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Series:IFIMES Research Papers

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Putin’s War - 2
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Putin’s War - 2

Putin’s War - 2

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; Vladimir Putin; war; conflict; politics;

The past ten days has seen an intensification of the war in Ukraine, with over 1½ million Ukrainians having fled their homes and crossed the border to sanctuary in neighbouring countries of Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin says it is not a war or invasion, but just a cleansing of a corrupt, neo-Nazi government of drug addicts, and if any Russian dissent they are liable to be punished and some of those caught are being jailed with unwarranted stiff sentences. Several thousand Russian citizens have joined with those of other countries to protest and risked their being arrested. Who is Putin kidding? He is a rat in a tight corner and just as or more dangerous. Who is going to stop his nonsense? The western countries? His own people?

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Ukraine as Biden’s Sacrificed Pawn: A Mismanagement under the Declining U.S. Hegemony
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Ukraine as Biden’s Sacrificed Pawn: A Mismanagement under the Declining U.S. Hegemony

Ukraine as Biden’s Sacrificed Pawn: A Mismanagement under the Declining U.S. Hegemony

Author(s): Masahiro Matsumura / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; USA; Biden; military policy; security;

With its swift and full-scale invasion from three fronts into Ukraine, Russia is turning the tables on the U.S.-led West by controlling the strategic buffer state. The change will likely be a worst outcome for the Ukrainians, though some geopolitical adjustment is inevitable in the not-so-distant future as a consequence of the evolving grand power shift consequent on conspicuous U.S. hegemonic decline. By achieving an overwhelming military victory, Russia will put Ukraine tightly in its orbit, probably, through a pro-Russian regime change involving external reorientation from the West to Russia. This will probably necessitate Ukraine to be semi-sovereign thorough demilitarization and neutralization, including complete elimination of the potential for nuclear armament[2].

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Putin’s War - 3
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Putin’s War - 3

Putin’s War - 3

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; Vladimir Putin; military policy;

Putin’s war is in its 4th week and no end in sight, although the protagonists have agreed to talk again. Meanwhile, the people flee the country to safety, the count being over 3.0 million to date, with Poland generously opening their country to more than half the number. Sanctions are getting heavier, the oligarchs are being pursued more rigorously for their ill-gotten gains, but it is said that Vladimir Putin himself is worth $200 billion, with a significant amount of this probably in a more stable currency than the rouble. Whatever, he personally is cushioned from the pain he inflicts on his own people as well as the Ukrainians, whose country he is devastating because they won’t behave as he tells them. The Russian people hear largely what he wants them to hear through State-controlled outlets, because he has shut down all the free media outlets, except what the more tech-savvy, generally younger people can obtain through their mobiles. Shades of ‘1984’. It is not so long since the nearby East European countries can easily forget the stultifying hand of the Soviet era from which even some Russian people are trying to flee.

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Environmentally forced migrations in the European policy framework
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Environmentally forced migrations in the European policy framework

Environmentally forced migrations in the European policy framework

Author(s): Anna Lia Maria Soddu / Language(s): English

Keywords: European policy; migration; environment; forced migrations;

“Use your own property in such a way that you do not injure that of another”. This maxim[2], regarding a limitation to states' sovereignty, incorporates a cardinal principle enshrined in both the Civil and Common Law systems, and more broadly, in the customary international law. This limitation, also called “the principle of good neighbourliness” in international environmental law, applies to activities within a state territory that may harm other states. The principle places on states two types of erga omnes obligations: the first is the positive obligation of due diligence (behaving as a bonus paterfamilias in Roman law), the second is a negative obligation not to cause environmental harm, or as John Stuart Mill would call it: the "harm principle". A liability ex delicto would arise as a legal consequence in the case of transboundary environmental harm, such as climate change. We could ask then to what extent individuals and institutions must be held responsible for climate change and its consequences, among them migration. A reasonable approach would be to the extent they causally contributed to the problem. However, the backwards-looking responsibility sometimes excuses agents' actions that were not entirely voluntary, as Aristotle already argued in his Ἠθικὰ Νικομάχεια[3].

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2022 Ukraine: Is a new and different world order being created?
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2022 Ukraine: Is a new and different world order being created?

2022 Ukraine: Is a new and different world order being created?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; 2022; Russia; war; global situation;

Europe is faced with yet another crisis that reminds of the horrors of the two world wars. The consequences of the war ravaging the Eastern part of the European continent, will not be limited only to the region, but will have ramifications on the rest of the world as well. Russia started the war with Ukraine after a number of phases of oscillations and conflicts in their relations since the fall of the Soviet Union (USSR) in 1990. Relations between the two countries culminated at various levels and erupted with the Russian military intervention.

