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Series:OSW Studies

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2002 Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine. Events, Results, Consequences
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2002 Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine. Events, Results, Consequences

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English,Polish

On 31 March 2002, parliamentary elections were held in Ukraine. As expected, they were a major success for the centrist-rightist coalition focused around former Prime Minister Viktor Yuschenko. The communists emerged significantly weaker from the vote, and the "party of power" achieved a poor result. Yet, due to the mixed electoral law (half of the deputies were elected in single-mandate districts), the latter block, firmly supported by President Leonid Kuchma, resulted as the main force in Parliament. The results of particular parties and blocks were as follows: Viktor Yuschenko's Block received 23.57% of votes and 112 seats, the Communist Party of Ukraine - 19.98% of votes and 66 seats, the "For One Ukraine" block - 11.77% of votes and 101 seats, Yulia Tymoshenko's Block - 7.26% of votes and 22 seats, the Socialist Party of Ukraine - 6.87% of votes and 22 seats, and the Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (united) - 6.27% of votes and 24 seats. This shows how the mixed electoral regulations favour "For One Ukraine" and act against Yuschenko's block. One should note, however, that the latter gained the support of less than one quarter of voters.

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A captive island: Kaliningrad between Moscow and the EU
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A captive island: Kaliningrad between Moscow and the EU

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża,Agata Wierzbowska-Miazga,Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

The Kaliningrad region can be called a 'captive island', because of its specific geopolitical location - it is part of the Russian legal, political and economic space, yet it is geographically separated from the rest of the Russian Federation, and it is particularly open to co-operation with its neighbours in the European Union. Moscow is trying to compensate the region for its separation, offering it financial support and economic privileges.At the same time, it is sensitive to any potential challenges to Russia's territorial integrity - and the centre's desire for control over the region often limits the latter's potential for cooperation and internal development. This report presents the situation in the region, and is intended to help develop a model for its effective regional co-operation with its EU neighbours.

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A quarter-century of independent Ukraine. Dimensions of transformation
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A quarter-century of independent Ukraine. Dimensions of transformation

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English

On 24 August 1991, the Supreme Council of the Ukrainian SSR proclaimed independence, and on 1 December the same year, the Ukrainian people ratified that proclamation in a referendum. The new Ukrainian state had some very important assets, such as the peaceful path that led to its independence, the fact that its territory was uncontested and its civilian administration was established. They downside, which determined Ukraine’s fundamental weaknesses, was that like the other former Soviet republics, it had been part of the Soviet state and had no central state bodies of its own, such as a general staff, a bank of issue, or most of the necessary ministries. // After nearly a quarter century of peaceful development, interrupted by the outbreak of the war in 2014, Ukraine is still weak, but at the same time it has consolidated internally and internationally, demonstrated its capacity to withstand armed aggression, and is actively looking for its place in the world. The country’s greatest success has been to raise a new generation of ‘natural-born citizens’ of Ukraine, while its greatest failure has been to succumb to the dramatic population decline with irreversible consequences, and to allow the impoverishment of the lower strata of society, typical for all the post-Soviet states. // The present paper is not a history of independent Ukraine, but an attempt to present the main mechanisms by which the former Soviet republic has transformed itself into an independent state with a market economy. It is therefore mainly focused on internal developments in Ukraine.

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A region with special needs. The Russian Far East in Moscow’s policy
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A region with special needs. The Russian Far East in Moscow’s policy

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): English

Although in the 1990s the Russian Far East was not an important region in Russian central government’s internal policy, when Vladimir Putin assumed the presidency it was declared strategically significant. However, Moscow has been unable to generate a tangible stimulus to the region’s development so far. This is partly due to the systemic problems existing in Russia as a whole: the lack of a consistent concept of economic development and the ineffective governance system, and on the other hand, of purely local barriers: staffing problems, the decentralised energy system and the limited engagement of foreign investors. // At present, there is no risk of the region’s marginalisation like in the 1990s. However, it appears that political reintegration of the region with the centre of the federation (tighter institutional control from Moscow) and the status of a stable raw material base for Asian countries, currently represents the maximum development potential of the Russian Far East.

