Series:PISM Strategic File

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№83: Schengen’s Future in Light of the Refugee Crisis

№83: Schengen’s Future in Light of the Refugee Crisis

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; border security; refugee crisis; migrations; EU immigrants; EU internal borders; Schengen zone;

The EU actions to secure the border between Greece and Turkey in order to restrain the flow of migrants face several limitations. In this light, the increased and uncontrolled flow of immigrants into the EU has prompted some Member States to call for restoring EU internal borders up to two years. This solution does not mean dismantling the Schengen zone, but modification of Schengen for security reasons, which would not threaten the European project.

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№82: Universal Utopia: Weighing the Reasons for the Appeal of the Islamic State

№82: Universal Utopia: Weighing the Reasons for the Appeal of the Islamic State

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Keywords: Islamic State; Jihadism; radicalism; violence; Middle East; ISIS; ISIS supporters; universal utopia;

Jihadism may be exclusively associated with the Muslim culture as a term and concept, but failing to see its universal, cross-cultural dimension impairs domestic and international policy considerations. This radical utopia serves as a global magnet for anti-systemism rather than just attracting religious locals in the Middle East. European countries need to structure their policy toward ISIS carefully, so that they do not become the frontline soldiers in the fight against this utopia and, in doing so, tie the rope around their necks at home. This is especially true as, globally and in the long term, the number of potential supporters for ISIS is likely to grow.

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№81: China’s Security Activities Extend beyond Asia

№81: China’s Security Activities Extend beyond Asia

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English

Keywords: People’s Republic of China; Asia; security activities; military strategy; navy; air forces; fighting terrorism;

China’s increasing global engagement requires an adjustment of the security mindset and new securityrelated instruments to safeguard against expanding Chinese interests overseas. Under Xi Jinping, the PRC has modified its military strategy, highlighting a new dimension of security threats (e.g., cyberspace), paying more attention to the country’s navy and air forces and in developing capabilities to win information wars along with centralising decision-making. Under these circumstances, China’s security activities extend beyond Asia and may lead to tension or even conflicts. But there are also opportunities. The PRC’s growing interests in Europe, Africa and the Middle East mean the EU may be able to cooperate with China on such security issues as the refugee crisis and fighting terrorism.

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№80: Germany’s Marriage to Austerity: Little Chance of a Quick Divorce

№80: Germany’s Marriage to Austerity: Little Chance of a Quick Divorce

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Eurozone; budget cuts; reduction in wages; economic policy; economic stability; Euro-scepticism;

The German government’s belief that the best recipe for return to growth in the euro area is a combination of budget cuts and reductions in wages is one that is faced with constant, if not rising scepticism in Europe. However, hopes that Berlin will drop its austerity approach should be kept in check. The country’s economic culture, doctrine, form of capitalism, as well as economic interests all speak to the policy’s durability than its quick departure.

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№79: Eurozone Enlargement Frozen: The Deepening Crevasse between Central Europe and the EU

№79: Eurozone Enlargement Frozen: The Deepening Crevasse between Central Europe and the EU

Author(s): Dariusz Kałan,Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Central Europe; European Union; Eurozone; Eurozone enlargement;

As of 2015, the eurozone has been the same for a long time. Central European “pre-ins” will not join the eurozone quickly because some simply are not willing and others are unable to do so. The resulting friction not only will impact the economic situation of both the existing members and “pre-ins” but also will produce tensions in the other fields, eventually leading to a negative state of division between the sceptical newcomers and the better-integrated Old Europe.

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№78: Time to Put Hungary on the EU’s Refugee Agenda

№78: Time to Put Hungary on the EU’s Refugee Agenda

Author(s): Anita Sobják / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; Hungary; refugee crisis; asylum seekers; security policy; crisis management;

Paradoxically, there is both a real crisis and a false alarm in Hungary when it comes to refugees. Yet, the first is over-shadowed by the second because the government’s campaign is mistakenly targeted at all immigrants, without regard to asylum seekers. This not only limits efforts invested in effective crisis management measures but also produces long-term harm in social attitudes towards foreigners. At the same time, the Hungarian claims for more attention and support from the EU are legitimate. If the debate in Brussels continues to be limited only to Italy and Greece, the EU will tacitly allow the situation along the Balkans route to worsen, with consequences for the whole Union.

