się na efektywność tej struktury mogą ponownie znaleźć się w centrum uwagi. Dotychczasowa polityka kadrowa i przebieg procesu rekrutacji – na bieżąco poddawane wnikliwej ocenie ze strony państw członkowskich – spowodowały, że dysproporcje w reprezentacji obywateli członków UE wśród personelu ESDZ zostały zmniejszone, ale nie wyeliminowane. Przegląd ESDZ powinien więc stanowić okazję do dalszego poszukiwania akceptowalnych i pozwalających wyrównywać istniejące deficyty rozwiązań, tak aby w perspektywie europejska dyplomacja wyposażona była w kompetencje i umiejętności na miarę wyzwań XXI wieku.

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Perspektywy rozwoju współpracy gospodarczej Polski z Chińską Republiką Ludową

Author(s): Artur Gradziuk,Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): Polish

Coraz więcej państw przywiązuje dużą wagę do zacieśniania i pogłębiania relacji z Chinami ze względu na ich wzrastające znaczenie w gospodarce światowej. Postrzegają je jako najważniejszego lub jednego z najważniejszych partnerów w Azji, chcąc wykorzystać przemiany oraz rosnący potencjał ekonomiczny ChRL do realizacji własnych interesów gospodarczych. W niektórych państwach opracowano szczegółowe strategie lub plany działania określające cele stosunków z Chinami oraz narzędzia ich osiągnięcia. Również Polska powinna przyznać priorytet rozwojowi relacji z jednym z najbardziej perspektywicznych pozaeuropejskich partnerów gospodarczych. Niemniej, ze względu na różnice w potencjale oraz strukturę gospodarki Polski i Chin, nie we wszystkich dziedzinach istnieją możliwości rozwoju współpracy. Autorzy raportu przyjęli założenie, że z punktu widzenia polskich interesów priorytetowymi zadaniami powinny być wzrost polskiego eksportu oraz zachęcanie chińskich przedsiębiorstw do inwestowania w Polsce.

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Polityka bezpieczeństwa Polski i Norwegii w wymiarze narodowym, regionalnym i europejskim

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski,Jakub M. Godzimirski,Krzysztof Kasianiuk,Wojciech Lorenz,Tomasz Paszewski,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Pernille Rieker,Ulf Sverdrup / Language(s): Polish

Pomimo dzielących Polskę i Norwegię istotnych różnic – wynikających choćby z położenia geopolitycznego oraz odmiennych potencjałów ekonomicznych i ludnościowych – oba państwa są bliskimi partnerami w dziedzinie polityki bezpieczeństwa. Ich współpraca opiera się na mocnym fundamencie, utworzonym przez podobną percepcję zagrożeń dla Europy oraz dobrze zdefiniowane, wspólne dla obu krajów interesy strategiczne. Najważniejszym z nich jest utrzymanie silnego Sojuszu Północnoatlantyckiego, zdolnego do zapewnienia bezpieczeństwa państwom członkowskim, przede wszystkim poprzez wiarygodną zdolność do bezpośredniej obrony ich terytoriów, a dopiero w następnej kolejności przez zagraniczne operacje reagowania kryzysowego i współpracę polityczną (bezpieczeństwo kooperatywne). Właśnie w ramach NATO, a zarazem na poziomie politycznym, oba państwa współdziałają ze sobą najintensywniej, zwłaszcza w sytuacji wzrostu niestabilności europejskiego środowiska bezpieczeństwa, zapoczątkowanego konfliktem rosyjsko-ukraińskim. Jednak potencjał współpracy Polski i Norwegii oraz ich wzajemnego uczenia się od siebie nie jest jeszcze w pełni wykorzystany. W raporcie przeanalizowano najważniejsze problemy polskiej i norweskiej polityki bezpieczeństwa, w których rozwiązaniu mogłoby obu państwom pomóc wzajemne czerpanie ze swoich doświadczeń lub podjęcie ściślejszej współpracy. Do badań wybrano zagadnienia reprezentujące trzy podstawowe wymiary polityki bezpieczeństwa: narodowy, regionalny oraz europejski i transatlantycki; są to zarazem trzy poziomy rządzenia wyróżniane w metodologii projektu „GoodGov”.

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Polska–Chiny. Ocena współpracy gospodarczej polskich przedsiębiorstw z Chinami

Author(s): Romuald Członkowski,Jarosław Ćwiek-Karpowicz,Marek Gajdziński,Artur Gradziuk,Andrzej Kaczmarek,Patrycja Operacz,Mariusz Strojny,Patryk Toporowski,Joanna Trawka,Beata Wojna / Language(s): English,Polish

Poland is increasingly developing economic cooperation with non-European countries. The development of such cooperation is much more difficult than in the case of European countries, mainly because of the geographical distance, the different business environment and high competition with foreign companies. However, due to the EU’s protracted economic problems, one solution for Polish companies has been to search for new business partners outside Europe and expand trade and investment on new markets where the Polish presence is relatively weak. One of the most important directions of this expansion is the East, with China being among the largest centres of the global economy and a country with the highest rate of economic growth. Not only China’s economic success but also its size and the growth potential of its internal market offer great opportunities for foreign companies and their business interests. China is one of the most important directions for expansion in the business strategy of many companies in the next few years.

