Series:3 DCFTAs OP-ed

Future of Association Agreements in Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia: Local, European and Russian Factors

Future of Association Agreements in Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia: Local, European and Russian Factors

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Keywords: Association Agreements; NGOs; political class;

The output of the Association Agreements will always be low if political corruption is not overcome, while the electoral cycles do not yield parliamentary majorities and upright governments. It is essential for the reform process to be directed by those who aim not to obtain personal benefits, but to modernize the country and to bring this closer to the EU’s positive standards. // Both the EU and Russia have incentives and constraints that can influence the direction of the Association Agreements. Even if the European factor is beneficial to the reform process, this necessitates recalibration and uniformity in addressing similar problems in the three countries, like the oligarchic regimes and others. The Russian factor is disinterested in the functionality of the Association Agreements, but does not perceive these as a major danger as it sees how challenging, hesitating and dependent on the yet corrupt human factor the reforms are. // Internal players that do not take part in governance in Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia can guarantee a better implementation of the Agreements, but they necessitate protection and assistance from the European institutions. Without a robust civil society, independent mass media and free political opposition, the future of the Association Agreements is rather nebulous.

Ten forecasts for 2019: Reconfiguration of European Agenda in Moldova and the Rule of Law Crisis in EU

Ten forecasts for 2019: Reconfiguration of European Agenda in Moldova and the Rule of Law Crisis in EU

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Keywords: rule of law crisis; EU weakness; European Parliament;

The year 2019 will be crucial for Moldova’s democracy and European course and for the sustainability of the European project in general. If the DPM remains in power, it could review the European agenda if it forms a government with the PSRM or elements that separated themselves from this. Nevertheless, the European agenda will not be abandoned, also owing to a solid pro-EU opposition inside the future Parliament. // At European level, the representation of the Eurosceptical forces could grow at the level of the European Parliament, creating unfavorable perspectives for solidarity inside the EU over migration or the sanctions imposed against Russia. The rule of law crisis in more EU member states will be increasingly visible. // Romania and Bulgaria are on this “blacklist”. The chaos of the Brexit, eruption of the Eurosceptical forces and compromised presidency of Romania in the EU in the first half of 2019 will hamper the proper functioning of the European institutions. The oligarchic and kleptocratic interests inside the EU and its neighborhood, including in the Eastern Partnership and Moldova, will tend to profit from the EU’s weaknesses.

Towards a Wider Europe

Towards a Wider Europe

Author(s): Michael Emerson / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU-enlargement; Eastern Partnership;

Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine would like to find ways to reinforce their European integration ambitions, currently based on their Association Agreements and DCFTAs with the EU. Given the impasse over demands by these three states for 'membership perspectives', the question is whether there are other routes that could usefully by followed for the time being. Possible answers lead into a chain of linked issues concerning the future of the EU's neighbourhood policy and Eastern Partnership, andconditions for possible future enlargement (first of all for the Balkans). // There are some initiatives emerging on how possibly to reinforce the AA/DCFTAs. One track is to examine the scope for deeper sectoral policy integration in such areas as energy, digital, customs and justice cooperation, as advocated by Ukraine, to which might be added cyber defence.

Moldovan Elections: still between State Capture vs. Russian Influence

Moldovan Elections: still between State Capture vs. Russian Influence

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Keywords: democracy in Moldova;

Less than 1.5 million citizens voted to renew the legislative body of Moldova. This is only 49% of total number of voters or about 200.000 fewer votes compared to 2014. Neither the populist policies introduced by the government in 2018, nor the consultative referendum on reducing the size of the parliament that took place concomitantly with the elections, had much impact on stimulating higher participation.

The State of the Donbass

The State of the Donbass

Author(s): Nikolaus von Twickel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Eastern Ukraine; information warfare; Donetsk; Luhansk; People’s Republic;

The Donbass region of eastern Ukraine is among Europe’s most deadly modern battlefields on which more than 13,000 people have been killed since 2014. But it is also a propaganda war, where many shots are being fired not to kill somebody but send a message – not always across the frontline. And unlike other conflicts in eastern Europe, this one cannot be explained by regional ethnic or religious antagonisms. Tragically, the suffering people of Donbass happen to live at the wrong place at the wrong time.

Major Trends of Ukraine’s Exports in 2018 and Outlook for 2019

Major Trends of Ukraine’s Exports in 2018 and Outlook for 2019

Author(s): Veronika Movchan / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine-EU trade;

The year 2018 was a distinct year for Ukraine’s goods exports featuring several “never-before” statistical facts. On the one hand, the value and share of exports to the European Union reached their historic maximum, backed by the stimuluses provided by the DCFTA. According to the Ukrstat, Ukraine exported USD 20.2 bn to the EU, surpassing the previous peak registered in 2008, i.e. before the hardships of two economic crises and the occupation of the part of Ukraine’s territory. The share of the EU in total exports reached 43%, adding 1 percentage point compared to the previous year peak.