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A summary of the politico-economic changes taking place during Vladimir Putin's first term of office // Chechnya and Russia: The significance of the Chechen problem for contemporary Russia
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A summary of the politico-economic changes taking place during Vladimir Putin's first term of office // Chechnya and Russia: The significance of the Chechen problem for contemporary Russia

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża,Iwona Wiśniewska,Maciej Falkowski / Language(s): English,Polish

Following his rise to power in 2000, Vladimir Putin presented a comprehensive socio-economic program for the development of Russia through to 20101. This program was prepared by a team of economic experts from the Centre for Strategic Studies (CS S )2 led by St. Petersburg's German Gref. In spite of the fact that this document was never accepted in its entirety, and only its main assumptions were approved, as of 2000, short- and medium-term socio-economic government program have been based on the same principles.The medium-term goal of this development strategy through to 2010 was the reduction of the widening gap between Russia and developed nations. The long-term goal, on the other hand, was the restoration and strengthening of Russia's position as a leader on the global scale. The reforms of Russia's political system, social policy and the modernisation of the economy were intended to help achieve these goals.The aim of this study is to describe and analyse political and socio-economic reforms, as well as non-legislative changes initiated under Vladimir Putin's presidency. New reform activities will probably not be initiated over the six months remaining until the presidential elections. For this reason, it is already possible to summarise the changes achieved in the political, economic and social spheres during President Putin's first term of office.A description of the political and economic reforms and also of non-legislative changes, which took place in the Russian Federation over the past three and a half years, has been included in Part I of this study. The conclusion hereof attempts to summarise the actual achievements of President Putin's team, and to answer the question concerning perspectives of the reform process and factors determining the shape there of.

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An essential partner in the background. Europe in China's policy during the rule of Xi Jinping
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An essential partner in the background. Europe in China's policy during the rule of Xi Jinping

Author(s): Marcin Kaczmarski / Language(s): English

Chinese elites do not treat Europe as an equal partner and are convinced that China holds the upper hand over Europe. They see a growing asymmetry in bilateral relations. China’s sense of its own potential is boosted by internal divisions within the European Union. At the same time, Europe is China’s key economic partner and an ‘economic pillar’ supporting China’s growth on the international stage. Beijing strives to maintain Europe’s open attitude towards the Chinese economy, in particular its exports, technology transfer to China, location of investments and diversification of China’s currency reserves. Cooperation with Europe and support from Europe are necessary to enable China to improve its position in the international economic and financial system, mainly in order to legitimise China’s actions in the area of multilateralism and global governance. Similarly, Beijing attaches great importance to maintaining Europe’s non-involvement in two issues: China’s core interests and Chinese-American relations.

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Ani krezus, ani bankrut. Kondycja finansowa Gazpromu
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Ani krezus, ani bankrut. Kondycja finansowa Gazpromu

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): Polish

W 2018 roku Gazprom – największy, kontrolowany przez państwo, rosyjski koncern gazowy – przyjął rekordowy w historii program inwestycyjny. W 2017 roku spółka odnotowała także największe w historii wpływy ze sprzedaży gazu i innych dóbr i usług. Jednocześnie w latach 2007–2017 ponad sześciokrotnie zmniejszyła się kapitalizacja koncernu, a całkowite zadłużenie osiągnęło w 2017 roku rekordowy poziom 55,2 mld USD. W związku z powyższym warto przyjrzeć się kondycji finansowej największego rosyjskiego koncernu gazowego, który zachowuje status znaczącego dostawcy gazu na rynek europejski (34% udziału w rynku UE w 2017 roku).