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Ukraine in the third world war in pieces
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Ukraine in the third world war in pieces

Ukraine in the third world war in pieces

Author(s): Emanuel Pietrobon,Juan Martin G. Cabañas / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; 2022; war; world situation;

Ukraine is a battlefield and also a negotiating table. An area of dispute of the “Clash of Civilizations” predicted by Samuel Huntington in the near but distant 1996. Ukraine is where it all ends and starts. It’s where Eurasianism ends (the dream of a Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok) and is where the new chapter of the perpetuum bellum begins between the extremes of the West: North America and Russia. And it is, above all, a key theatre of operations of the “Third World War in pieces”.

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Putin’s War - 4
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Putin’s War - 4

Putin’s War - 4

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; Vladimir Putin; war; 2022;

Putin’s war is one month old and entered the second. Talks are taking place but there are no substantive agreements. Putin does not mind as long as he can keep weakening the Ukrainian resolve, which is more and more unlikely as the days pass. He has to prove to the Russian people that the invasion was worthwhile and he has extended and secured the borders against any western aggression, a figment of his imagination. This is despite the fact that he started the current war and destruction and there was no sign of threat from the west.

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2022 Serbia: Elections in the shadow of pressures, Ukraine crisis and Kosovo
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2022 Serbia: Elections in the shadow of pressures, Ukraine crisis and Kosovo

2022 Serbia: Elections in the shadow of pressures, Ukraine crisis and Kosovo

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: Serbia; Kosovo; Ukraine; crisis; politics; elections;

In the Republic of Serbia, regular presidential, extraordinary parliamentarian and regular local elections for the capital of Belgrade and 12 municipalities are scheduled to take place on 3 April 2022. At the parliamentary elections, 250 representatives will be elected for the Republic of Serbia National Assembly using the system of proportional-representation. There are 6,501,689 registered voters who will be able to vote at 8,255 polling stations.

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Putin’s War
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Putin’s War

Putin’s War

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; Vladimir Putin; foreign policy; military policy;

People across the world have been shocked by the happenings in Ukraine. A glance at all of the morning newspapers had the events there as the main headline, with Vladimir Putin, the Russian President’s name appearing prominently, Russia seldom. The television coverage is extensive. When the Swedish Vikings, who were known as the Rus, were ‘invited’ to put some governing stability into the region, in a comparatively short time, some twelve hundred years ago, Kyiv, after a few decades, became the capital. It was ideally situated for the Rus longboats, being on the River Dnieper coming from the Baltic. An early strong ruler was called Vladimir.

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2022 Elections in Serbia: Yet another attempt of “assassination of Serbia”?
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2022 Elections in Serbia: Yet another attempt of “assassination of Serbia”?

2022 Elections in Serbia: Yet another attempt of “assassination of Serbia”?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: Serbia; politics; elections; president; parliament; local elections; 2022;

In the Republic of Serbia, regular presidential elections, extraordinary parliamentary elections and regular local elections for the capital of Belgrade and 12 towns and municipalities are scheduled to take place on 3 April 2022. At the parliamentary elections, according to the proportionate system, 250 representatives of the people will be elected for the Republic of Serbia National Assembly. Around 6.6 million registered voters are entitled to vote. On Kosovo, which Serbia still considers its autonomous province, pursuant to its current Constitution, the parliamentary elections will be held with the assistance of the international community and in the areas where the Serbs live. It should not be forgotten that the Serbs have entered Kosovo institutions under the condition that they be allowed to vote on Kosovo at all elections organized in Serbia. If the Kosovo Serbs are not allowed to vote at elections organized in Serbia, Serb political representatives could withdraw from Kosovo institutions or Serbs could decide not to participate at the next elections on Kosovo.

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Handling the Ukraine Crisis: A Geopolitical Perspective
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Handling the Ukraine Crisis: A Geopolitical Perspective

Handling the Ukraine Crisis: A Geopolitical Perspective

Author(s): Masahiro Matsumura / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; conflict; crisis; war; NATO; security; geopolitics;

With the Ukraine crisis increasingly acute, there is growing danger of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, involving a significant possibility of escalating into a full-scale war between Russian and the NATO. At the core of the crisis is how to strike an agreement on durable geopolitical order to which Ukraine is central as a crucial strategic buffer between Europe and the Eurasia, or between a peninsula and a landmass. Thus, prescribing a geopolitical settlement is more necessary than ever.

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Color revolution in Kazakhstan 2022
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Color revolution in Kazakhstan 2022

Color revolution in Kazakhstan 2022

Author(s): Konstantin Sergeevich Strigunov,Andrey Viktorovich Manoilo / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kazakhstan; 2022; color revolution; security;

Events of the first decade of new 2022 year in Kazakhstan clearly showed not only that the power of systemic social and political destabilizing has not extinguished yet, but also that such destructive processes got new features tailored to the country, where they have been launched. It should be noted that the insurrection in Kazakhstan was triggered, like in some countries before, by actions of the public authorities, which doubled the prices for gas being a popular fuel in Kazakhstan, that served both as lighter and detonator for the future bloody bacchanalia.

