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Series:OSW Commentary

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Germany and the trade conflict between Lithuania & China
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Germany and the trade conflict between Lithuania & China

Germany and the trade conflict between Lithuania & China

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: trade conflict; Germany; Lithuania; Chinese government’s trade boycott; Germany’s trade;

The Chinese government’s trade boycott of Lithuania risks causing economic losses for Germany and weakening the cohesion of the EU’s common market. However, Berlin is unlikely to take any decisive actions – such as pushing through retaliation – due to its huge dependence on the Chinese market, as well as differences of opinion within the government on what direction its Beijing policy should tale. Thus Germany will limit itself to diplomatic efforts, counting that the actions taken at the EU level by the European Commission and the French presidency of the EU Council will be effective.

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A dangerous dependence on Russia. Germany and the gas crisis
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A dangerous dependence on Russia. Germany and the gas crisis

A dangerous dependence on Russia. Germany and the gas crisis

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Germany; natural gas; gas imports; LNG; Nord Stream 2; Germany’s primary energy consumption;

The German economy is heavily dependent on natural gas, almost all of which it purchases from foreign suppliers. More than half of this is from Russia. For years, Germany underestimated the dangerous degree of its gas dependence on Russia because it was convinced that the two countries had common interests. The absence of the adequate diversification of supply sources has proven to be a mistake in Berlin’s energy policy. Stoked by Moscow, the European gas crisis has affected Germany and other countries. Combined with the threat of renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine, it made Germany increasingly aware of the scale of this dependence. Although the country’s energy cooperation with Russia will not change fundamentally in the short term, it is now more likely that Germany will take real action to reduce its vulnerability to similar crises in the future. Although it is likely to be only a provisional move, Berlin’s decision to freeze the certification process of Nord Stream 2 (NS2) indicates that its perception of Russia as a partner in energy cooperation is also changing.

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Caution and anticipation: Turkey and the Russo-Ukrainian war
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Caution and anticipation: Turkey and the Russo-Ukrainian war

Caution and anticipation: Turkey and the Russo-Ukrainian war

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota,Adam Michalski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; Russo-Ukrainian war; balancing between extremes;

Turkey’s official attitude towards the Russia-Ukraine war is essentially in line with NATO’s position on the conflict (it has shown support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, including in the UN, and provided material aid), but it has also avoided any actions or rhetoric which would clearly strike at Russia’s interests (no sanctions, its airspace remains open, etc.). Turkey has officially called for a political solution to the conflict (it initiated and hosted talks between the Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers on 10 March). This policy resembles Ankara’s traditional approach: nurturing and protecting its extensive political, economic and military relations with both Kyiv and Moscow, while balancing and playing off the West’s and Russia’s interests without formally breaking ties with either side. In the current situation, this attitude appears as an expression of Turkey’s alarmed stance at the prospect that the conflict between Russia and the West might escalate; that the Turkish economy could collapse; and above all, that the war might have disastrous results for Turkey’s security in the Middle East.

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The EU gas market and policy and the war in Ukraine
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The EU gas market and policy and the war in Ukraine

The EU gas market and policy and the war in Ukraine

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU gas market; War in Ukraine; Russian gas shipments;

Neither the ongoing war in Ukraine nor the rising tensions between Russia and the West and the sanctions imposed by the latter have yet translated into disruptions of Russian gas supplies to the EU. However, they are unequivocally deepening the crisis on the EU gas market, which has been evident for more than six months now. This is evidenced by the record high and volatile commodity prices, as well as the nervousness of all the market players who anticipate disruptions in supplies from Russia and react with panic to suggestions of imposing sanctions aimed at Russian gas exports. The aggression against Ukraine has triggered a significant restructuring of the gas policy of the EU as a whole and most of its individual member states. There is a return to thinking in terms of security of supply – which has largely been absent in recent years – and a determination to become independent of gas and other hydrocarbons from Russia. Although at present many EU countries are not prepared to embargo imports of Russian gas, most are reforming their energy policies in such a way as to minimise their dependence on Russian raw materials.