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№77: The Labours of HR Federica Mogherini: Her Pursuit of a Strategy and Effectiveness

№77: The Labours of HR Federica Mogherini: Her Pursuit of a Strategy and Effectiveness

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: High Representative Federica Mogherini; European Union; EU foreign policy; Member States support;

High Representative Federica Mogherini seems to be struggling with her role. With limited scope to be involved in major EU policy dossiers, she has focused on improving the institutional and strategic basis for fulfilling her tasks. Nevertheless, if she does not manage to contribute to any of the most urgent political questions of EU foreign policy and capitalise on Member State support for relevant actions, her term may diminish the significance of the High Representative.

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№57: Border in Schengen times: opportunities and challenges of Polish-Czech cross-border cooperation

№57: Granica w czasach Schengen: szanse i wyzwania polsko-czeskiej współpracy transgranicznej

Author(s): Vít Dostál,Dariusz Kałan / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Schengen zone; Polish-Czech border; security; cross-border cooperation; international relations;

Chociaż tereny przy granicy Polski i Czech charakteryzują się podobnym poziomem rozwoju gospodarczego oraz bliskością kulturową i językową, wciąż istnieją liczne ograniczenia, które utrudniają porozumienie między obydwoma sąsiadami. Problemem są nie tylko bariery infrastrukturalne, ale także podziały natury mentalnej i historycznej. Eksperci Polskiego Instytutu Spraw Międzynarodowych i czeskiego Stowarzyszenia Spraw Międzynarodowych, którzy przeanalizowali najważniejsze szanse i wyzwania związane z dialogiem transgranicznym, sugerują większe niż do tej pory zaangaŻowanie władz centralnych i lokalnych w przełamywanie barier między krajami.

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№57: Border in Schengen times: opportunities and challenges of Polish-Czech cross-border cooperation

№57: Hranice v dobách Schengenu: příležitosti a výzvy česko-polské přeshraniční spolupráce

Author(s): Vít Dostál,Dariusz Kałan / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: Schengen zone; Polish-Czech border; security; cross-border cooperation; international relations;

Ačkoli se území podél hranic Polska a České republiky vyznačuje podobnou úrovní hospodářského rozvoje a kulturní a jazykovou blízkostí, stále existují četná omezení, která brání dohodě mezi oběma sousedy. Problémem nejsou pouze překážky v oblasti infrastruktury, ale také odlišná mentalita či výklad dějinných událostí. Experti Polského institutu pro mezinárodní otázky (PISM) a Asociace pro mezinárodní otázky (AMO), kteří analyzovali nejdůležitější příležitosti a výzvy spojené s přeshraničním dialogem, naznačují, že odhodlání ústředních a místních orgánů zapojit se do překonávání bariér mezi zeměmi může být větší než doposud.

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№56: NATO Narrows Military Gap on Its Eastern Flank

№56: NATO Narrows Military Gap on Its Eastern Flank

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; eastern flank; security gaps; security threats; Russian annexation of Crimea;

The decisions taken during the NATO summit in Wales will partially fill the security gaps on NATO’s eastern flank. The alliance will be better prepared for a number of traditional and asymmetric threats, emanating from Russia, against its members. However, the alliance has no answer for the strategic change caused by annexation of Crimea and possible dismemberment of the rest of Ukraine. NATO will also remain vulnerable to attempts to undermine its credibility—a path Russia may embark upon in pursuit of its broader strategic goals.

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№55: Out on the Edge Instead of Here in the Middle: The Four Reasons Why Britain Can’t Resolve Its Relations with the EU

№55: Out on the Edge Instead of Here in the Middle: The Four Reasons Why Britain Can’t Resolve Its Relations with the EU

Author(s): Roderick Parkes,Julian Rappold / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; Great Britain; EU-British relations; economic crisis; Brexit; British EU membership referendum; geopolitics;

Europe’s economic crisis has further damaged Britain’s already difficult relationship with the EU. While most Member States seek a deepening of Europe’s political and financial ties, London is trying to recover its scope for independent action, ordering a review of the EU’s competencies and mooting a membership referendum in 2017. The reasons are rooted in Britain’s historical experience of international relations, which persists in the thinking of the main UK-wide parties. In their understanding, Britain’s political trajectory and its geopolitical position are a boon, and not things to be modified through integration with neighbours. More than ever, London views the EU as an obstacle rather than a tool. Awareness of the UK’s specific attitude towards regionalism may offer room for compromise.