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At crossroads. Current problems of Russia’s gas sector
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At crossroads. Current problems of Russia’s gas sector

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): English

The Russian gas sector has found itself in a difficult situation. The mounting challenges and problems are primarily the consequence of the sector’s politicisation, the growing rivalry between Gazprom and the so-called independent gas producers, changes on external gas markets and the absence of reforms, which have been repeatedly postponed. Because Gazprom serves as an internal and foreign policy instrument and a source of revenues for the Russian elite, economic calculations or the interests of the sector as a whole have often been ignored by the state. This has led to problems in the gas production sector and challenges in external markets. // The purpose of this paper is to present the current condition of the Russian gas sector and its prospects. To a limited extent, the paper also discusses the wider context of the changes that occurred in the Russian gas sector in the years 2000-2016.

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Bałtowie wielu prędkości. Wzmacnianie potencjału obronnego Litwy, Łotwy i Estonii
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Bałtowie wielu prędkości. Wzmacnianie potencjału obronnego Litwy, Łotwy i Estonii

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): Polish

As regards defence policy, the Baltic states are usually treated by experts as forming a single unit. The reasons for this include a similar threat perception, similar military capabilities, and finally similar military modernisation programmes. However, the differences in their demographic and economic potentials as well as strategic cultures have resulted in them adopting different models of their armed forces.

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Between co-operation and membership. Sweden and Finland’s relations with NATO
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Between co-operation and membership. Sweden and Finland’s relations with NATO

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska,Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Sweden and Finland’s membership in NATO would significantly improve the level of security in the Baltic Sea region in the long-term by changing the politico-military imbalance that is currently in Russia’s favour. However, it is unlikely that Stockholm and Helsinki will change their non-alignment policy in the coming years. They will rather focus on enhancing politico-military co-operation with NATO. This has grown in importance to both countries in recent years in line with rising uncertainty in the region. The Swedish and Finnish wish for more substance in their military relations with NATO will however be met with increasing limitations as allied activity in the Baltic Sea region is focusing on collective defence and the two countries are not member states. // Despite the positive effect Sweden and Finland’s cooperation with NATO exerts on the region’s security, it also has negative implications. It does not eliminate the uncertainty about the scope of the two countries’ co-operation with the alliance in the case of a military conflict. It offers Stockholm an illusory sense of security, slowing down the pace of investments in defence; and for Helsinki it is rather an element of its deterrence policy towards Russia than a genuinely considered alternative.

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Big business in the Russian economy and politics under Putin's rule /// The Russian power industry shortly before reforms /// Ukrainian metallurgy: the economic link in the oligarchic power system
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Big business in the Russian economy and politics under Putin's rule /// The Russian power industry shortly before reforms /// Ukrainian metallurgy: the economic link in the oligarchic power system

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska,Ewa Paszyc,Arkadiusz Sarna / Language(s): English,Polish

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Bliskowschodnia polityka Rosji. Regionalne ambicje, globalne cele
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Bliskowschodnia polityka Rosji. Regionalne ambicje, globalne cele

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): Polish

Rosyjska interwencja wojskowa w Syrii, rozpoczęta jesienią 2015 roku, wywołała falę komentarzy głoszących, że Rosja odzyskała pozycję wielkiego mocarstwa na Bliskim Wschodzie. Celem niniejszego tekstu jest po pierwsze ustalenie, na czym polega rosyjska mocarstwowość na Bliskim Wschodzie, a po drugie rekonstrukcja motywów, jakimi kieruje się Kreml w swojej polityce bliskowschodniej. Pierwsza część pracy stanowi próbę określenia miejsca polityki bliskowschodniej w globalnej polityce zagranicznej Kremla oraz zidentyfikowania rosyjskich priorytetów w regionie. Część druga pokazuje ewolucję polityki bliskowschodniej postsowieckiej Rosji, zwracając uwagę z jednej strony na jej rosnące zaangażowanie w regionie, a z drugiej na instrumentalny charakter tego zaangażowania. Ze względu na to, że od jesieni 2015 roku interwencja wojskowa w Syrii stała się centralnym elementem rosyjskiej polityki na Bliskim Wschodzie, analizie jej przyczyn i celów jest poświęcona część trzecia tekstu. W części czwartej i piątej analizowana jest polityka Rosji wobec dwóch najważniejszych z jej punktu widzenia regionalnych partnerów – Turcji i Iranu. Część szósta to próba charakterystyki instrumentów, za pomocą których Rosja zbudowała swoją pozycję w regionie, a także dokonania bilansu rosyjskiej polityki bliskowschodniej i identyfikacji wyzwań, które przed nią stoją.