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Promocja Polskiej gospodarki za granicą

Author(s): Artur Gradziuk,Patryk Kugiel,Maya Rostowska,Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): Polish

Polski biznes jest coraz bardziej zainteresowany współpracą z państwem w zakresie ekspansji na rynkach zagranicznych. Rząd polski, w szczególności Ministerstwo Spraw Zagranicznych (MSZ) oraz Ministerstwo Gospodarki (MG), coraz aktywniej promuje Polskę oraz wspiera polskie przedsiębiorstwa na tych rynkach. Co zrobić, aby współpraca układała się jak najlepiej i była efektywna? Zagadnieniom tym poświęcona była Debata Strategiczna w sierpniu 2013 r. zorganizowana przez Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych (PISM) oraz Fundację Dyplomacji Publicznej, z udziałem przedstawicieli rządu oraz liderów polskiego biznesu. Raport przygotowany przez PISM stanowi rozwinięcie najważniejszych tez i wniosków z dyskusji podczas tego spotkania. Powstał na podstawie analizy obecnego systemu promocji polskiej gospodarki za granicą i współpracy państwo–biznes, konsultacji w MSZ i MG oraz badań ankietowych przeprowadzonych wśród polskich przedsiębiorstw.

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Relacje Unia Europejska – Wielka Brytania po ewentualnym Brexicie. Stanowiska Niemiec, Francji, Włoch, Hiszpanii i Polski

Author(s): / Language(s): Polish

W obliczu niepewnego wyniku brytyjskiego referendum Unia Europejska powinna przygotować się na ułożenie swoich relacji z Wielką Brytanią na nowo już jako z państwem nieczłonkowskim. Ewentualna nowa forma tych relacji będzie efektem żmudnych negocjacji, zależnym od wypadkowej interesów gospodarczych i politycznych krajów członkowskich – przede wszystkim największych, czyli Niemiec, Francji, Włoch, Hiszpanii oraz Polski. To wokół preferowanych przez nie rozwiązań będą budowały się koalicje, w skład których wejdą mniejsze państwa członkowskie. Raport PISM przedstawia możliwe preferencje największych państw w przyszłych stosunkach z Wielką Brytanią i prognozuje, jakie rozwiązania są najbardziej prawdopodobne.

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Starting the Process of Trust-Building in NATO–Russia Relations: The Arms Control Dimension

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec,Ian Kearns,Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English

The security climate in Europe has chilled considerably. While we are far from a threat of a military confrontation, worst-case assumptions are frequently being made about the intentions of “the other.” A fundamental change of the climate of the relationship is possible if the West and Russia work together to increase mutual trust in the military field. Trust-building in the anarchic international environment is inherently difficult, but three approaches stand out: graduated reciprocation (a sequence of limited conciliatory steps), costly signals (bold concessions aimed at showing trustworthiness), and reliance on inter-personal dynamics, especially contacts between leaders. In the NATO–Russia context, only a combination of these three approaches aimed at reaching specific, realistically selected arms control aims can bring about notable progress. Mutual restraint and increased transparency should be the guiding principles.

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The Security Policy of Poland and Norway in the National, Regional and European Dimensions

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski,Jakub M. Godzimirski,Krzysztof Kasianiuk,Wojciech Lorenz,Tomasz Paszewski,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Pernille Rieker,Ulf Sverdrup / Language(s): English

Notwithstanding considerable differences in geography and in economic and demographic potential, Poland and Norway are close security policy partners, with their cooperation in the field resting on a solid foundation of similar threat perceptions and well-defined strategic interests, shared by both countries. The most important of those interests is to keep the North Atlantic Alliance strong and able to effectively provide security to member states, primarily through the credible capability of direct defence of their territories, and then later through crisis-management operations and cooperative security. It is precisely within the NATO framework and at the political level that the Polish-Norwegian cooperation has grown most dynamically, especially with increasing instability in the European security environment following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. And yet, the potential for closer collaboration between Poland and Norway and for sharing one another’s experiences is much larger than current practice would indicate. The present report analyses key aspects of Polish and Norwegian security policy, where both countries could benefit from the other party’s good practices and experience, and where they could establish closer cooperation. The research covers areas representing three broad dimensions of security policy: national, regional and European. These are also the three levels of governance, as they are proposed in the methodological framework of the GoodGov project.

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U.S. Military Presence in Central and Eastern Europe: Consequences for NATO Strategic Adaptation, Deterrence and Allied Solidarity

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

In the wake of the Ukraine conflict and Russian hostility towards NATO, the United States has proven to be the most resolute and capable Ally of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) states. The U.S. has been striving to provide leadership for the Alliance and invigorate other members to act, while implementing deterrence and reassurance measures on faster and on bigger scale than other countries. U.S. activities in CEE have included persistent rotational presence of small land forces, air and naval deployments to the region, intense training and exercises, unprecedented pre-positioning of heavy armour in the region, and improvements to local infrastructure. The U.S. has acted both bilaterally and multilaterally, as well as within the framework of NATO’s joint Readiness Action Plan (RAP). U.S. actions have been received very warmly among CEE countries, which are concerned about Russia’s behaviour and especially interested in the support and presence of the leading and most powerful member of the Alliance. Nevertheless, for Poland and the Baltic States, the permanent basing of Allied combat forces is a priority. It is necessary to send a strong political signal to Moscow, and prove that there are no second-class security guarantees for new NATO members. The intention is also to deny Russia hopes of achieving a quick victory and presenting the U.S. and the Alliance with a fait accompli. At the very least, small permanent forces would ensure that even a successful attack against CEE states would automatically result in a costly conflict with the U.S. and NATO. At the other end of the scale, bigger deployments would slow down an enemy offensive and buy time for reinforcements to arrive.

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Udział sektora prywatnego w wielostronnej pomocy rozwojowej. Szanse dla Polski

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): Polish

While multilateral development assistance offers vast business opportunities for European companies, Polish firms have so far been playing a marginal role on this market due in part to limited awareness of the existing opportunities. Hence the report describes the activities and procurement systems of the major international organisations: the European Union, the World Bank and the United Nations, offering case studies of countries that take active part in development projects outside Europe and providing recommendations for Polish firms on how to be more active and successful in this segment of the global market.

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