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Ukrainian society rallies against the aggressor
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Ukrainian society rallies against the aggressor

Ukrainian society rallies against the aggressor

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian invasion against Ukraine; Ukrainian society; migration;

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, Ukrainian society, as well as the military, central and local authorities, have demonstrated courage and determination in standing up to the aggressor, and displayed the ability to take effective action in extremely difficult conditions. Despite Russia’s military advantage, the brutality of its army and the enormous scale of destruction and casualties suffered by the Ukrainian people, the prevailing attitudes are rage against the invader and pride in their country, people and army. A large stream of refugees, primarily women and children, has poured out of Ukraine, but those who have remained in the country are putting up stiff resistance, even in cities that have already been occupied by the enemy. ‘Grassroots work’ is also progressing steadily with various forms of self-organisation and solidarity, together with support for the army and internally displaced persons. These attitudes – contrary to Moscow’s expectations – are also being adopted by the residents and authorities of the eastern Ukrainian regions most affected by the war, most of whom are Russian speakers. Throughout the country, a fellowship of hatred is forming rapidly – not only towards the Russian state, the Russian authorities and the invading army, but also towards almost everything Russian, thus crystallizing the myth of a reborn Ukraine as an ‘anti-Russia’. Such attitudes do not bode well for plans to occupy the country by Russian troops. Even if some territories are seized and puppet administrations are installed, Russia will have to face a strong resistance movement, which will sharply increase the costs of such a project.

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Three weeks of war: Putin’s tactical dilemmas
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Three weeks of war: Putin’s tactical dilemmas

Three weeks of war: Putin’s tactical dilemmas

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Vladimir Putin; Russia's aggression against Ukraine; Russia’s attitude; invasion;

Three weeks after the start of the war against Ukraine, the Kremlin’s political objectives have not been achieved. The resistance from the Ukrainian armed forces persists, the morale of Ukrainian society is high, and the very serious sanctions imposed by the international community on Russia are causing an economic crisis and the partial political isolation of the country. There are many indications that this situation has largely come as a surprise to the Kremlin, which has fallen victim to faulty analysis and forecasting. In this situation, the man responsible for the decision to invade, the Russian President Vladimir Putin, faces the challenge of which further tactics of action to choose. It is now difficult to predict further developments, as these will depend particularly on the level of Ukrainian resistance, the scale of Western support and the immediate effects of sanctions. Of the many possible scenarios, the most likely now seems to be that of either halting the Russian offensive once a political agreement to implement some of the Kremlin’s political demands has been reached; or continuing it for a longer period of time, leading to Russia’s seizure of significant areas (especially the south-east of Ukraine) and the destruction of key elements of its military and civil infrastructure, turning the country into a failed state.

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War dictatorship: power and society in Russia
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War dictatorship: power and society in Russia

War dictatorship: power and society in Russia

Author(s): Katarzyna Chawryło (Jarzyńska),Maria Domańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Society; information blockade on Russian society; Kremlin’s propaganda offensive; suppression of anti-war protests;

With the start of the war against Ukraine, the Putin regime is taking on more and more features of a totalitarian system. The authorities are aiming for a total information blockade and a ‘rally around the flag’, including through the use of a massive propaganda campaign that is demonising Ukraine and the West. The degree of repression against the disloyal elements of society is growing. The few anti-war protests occurring in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have been nipped in the bud. One of the direct consequences of the invasion is the increase in emigration from Russia for political reasons. Although there is a lack of reliable sociological data on the real mood in Russian society, one can see a relatively high level of support for the ‘special operation’ in Ukraine or else passive acceptance of the Kremlin’s policy. Although society is beginning to suffer from the effects of Western sanctions (they include rapidly rising prices of basic products and a shortage of goods), there is no reason to expect any mass protests on economic grounds in the near future. The situation within the ruling elite also appears stable, despite the deep frustration among many groups of influence caused by the sanctions. Western restrictive measures have significantly raised the cost of participation in the Putin regime. Anti-war calls from the representatives of the establishment are few and far between, and they usually avoid direct criticism of the Kremlin, which maintains the ability to discipline those who are discontented. The narrow circle of decision makers, which comprises mainly the heads of secret services and law enforcement bodies, seems to fully share the objectives and methods of war set out by the president.

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The economic consequences of the war: a profound crisis looming for Russia
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The economic consequences of the war: a profound crisis looming for Russia

The economic consequences of the war: a profound crisis looming for Russia

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; military aggression against Ukraine; sanctions against Russia; Russian economy; The Kremlin; high oil prices;

In retaliation for its military aggression against Ukraine Russia has been sanctioned by around 50 countries, which accounted for half of Russia’s foreign trade and were of key importance to the stability of its capital market. The sanctions have hit the foundations of the Russian economy, principally targeting the financial market. The measures have affected every single sector of the economy, and the negative consequences of most of these measures have been immediate. Undoubtedly, this came as a major surprise to the Kremlin, especially as the scale of the sanctions considerably exceeded the scale of possible restrictions hinted at ahead of the invasion. It can be expected that as long as Russia continues to attack Ukraine, further restrictions will be imposed on it, including on its raw material sector.