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BOÂNIACKI CHAOS. Źródła kryzysu politycznego we współczesnej Bośni i Hercegowinie
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BOÂNIACKI CHAOS. Źródła kryzysu politycznego we współczesnej Bośni i Hercegowinie

Author(s): Marta Szpala,Wojciech Stanisławski / Language(s): English,Polish

A new form of 'transformational crisis' has been observed in Bosnia and Herzegovina since at least 2005. Politicians representing the three major ethno-political communities (Bosnians, Croats and Serbs) have successively been raising disputes and have employed various political tools to preserve the conflicts instead of resolving them. As a result, the central state institutions and organisations have been weakened and attempts to replace them with narrower ethnic structures have been made. This is increasingly paralysing the state, thus impeding its everyday operation and preventing its structures and legislation from being modernised; had this been achieved, it would have resulted in a real acceleration of the process of Bosnia's integration with the EU and NATO. The present crisis is also an effect of the disagreement between the key international players - the European Union, the United States and Russia - over the 'plan for Bosnia' and the role and duties of the Office of the High Representative, who acts on behalf of the international community in the country.

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Bolesna adaptacja. Społeczne skutki kryzysu w Rosji
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Bolesna adaptacja. Społeczne skutki kryzysu w Rosji

Author(s): Jan Strzelecki / Language(s): Polish

Rosyjska gospodarka znajduje się w kryzysie, który dla społeczeństwa okazał się szczególnie dotkliwy. Ze względu na wysoką inflację i spadek płac realnych kryzys pogorszył sytuację materialną wszystkich klas społecznych. Uderzył w bytowe podstawy najaktywniejszych politycznie segmentów wielkomiejskiej klasy średniej. Dla dużej części społeczeństwa oznacza trwałą degradację i konieczność koncentracji na fizycznym przetrwaniu w warunkach biedy i ubóstwa. Pogorszenie nastrojów społecznych, które nastąpiło wskutek kryzysu, powoduje niekiedy powstawanie punktowych protestów o podłożu bytowym. W większości społeczeństwo nie manifestuje jednak niezadowolenia, lecz adaptuje się do nowych warunków, koncentrując się na indywidualnych strategiach przetrwania poprzez ograniczenie konsumpcji. Taktyka władz mająca ograniczać prawdopodobieństwo kolejnych protestów polega przede wszystkim na wzmacnianiu aparatu represji i państwowej propagandy, co przyczynia się do atomizacji społeczeństwa i utrudnia jego samoorganizację.

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China vs. Central Asia. The achievements of the past two decades
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China vs. Central Asia. The achievements of the past two decades

Author(s): Aleksandra Jarosiewicz,Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English

The collapse of the USSR brought about conditions conducive to the dynamic development of relations between Central Asia and China. These relations have evolved from deep mistrust to the continually growing Chinese presence primarily in the region’s economy but also increasingly in its politics. Central Asia is playing a growing role in those areas of the economy which China sees as strategic (in particular in energy and communications). China’s ambitions and capabilities with regard to new areas and its geopolitical competitors are also being tested here. For the time being, it can be said that China has achieved vast success: its offer is appealing for the region, and Beijing has outpaced its Western rivals and has seriously challenged Russia’s position in the region. It remains, however, an open question whether China will be able to maintain and secure its present achievements and trends, which will be a serious challenge given the eternal instability in the region and Russia’s reintegration ambitions.