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№54: Russian Conservative Reawakening

№54: Russian Conservative Reawakening

Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian Federation; Russian conservatism; President Vladimir Putin; international relations; diplomacy;

Conservatism has re-emerged in Russian political discourse. It was largely employed by President Vladimir Putin to re-assert himself on the domestic stage in the volatile post-election political environment in 2011–2012 and later to legitimise asymmetrical warfare against Ukraine. However, the conservative upsurge threatens the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia’s other neighbours as well. Moreover, it represents a normative challenge for the EU, and one that requires a powerful answer based on a renewed long-term strategy towards Russia. Not the least, while helping President Putin hold onto power, the conservative turn poisons Russian society, undermines the country’s economy and isolates Russia from the rest of world.

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№53: Linking National and European Governance: Lessons for Poland and Norway

№53: Linking National and European Governance: Lessons for Poland and Norway

Author(s): Jakub Godzimirski,Agata Gostyńska,Pernille Rieker,Marta Stormowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; national and European governance; multilevel system;

Influencing the EU’s governance poses both a challenge and an opportunity to mid-size countries like Poland and Norway. As an analytical approach, “experimentalist governance”—with its focus on the utility of learning in a multilevel system—should offer both countries clues about influencing the European regime. Yet, the relevance of the theory to policy areas of most interest to both countries— security, energy and migration—remains unclear. As part of the GoodGov project, this paper assesses the applicability of experimentalist learning to these three fields and highlights the need for both countries to strengthen horizontal cooperation with state and non-state actors if they are to exploit it.

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№52: V4–Latin America and the Caribbean States: New Partners?

№52: V4–Latin America and the Caribbean States: New Partners?

Author(s): Kinga Brudzińska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Visegrad Group V4; Latin America; Caribbean State; economic cooperation; international trade; diplomacy;

In a crisis-hit and multipolar world, non-traditional partners have started to partner up. For the V4 and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) states, renewed interest in the economic sphere has not translated yet into an expansion of bilateral relations in other areas. To intensify cooperation, the V4 countries could think on increasing political dialogue with specific countries (e.g., Brazil, Mexico) or subregional groupings (e.g., Mercosur or the Pacific Alliance) and invest more in “track-two” diplomacy, which is generally a low-cost but high-return investment. The prospects for further intensification of relations suggest the dynamically developing LAC countries are potentially interesting partners for political, economic and scientific cooperation for members of the V4.

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№51: Careful What You Wish For: Nuclear Reductions and Conventional Deterrence in Europe after Crimea

№51: Careful What You Wish For: Nuclear Reductions and Conventional Deterrence in Europe after Crimea

Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; Russian annexation of Crimea; nuclear reductions; nuclear weapons; Russian Federation; European security;

As NATO contemplates changes in its deterrence posture amid Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, questions regarding the relationship between the Alliance’s nuclear and conventional dimensions have gained importance. Some experts propose that the Allies should spend their scarce funds on conventional instruments of deterrence rather than on the U.S. nuclear weapons based in Europe. Still, the suggested shift of emphasis from nuclear to conventional would not be that easy to implement. Even with U.S. nuclear weapons removed from Europe, strengthening conventional deterrence in parallel could result in Russia increasing its reliance on its own nuclear weapons and bringing them closer to Alliance territory, further destabilising European security. Therefore, NATO should avoid making radical changes in its nuclear posture and concentrate on a calibrated beef-up of its nonnuclear presence along the eastern flank.

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№50: Zakarpattia: A New Powder Keg in Ukraine?

№50: Zakarpattia: A New Powder Keg in Ukraine?