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The war in Ukraine: consequences for the Bundeswehr and Germany’s policy in NATO
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The war in Ukraine: consequences for the Bundeswehr and Germany’s policy in NATO

The war in Ukraine: consequences for the Bundeswehr and Germany’s policy in NATO

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: The war in Ukraine; NATO; Germany’s security policy; Bundeswehr;

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has undermined the principle of German policy based on the notion that “the security of Europe can only be built with Russia, not against it”. Most German elites have come to understand that Putin’s Russia is not only a challenge but also a threat to NATO, and that investments in national defence and bolstering collective defence are therefore necessary. However, when it comes to supporting Ukraine and raising the costs of the current war for Russia, the German government continues to factor into its calculations its own dependence on Russian oil and gas and the resistance of some in the SPD to supplying Kyiv with weapons. Berlin still fails to see that the Kremlin’s defeat in this war is necessary to ensure long-term security in Europe.

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An attempt to “deoligarchise” Ukraine – real action or a game of pretence?
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An attempt to “deoligarchise” Ukraine – real action or a game of pretence?

An attempt to “deoligarchise” Ukraine – real action or a game of pretence?

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: The Ukrainian oligarchs; The Oligarchs Act; tax changes; Volodymyr Zelensky;

Over the past year, President Volodymyr Zelensky has changed his rhetoric towards representatives of big business, commonly referred to as oligarchs. He has made a shift from the position of a neutral arbiter to uttering slogans about combating their excessive influence on politics and the economy. On 5 November, he signed the Oligarchs Act, intended at limiting their influence on politics. In addition, an act amending tax regulations is to be passed in the near future, which will reduce the profits of those who own assets in the iron ore mining sector. However, the solutions adopted are largely of a populist nature and are unlikely to diminish the importance of the oligarchs. Instead, they may prove to be a convenient instrument for the ruling camp to put pressure on big business to ensure its loyalty. This will be crucial if Zelensky, contrary to the announcements he made during the election campaign, decides to seek re-election, which is becoming more and more likely.

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Digitalisation in Germany: an overview and what lies behind the delays
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Digitalisation in Germany: an overview and what lies behind the delays

Digitalisation in Germany: an overview and what lies behind the delays

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; digitalization; new government;

The adaptation of the economy and the state to new information technologies – next to the energy transformation (Energiewende) – is viewed as one of the greatest civilisational challenges Germany is currently facing. However, progress in this area is lagging behind expectations: it fails to match the level of GDP per capita in relation to Germany’s competitors in the EU, the country’s export-oriented economy or its ambition to be Europe’s economic and political leader. The problems with digitalisation are not due to financial constraints. Their causes are much deeper: the approach to innovation, the lack of specialists on the labour market, Germans’ sense of unease towards new technologies, as well as previous mistakes made during the development of the transmission infrastructure.

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Russia 2021: Consolidation of a dictatorship
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Russia 2021: Consolidation of a dictatorship

Russia 2021: Consolidation of a dictatorship

Author(s): Maria Domańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; dictatorship; Vladimir Putin; Repression; Increased control over the Internet; Communists;

The dynamics of the domestic political situation in Russia in 2021 was determined by the authorities’ crackdown on Alexei Navalny – the most important opposition figure – as well as on his associates and supporters. The aim was to destroy the nucleus of a nascent political alternative to the regime in view of the parliamentary election in September 2021 and, above all, the presidential election scheduled for 2024. The September vote revealed the limits of public support for the Kremlin and the considerable scale of the protest vote against those in power. Despite the unprecedented wave of repression and the lack of real competition in the parliamentary election, it was necessary to commit wholesale fraud to achieve the desired official results. The communist party (CPRF) became the main beneficiary of the protest vote, although it is doubtful whether the communists can become a real opposition force.