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Chiny a Azja Centralna. Dorobek dwudziestolecia
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Chiny a Azja Centralna. Dorobek dwudziestolecia

Author(s): Aleksandra Jarosiewicz,Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): Polish

Rozpad ZSRR stworzył warunki do dynamicznego rozwoju relacji między Azją Centralną a Chinami. Ewoluowały one od daleko posuniętej nieufności po stale rosnącą obecność Chin, przede wszystkim w gospodarce, ale również w coraz większym stopniu w polityce regionu. Azja Centralna odgrywa coraz większą rolę w strategicznych dla Chin kwestiach gospodarczych(zwłaszcza energetycznych, ale również komunikacyjnych). Tu także testowane są ambicje i możliwości Chin wobec stosunkowo nowych obszarów i wobec geopolitycznych konkurentów. Jak dotąd można mówić o ogromnym sukcesie Chin: ich oferta jest atrakcyjna dla regionu, Pekin zdystansował rywali zachodnich i poważnie zagroził pozycji Rosji w regionie. Otwartą kwestią pozostaje jednak zdolność Chin do utrwalenia i zabezpieczenia obecnych osiągnięć i trendów, co wobec chronicznej niestabilności regionu, ale także ambicji reintegracyjnych Rosji będzie poważnym wyzwaniem.

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Coraz dalej od Moskwy. Rosja wobec Azji Centralnej
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Coraz dalej od Moskwy. Rosja wobec Azji Centralnej

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): Polish

Kraje poradzieckiej Azji Centralnej są dla Moskwy istotne jako potencjalne źródło zagrożeń, jako obszar jej relacji z Chinami, Zachodem i światem islamu, wreszcie jako przestrzeń objęta rosyjskimi inicjatywami integracyjnymi. Po rozpadzie ZSRR rosyjskie wpływy w tym regionie uległy daleko idącej erozji. Podjęcie przez Kreml konsekwentnych działań na rzecz budowy Unii Eurazjatyckiej, a także groźba destabilizacji regionu po zakończeniu w 2014 roku operacji ISAF w Afganistanie, przyhamowały ten proces, choć jego odwrócenie nie wydaje się realne. Obecny „stan posiadania” (instrumenty i aktywa, jakimi dysponuje Rosja) zapewnia jeszcze Moskwie minimalny poziom kontroli nad regionem, czemu sprzyja ograniczona aktywność innych światowych graczy. Sytuacja może ulec zmianie wraz ze wzrostem ich ambicji, zwłaszcza z ewentualnym zaangażowaniem Chin w obszarze „twardego” bezpieczeństwa.

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Crisis in Russia. The degradation of the model of economic governance
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Crisis in Russia. The degradation of the model of economic governance

Author(s): Maria Domańska / Language(s): English

The present economic crisis in Russia is conditioned above all by political factors. The crisis is proof of a serious dysfunction of the model of economic governance which is subordinated to the government elite’s individual interests. Because oil prices were at a high level until 2014, this model could work at a relatively low social cost. // However, now that the oil prices are remaining at a low level and given the lack of internal sources of long-term economic growth, the country is facing the risk of a long-lasting stagnation. It will lead to an inevitable degradation of the Russian economy and, above all, to a deterioration of the Russian public’s living standards. The government still does not intend to launch any structural reforms; its goal is to preserve the present system of control over the political and public sphere. // Is a political crisis possible in Russia, given these conditions? Should the government be wary of a ‘colour revolution’ or a revolt among the elite?