Author(s): Dariusz Kałan / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Zakarpattia region; Crimea; Russian influence; separatism; region’s destabilization;

Some features of Ukraine’s southwestern Zakarpattia Oblast—geographical exclusivity, poor historical links with Ukrainian statehood, independence of local politicians, and ethnic groups’ aspirations for autonomy—could suggest similarities to Crimea. However, a key factor that rules out a repeat of the Crimean scenario is the limited influence of Russia in the oblast. It does not mean that the region is not exposed to any decentralization movements. It seems that now the biggest challenge to the central government in Kyiv regarding Zakarpattia are the ambitions of local elites who have both sufficient financial independence and political tools in the form of non-regulated Hungarian and Ruthenian issues to take part, in the most pessimistic assumption, in the region’s destabilization.

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№49: Towards a More Energy Independent EU: Exploiting Indigenous Potential in the Gas Sector

№49: Towards a More Energy Independent EU: Exploiting Indigenous Potential in the Gas Sector

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; energy independence; gas sector; energy policy; Russian gas supplies; energy security;

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis has triggered anxiety in the EU over the stability of gas imports from its main supplier, Russia. Improving the EU’s self-sufficiency in terms of energy has already been indicated in the recent European Energy Security Strategy (EESS). Therefore, the EU should realise that it must not only diversify its gas supplies sources, but also exploit indigenous energy sources and develop up to date gas technologies. In the longer term, these efforts could contribute visibly to the EU’s energy security, and to its economic competitiveness, but they do require significant financial investment and firm commitment.

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№48: Governance in Norway and Poland: Can Unequal Partners Learn Anything from Each Other?

№48: Governance in Norway and Poland: Can Unequal Partners Learn Anything from Each Other?

Author(s): Ole Jacob Sending / Language(s): English

Keywords: Norway; Poland; governance; security; energy; migration; GoodGov Project; experience in governance;

Poland and Norway are unequal partners when it comes to governance and the management of issues such as security, migration and energy. One still ranks relatively low according to good governance indicators, having had to reinvent its whole system of government following the fall of communism; the other ranks high. One has spent two decades adapting to the EU’s rules; the other remains outside that framework but decided to sign an agreement on the European Economic Area that has made it a quasi-member without direct access to decision-making bodies. At the same time, the hierarchy—an element of inequality—hinders the learning process between the countries. Can Poland and Norway learn anything from each other? This paper, which sets out some of the thinking underpinning the GoodGov project, provides some answers. Following a brief review of the literature on policy learning, it identifies “experimentalist governance” as the model best suited to the two countries, before closing with some practical remarks about how such a model might look.

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№47: Brazil: A Giant Waking Up on the Inside

№47: Brazil: A Giant Waking Up on the Inside

Author(s): Kinga Brudzińska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Brazil; mass protests; economic policy; economic development; international trade; foreign policy;

The Football World Cup may be an event for the global audience to celebrate, but not all Brazilians find it that entertaining. The mass protests demonstrating society’s dissatisfaction that began last year under the slogan “The Giant Woke Up” and Brazil’s economic slowdown persist. Despite the country’s outstanding economic prosperity and social progress in the recent years, Brazil has not yet been able to raise its standing on the international stage. Moreover, Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff’s limited interest in foreign policy, and her centralising leadership, especially ahead of the October presidential election, have turned Brazil into a far more hesitant and less global player than was the case under her two predecessors.

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№46: Split Three Ways on Ukraine: Turkey in a Changing Regional Order

№46: Split Three Ways on Ukraine: Turkey in a Changing Regional Order

Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian Federation; Ukraine; Turkey; regional order; Russian annexation of Crimea; security issues; new conflicts; NATO;

With its low-level involvement in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Ankara repeated its customary formula of refraining from disrupting relations with Moscow, but also sought to maximise the benefits from its position, in order to recover its declining power. Yet this is not a voluntary strategy, so much as an effort by Turkey to make the best of a bad hand. The crisis between Russia and the West affects Turkey’s security concerns, economic interests and wider domestic and foreign policy ambitions. Although non-involvement has so far carried few direct costs, Turkey needs to leverage its low-profile position, not least to ensure NATO solidarity, and indeed might soften its position in internal NATO debates. And yet this might in turn create a new conflict of interests: Turkey needs to maintain its soft power capacities, not least in order to hook into the EU, while the EU needs to deepen Turkey’s integration in order to develop a cohesive answer to the new circumstances.

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