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Russia’s Ukrainian dilemma: Moscow’s strategy towards Kyiv
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Russia’s Ukrainian dilemma: Moscow’s strategy towards Kyiv

Russia’s Ukrainian dilemma: Moscow’s strategy towards Kyiv

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; Moscow; Kyiv; Kremlin's policy towards Ukraine; geopolitics; Volodymyr Zelensky;

Recent weeks have brought further displays of Russia’s escalating aggressive rhetoric and actions towards Ukraine, including troop movements near its border, as well as use of energy as leverage. This raises questions about Moscow’s intentions. Both the statements of Russian leaders and the policy of the Russian Federation in recent years indicate that it has not abandoned attempts to achieve one of its main policy objectives: restoring control over Ukraine. This is despite the fact that its actions to date – both limited military aggression and political, economic, and propaganda pressure – have only moved it further away from this goal. In the current conditions, with the stalemate in the Donbas conflict continuing, the Russian Federation is faced with a choice of its future strategy towards Ukraine. It has two main options: to escalate the armed conflict in the Donbas in order to achieve a rapid breakthrough, or to intensify long-term pressure, i.e. to play for Kyiv’s gradual exhaustion. The choice of strategy depends on the Russian perception of the situation, the attitude of Ukraine itself, and the behaviour of key Western actors.

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The Caucasus deregulated. The region on the anniversary of the end of the second Karabakh war
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The Caucasus deregulated. The region on the anniversary of the end of the second Karabakh war

The Caucasus deregulated. The region on the anniversary of the end of the second Karabakh war

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota,Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: second Karabakh war; Azerbaijan; Armenia; Georgia; Russia; Turkey;

A year after the end of the second Karabakh war, the situation in the South Caucasus evades simple definition. On the one hand, it seems relatively stable: most of the provisions of the tripartite Statement that gave rise to the end of the fighting are being implemented. Moreover, apart from a defeated and weakened Armenia, all the actors involved in the war have reasons to be satisfied: Azerbaijan has regained control of most of the disputed territories and has proved its strength; Turkey, which supported Baku, has reaffirmed and expanded its influence in the region; Russia has strengthened its position as a regulator of the conflict, as mediator and guarantor of the agreement. On the other hand, however, the region is much more ‘deregulated’ and unstable than it was before the war: the ceasefire on the Karabakh front is based on a document of low formal status, as the real peace process is still frozen; the sense of satisfaction among all the participants (especially Baku and Ankara) is at an unsatisfactorily low level in relation to the ambitions awakened within their societies. Finally, the impression that the entire regional order is being undermined is not waning as the Turkish-Russian rivalry grows and – on the other hand – the role of the West and Iran, which played practically no role during the conflict or the year since its end, is marginalized.

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Zelensky vs. Akhmetov – a test of strength
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Zelensky vs. Akhmetov – a test of strength

Zelensky vs. Akhmetov – a test of strength

Author(s): Tadeusz Iwański,Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Volodymyr Zelensky; Ukraine; Rinat Akhmetov; conflict between Zelensky and Razumkov;

In November, an open conflict broke out between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine’s richest businessman, Rinat Akhmetov. The main cause was Zelensky’s signing of the so-called law on oligarchs. In response, Akhmetov’s television channels, including the most popular one in Ukraine, began to ruthlessly attack the president and to promote his political rivals, in particular the former chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, Dmytro Razumkov, who had been dismissed a few weeks earlier and who until recently had been one of the key representatives of the ruling camp, a person with high public support. In response, Zelensky publicly suggested that Akhmetov was involved in an allegedly prepared state coup and that his entourage was dragging him into a war against Ukraine. Meanwhile, the President’s Office stepped up actions against his business.

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High North, high priority – Norway and the defence of NATO’s northern flank
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High North, high priority – Norway and the defence of NATO’s northern flank

High North, high priority – Norway and the defence of NATO’s northern flank

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO’s northern flank; Russia; Norway; US; Norway’s Armed Forces;

NATO’s northern flank plays an increasingly important role in the security of the Euro--Atlantic area. Russia’s forces in the Northern Military District pose not only a conventional threat to Norway, but also a nuclear threat to the whole NATO, including the United States and Canada due to submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles. The Russian Federation has been consistently increasing its military presence in the Arctic and its military activity along Norway’s borders. Deterring Russia in the High North, in increasingly close cooperation with the allies, is thus a key task for the Norwegian Armed Forces. Oslo is gradually lifting Cold War restrictions in the defence sphere and intensifying military cooperation with the US, which is stirring up political controversy in the country. From the US perspective, NATO’s northern flank is becoming more vital for containing Moscow. That is why they signed the Supplementary Defense Cooperation Agreement with Norway, expanding US troop access to military infrastructure there.