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Of Health and Nuclear Holocaust (Intentionality, Directionality and Outcome)
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Of Health and Nuclear Holocaust (Intentionality, Directionality and Outcome)

Of Health and Nuclear Holocaust (Intentionality, Directionality and Outcome)

Author(s): Anis H. Bajrektarević / Language(s): English

Keywords: Human Rights; health; politics; economy; crisis;

Back to the pre-Christmas days of 2019, I wrote a short text about the Artificial Intelligence (AI) and our careless joy of unselective deployment of this technology that might irreversibly change social fabrics like never before in history of humankind. Under the title “Future filled with empty choices – Tomorrow (n)ever AI-ies” the text soon after appeared in the Brussels-based New Europe and from there was taken to different outlets all over. Good old pre-Corona times.

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IFIMES II: Population and pollution and urbanisation
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IFIMES II: Population and pollution and urbanisation

IFIMES II: Population and pollution and urbanisation

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

Keywords: population; pollution; urbanisation; growth;

This article looks at the population growth with time and how this has impacted on man’s endeavours. The population numbers grew slowly but steadily from many centuries before the 1960s, when it took a sudden acceleration from 3 billion over the next 50 years to today’s level of over 8+ billion. The reason is twofold; people living longer, due to advances in medical science, as well as having more children. It is expected to rise further to approximately 10.5 billion by mid-century and slowly decline thereafter to be about 9 billion by the turn of the century.

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2022 Bosnia and Herzegovina: From “non-paper” to crawling war
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2022 Bosnia and Herzegovina: From “non-paper” to crawling war

2022 Bosnia and Herzegovina: From “non-paper” to crawling war

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: 2022; BiH; politics; crisis; OHR; genocide; criminal law;

The political crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina is not a consequence of the decision[2] by the then High Representative in BiH (OHR) Valentin Inzko on amendments to the BiH Criminal Law criminalizing and sanctioning negation of genocide but a result of carefully and long planned activities primarily by the Serb Member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina Milorad Dodik (SNSD) and the President of the Croatian Democratic Union Dragan Čović (HDZBiH), aimed at dissolution of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina. For the purposes of fulfillment of their goal, through the European People’s Party (EPP) and radical right-wing political circles in Europe and by using substantial funds originating from crime and corruption, they established contacts and ensured support and assistance of neighboring countries. It is expected that the current High Representative in BiH Christian Schmidt will adopt a decision banning persons convicted for war crimes and crime of genocide to engage in public life and stripping them of their civic rights (ban to run and vote in elections) which would prevent from holding a public office and being present in public life. Such a decision would lower the tensions in BiH and stop further humiliation and insults of the victims of war.

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2022 Serbia: Referendum – Chance for a turning point in judiciary
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2022 Serbia: Referendum – Chance for a turning point in judiciary

2022 Serbia: Referendum – Chance for a turning point in judiciary

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: Serbia; 2022; Referendum; Constitution; judiciary; changes; EU;

Serbia will hold a referendum on constitutional changes in the area of judiciary on 16 January 2022. The consitutional changes, as a prerequisite for reforms within the framework of the EU integration process, are related to the selection of judges and prosecutors. The changes should provide for independence of the judiciary and one of the conditions for reforms in the area of rule of law, which so far have impeded the progress of Serbia in the negotiations within the framework of EU integration. The referendum question reads: “Are you in favour of confirming the act on changing the Constitution of the Republic of Serbia?”

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2022 Open Balkan: One voice and an opportunity for all
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2022 Open Balkan: One voice and an opportunity for all

2022 Open Balkan: One voice and an opportunity for all

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: 2022; Open Balkan; Western Balkans; EU;

In early October 2021, during the Slovenian presidency of the European Union (EU) an unsuccessful EU-Western Balkans countries summit was organized in Brdo pri Kranju, within the framework of strategic cooperation of the EU with the Western Balkans. The summit reaffirmed the words of the Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić (SNS) from the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, when he said that the EU “was a fairytale on paper” and underscored that “there is no great international or European solidarity.” Lack of interest of the EU in enlargement prompted the leaders of the Western Balkans countries to think about the future and seek optimal solutions for the complex situation. Recognizing the situation for the Balkan countries with respect to enlargement of the EU to the Western Balkans, three leaders, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, North Macedonian Prime Minister Zoran Zaev (SDSM) and Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama (PS) decided in October 2019 to “take destiny in their own hands” and launched a visionary idea of establishment of a “mini Schengen.” In late July 2021, this idea evolved into a regional initiative “Open Balkan.” The initiative is no substitute for membership in the EU, but a path to accelerated membership and utilization of the existing but insufficiently used potential, which will facilitate economic prosperity.