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Demographic situation in Russia
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Demographic situation in Russia

Author(s): Leszek Szerepka / Language(s): English,Polish

Throughout the history of Russia, periods of deep chaos have been accompanied by demographic crises. This was the case during the Time of Troubles, or Smutnoye Vremya, in the seventeenth century, and during the period of wars and revolutions in the early twentieth century, which brought the Bolsheviks to power. Similarly, the break-up of the USSR also coincided with a demographic crisis. However, while the previous crises had been caused by factors such as war, famine, epidemics or repressive policies, and were followed by periods of rapid population growth once these factors had ceased to operate, the current crisis is systemic and structural. To a large extent, it has been occasioned by cultural factors such as changing family models and the roles of women in today's society. In Russia, the effect of these factors on population increase is exacerbated by excessive alcohol consumption, an culture of inadequate working conditions which leads to many accidents at work, and healthcare deficiencies (only c. 3% of the GDP is spent on healthcare annually). // In 2005, the Russian Academy of Sciences concluded a research programme entitled 'The demographic modernization of Russia, 1900-2000'. In the report it indicated that the Russian state had lost c. 140 million people in the twentieth century as a result of bad policies. This means that the present population of Russia would be larger by this number if the development of the state in the previous century had followed similar patterns to that of European states, and if human life had been respected in Russia as much as it was in Western Europe. According to Russian researchers, many current demographic problems in Russia stem from occurrences in the distant past. Development models are difficult to correct within a short timespan. All projections concerning Russia's demographic development predict that the country's population will continue to shrink until at least the middle of the twentyfirst century. The projections only differ as to the speed and nature of the population decrease. // When juxtaposed with the dynamic GDP growth and the government's ambition to reinforce Russia's international position, the demographic problems are a dissonance. The Russian political elite is concerned that if the negative demographic trends prevail, this may eventually stop the country's economic development. It is also worried that with its current population density, Russia will not be able to defend its vast territory and use it adequately. It is frequently emphasised that as a world power, the USSR had always remained among the top three most populous countries in the world after China and India. In 2000, the Russian Federation, as the legal successor of the USSR, dropped to sixth in this ranking, and in the mid-21st century it will struggle to remain in the top twenty. According to Russian analysts, a country with such a small population potential, disproportionate to its territory, will face difficulties preserving its status as a world power, and consequently in defending its international interests. The fact that Russia is a multinational state further complicates the situation. The country used to be dominated by ethnic Russians, but their percentage is shrinking systematically. In the future, this may affect both the country's cohesion and its prevailing cultural models. // The Russian authorities are aware of these threats; President Vladimir Putin mentions them regularly in his addresses to the nation. In his most recent speech, delivered on 10 May 2006, Putin said that the demographic crisis was the most important issue in Russia's internal policy. Demographic problems have been discussed by the parliament, the government and the Russian Federation Security Council. A document entitled 'A concept for the Russian Federation's demographic development to 2015' has been adopted. // The media cover the issue, frequently taking an alarming tone. However, in the policies implemented by the Russian authorities, improving the demographic situation has not been a genuine priority. The measures proposed have frequently been provisional, and have ultimately had little effect on demographic trends. Figures now available fully corroborate the pessimistic projections concerning Russia's demographic development which researchers had presented at the onset of the previous decade.

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DIFFICULT 'ALLY' Belarus in Russia's foreign policy
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DIFFICULT 'ALLY' Belarus in Russia's foreign policy

Author(s): Wojciech Konończuk / Language(s): English,Polish

The current study consists of five chapters. The first chapter offers a brief presentation of Belarus' significance and position in Russian policy. The second analyses the development of Russian-Belarusian political relations, first of all the establishment of the Union State, Belarus' position in Russian domestic policy and Russia's influence on Belarusian policy. The third chapter presents bilateral economic relations, primarily energy issues. The fourth chapter describes the state and perspectives of military cooperation between the two states. The fifth chapter presents conclusions, where the author attempts to define the essence of the ongoing re-evaluation in Russian-Belarusian relations and to project their future model.

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