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NATO 2030: towards a new strategy
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NATO 2030: towards a new strategy

NATO 2030: towards a new strategy

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO 2030; Alliance; NATO Strategic Concept; collective defence; Russia; China; European security;

The NATO summit held in Brussels on 14 June was intended to show a return to transatlantic unity after four years of the Trump administration. The new President Joe Biden wanted to demonstrate that the United States is resuming its leadership role in the transatlantic community; that NATO is still an important alliance for the US; and Washington is committed to the principles of Article 5. The Alliance is also adapting to changes in the security environment by adopting the NATO 2030 agenda and deciding to develop a new strategic concept. However, the parameters of this adaptation will be subject to further negotiations between the allies, particularly with regard to strengthening deterrence and defence on the eastern flank, and with regard to how and to what extent the Alliance should engage in containing China. At the same time, as NATO adjusts its course to focus on deterrence and defence, other formats for security cooperation between the US & Europe and among the European countries are being developed.

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Protest suspended – Belarusian society one year after the presidential elections
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Protest suspended – Belarusian society one year after the presidential elections

Protest suspended – Belarusian society one year after the presidential elections

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarusian society; presidential elections; Protests; national awakening;

The progressive decline in living standards in Belarus and the authorities’ dismissive attitude towards the COVID-19 pandemic have intensified public disillusionment with Alyaksandr Lukashenka. This led to an increase in the civic activity of Belarusians – previously seen as passive –in the campaign prior to the presidential election on 9 August last year. The revival of social life was accompanied by a growing national consciousness. Both processes mostly concerned the relations between the authorities and civil society, and to a lesser extent the geopolitical orientation, although later polls revealed the first signs of waning trust in Russia and a greater openness towards the West. The forged results of the vote this time gave rise to unprecedented protests, and the violent reaction by law enforcement only fuelled greater resistance among citizens. The lack of concessions shown by the authorities and the weariness of the demonstrators resulted in the demonstrations being brought to a halt at the end of 2020. At the same time, the authorities started to systemically and thoroughly eliminate independent media and third sector structures to discourage citizens from any manifestations of opposition. Despite the use of instruments characteristic of a totalitarian regime, there are numerous indications that the grievances have not been permanently suppressed. The Belarusian citizens who opposed the authorities last year mostly retained their pro-democratic views and aspirations to structure the state according to the Western model. They will rise rapidly to greater prominence as the oppressive regime backed by Russia continues to lose its credibility.

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A durable state. The 30th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence
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A durable state. The 30th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence

A durable state. The 30th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine’s independence; USSR; Political history of Ukraine; Russian aggression; Malorossiya;

On 24 August 1991, Ukraine proclaimed independence, and a few months later (together with Russia and Belarus) it brought about the dissolution of the USSR. At the time of its foundation, the Ukrainian state was a continuation of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic; on the one hand, this delayed the de-Communisation of the organisational and legal system, but on the other, it saved the country from having to build up state institutions from scratch. After nearly a quarter of a century, the hour of its greatest trial arrived – revolution and war with Russia. Ukraine passed this test: it did not unilaterally implement the political part of the Minsk agreements which posed a direct threat to it, nor has it fallen into the group of ‘failed states’. The main threat to its future is not so much the ongoing conflict in the Donbas or the weakness of the economy, but rather demographic collapse: during its nearly thirty years of independence, it has lost a fifth of its population.

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The Zapad-2021 exercises. Russian strategy in practice
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The Zapad-2021 exercises. Russian strategy in practice

The Zapad-2021 exercises. Russian strategy in practice

Author(s): Piotr Żochowski,Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Zapad-2021; Russian Armed Forces; Russian strategic exercises; Belarus;

The Zapad-2021 strategic exercises, scheduled for 10–16 September, are the most important training programme yet undertaken held by the Russian Armed Forces and the Belarusian army which cooperates with them. As they involve as many as 200,000 soldiers, they will also be the largest military exercises conducted in Europe for nearly 40 years. The training phase actually began in July, and will peak during the officially announced dates. The accompanying disinformation operation began even earlier, at the end of 2020; the aim was to present the exercises as a defensive action by the alliance of Belarus and Russia against allegedly rising aggression by NATO. The Zapad-2021 (zapad meaning ‘west’) exercises are a test of how ready the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus are to conduct operations on NATO’s eastern flank, but they also represent a test of the state structures, in terms of the comprehensive security of their activities and operation in conditions of armed conflict. Particular importance should be attached to the attempt at verifying how effective both countries will beat conducting information warfare, the goal of which is to confirm the potential enemy in the belief that Russia is militarily superior, and that it is ready to use force for political purposes.

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