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2021 Bosnia and Herzegovina: Most brutal attack on truth about Holocaust in XXI century directed and implemented by Milorad Dodik (SNSD) and Dragan Čović (HDZ)
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2021 Bosnia and Herzegovina: Most brutal attack on truth about Holocaust in XXI century directed and implemented by Milorad Dodik (SNSD) and Dragan Čović (HDZ)

2021 Bosnia and Herzegovina: Most brutal attack on truth about Holocaust in XXI century directed and implemented by Milorad Dodik (SNSD) and Dragan Čović (HDZ)

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: 2021; BiH; SNSD; HDZ; politics; Holocaust; genocide; criminal law;

Two leading political parties in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) and the Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZBiH), which pretend to represent the interests of the Serb and Croat peoples in BiH in the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina proposed conclusions and voted on the annulment of the BiH Law[2] on prohibition of denial of Holocaust and genocide. The decision is to be agreed at the level of the Collegium of the House of Peoples and will probably not be adopted. This means that the proposal of conclusions will be returned to the House of Peoples for a vote. A conclusion is adopted, if it is supported by more than half the delegates and if 2/3 of delegates from one entity do not vote against it. The decision already has the support of delegates from Republika Srpska, as all five delegates from the RS have voted in favor of the conclusions. However, when it comes to the Federation of BiH, the situation is different. If delegate Bariša Čolak attends the next session, the HDZBiH will have four delegates who will vote in favor of the conclusions, which is more than 1/3 (out of ten) delegates from the Federation of BiH, which implies that the Law will definitely be adopted. The Law[3] expressly outlaws denial of two international legal acquis. Specifically, it outlaws negation of judgments of the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and bans denial of Nurnberg[4] judgments against the Nazis. Although in the offered parliamentary conclusions for annulment, the SNSD and HDZ delegates attempted to “elaborate” the reasons for annulment, not at one single point did they refer to the annulment of the part of the Law that reads: “Whoever publicly condones, denies, grossly trivializes or tries to justify a crime of genocide, crimes against humanity or a war crime established by a final adjudication pursuant to the Charter of the International Military Tribunal appended to the London Agreement of 8 August 1945 or by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia or the International Criminal Court or a court in Bosnia and Herzegovina, directed against a group of persons or a member of such a group defined by reference to race, color, religion, descent or national or ethnic origin, when the conduct is carried out in a manner likely to incite to violence or hatred against such a group or a member of such a group, shall be punished by imprisonment for a term between six months and five years.” Namely, this is related to a premeditated and preconcerted action of European right-wing conservative and pro-fascist parties gathered around the so-called manifest of the “gathering of European Patriots”, who act in BiH through Milorad Dodik, SNSD President and Dragan Čović, HDZBiH President. The request and the vote in a national parliament for annulment of the law related to denial of judgments related to the Holocaust is the most brutal attack on the truth about the Holocaust in the XXI century.

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The Future of the EU: One-block or Two-block EU
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The Future of the EU: One-block or Two-block EU

The Future of the EU: One-block or Two-block EU

Author(s): Jožef Kunič / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; creation history; current situation;

The movement toward unification of Europe was undoubtedly a major event in the world history of twenty century, appealing to a free and united Europe through a link between States renouncing to their absolute sovereignty. After the Treaty of Rome (1957), when the common market was achieved, single market and monetary union was achieved by Treaty of Maastricht (1992), some borders between the member states were abolished by Schengen agreements (1985) finally the Lisbon treaty was signed (in 2007, entered into force in 2009). In the last 20 years, except some minor formal reforms, no adequate measures opened the way to reshaping of the Union. The necessity of reshaping was simply not strong enough.

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2021 Elections in Albania: Citizens against Mafia / Qytetarët kundër mafies
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2021 Elections in Albania: Citizens against Mafia / Qytetarët kundër mafies

2021 Elections in Albania: Citizens against Mafia / Qytetarët kundër mafies

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: Albania; 2021; elections; parliament; citizens; mafia;

On 25 April 2021, the tenth parliamentary elections since the democratic changes will take place in Albania. Once again the elections will be a confrontation between two leading coalitions. One is gathered around the Socialist Party (PS/S&D) and Prime Minister Edi Rama and the other is the opposition group led by the Democratic Party (PD/EPP) headed by Lulzim Basha, which includes the Movement for Socialist Integration (LSI) headed by Monika Kryemadhi. Some minor political parties will also participate in the elections.

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