Moldova: The Struggles to build a post-electoral Coalition

Moldova: The Struggles to build a post-electoral Coalition

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Keywords: elections in Moldova; government-building Moldova; ACUM;

The Constitutional Court validated the mandates of the 101 new MPs (9 March, 2019), and the attention turns toward the formation of a viable coalition. The Democratic Party was the first to rush into negotiations on a future governing coalition. Led by the controversial oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc, the party seeks to build a common platform with the Bloc ACUM which presents itself as the truly democratic party. But the latter rejects any kind of cooperation with the Democrats - their political enemy. Meanwhile the Socialists, with 35 MPs and highest number of seats, refrained from direct talks with the Democrats on a coalition agreement, but now instead invited ACUM to negotiations.

Transnistria: DCFTA’s Implications for Foreign Trade

Transnistria: DCFTA’s Implications for Foreign Trade

Author(s): Vadim Gumene / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU-Moldova-DCFTA;EU-Transnistria;

The Association Agreement between the Republic of Moldova and European Union has major political, social and especially economic implications (mainly ist component of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). The economic side of it resulted in a completely new legal framework between the parties, which directly impacted the Transnistrian region. Initially Tiraspol did not show much interest in being part of the DCFTA, arguing that it would not be beneficial to the Transnistrian region’s economy.

Presidential Elections in Ukraine: preserving the pro-EU course?

Presidential Elections in Ukraine: preserving the pro-EU course?

Author(s): Artem Remizov / Language(s): English

Keywords: Volodymyr Zelenskyi; Petro Poroshenko; Yuliia Tymoshenko; Victor Yanukovych; Anatoliy Hrytsenko;

In less than two weeks, on March 31,2019, the Ukrainians will head to the polling stations to cast their vote for the country's next President. However, the winner would be announced only at the beginning of May since it is highly unlikely that any of the candidates would secure more than 50% of votes in the first round. The level of unpredictability of this year's elections in Ukraine is unprecedented. Out of 39 candidates included in a ballot, at least three seem to have the biggest chance to get into the second round and, consequently, win the presidential race.

Georgia-China FTA: Results of the First Year

Georgia-China FTA: Results of the First Year

Author(s): Tamara Kovziridze / Language(s): English

Keywords: Georgia-China FTA; EU-Georgia DCFTA;

The free trade agreement between Georgia and China has been in force since January 2018. Although one year is a short period to make any substantial conclusions about the first results, a very initial evaluation can still be made based on the recent trade and investment dynamics.

Ukraine before the second Round of the Presidential Elections

Ukraine before the second Round of the Presidential Elections

Author(s): Artem Remizov / Language(s): English

Keywords: Volodymyr Zelenskyi; Petro Poroshenko; Yulia Tymoshenko;

The voting day passed rather calmly, and observers have not reported major electoral fraud, stating that basic standards of free elections were safeguarded. Hopefully the same will apply to the second round on April 21. // The final result of the first round comes as no surprise since the polls had done a good job predicting the outcome, although the gap between the two leading candidates proved to be larger than it was expected. The convincing victor was the comedian and TV-producer Volodymyr Zelenskyi with 30.2% of votes against the incumbent president Petro Poroshenko, who secured only around 16%. Yet, Poroshenko stays in the game after eliminating one his major rivals, Yulia Tymoshenko (13.4%), who had directed her criticism mainly against Poroshenko while avoiding confronting Zelenskyi.

Ukraine-Israel FTA: New Trade Opportunities

Ukraine-Israel FTA: New Trade Opportunities

Author(s): Veronika Movchan / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine-Israel FTA;

In January 2019, Ukraine and Israel signed a free trade agreement (FTA), concluding more than five years of negotiations. Unlike the DCFTA with the EU covering a broad range of issues in trade in goods, services, capital flows and legal harmonisation, the agreement with Israel is a classic FTA. The cornerstone of the agreement is tariff liberalization in trade in goods.

Ukraine after the Presidential Elections

Ukraine after the Presidential Elections

Author(s): Artem Remizov / Language(s): English

Keywords: Volodymyr Zelenskyi;Petro Poroshenko;

According to the results of the national exit poll that came out after the closure of voting stations on April 21, Volodymyr Zelenskyi is set to become the sixth president of Ukraine. The comedian and TV producer won a landslide victory — 73% against 26% — in a run-off against the current incumbent Petro Poroshenko.

The Russian factor in Moldova’s Energy Insecurity

The Russian factor in Moldova’s Energy Insecurity

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Keywords: energy supply for Moldova;

A Moldova still struggles to overcome the various handicaps in its energy sector. The de-politicization of the regulatory agency, diversification of supply, and Russia’s monopolistic position, combine to maintain serious distortions in the energy sector and develop new ones. Fully-fledged, top-down liberalization of the energy market remains elusive, hurting the competitiveness of industry and conditions for the final consumer.

Can a Free Trade Agreement with China be suitable for Moldova?

Can a Free Trade Agreement with China be suitable for Moldova?

Author(s): Vadim Gumene / Language(s): English

Keywords: China-Moldova-FTA;

At the beginning of 2018, the Government of the Republic of Moldova started negotiations on a free trade agreement with China. According to the Moldovan authorities, this initiative will facilitate trade between the two countries, and also attract investments into the country’s main economic sectors. The Moldovan authorities have published estimates that Moldovan exports to China could increase by 39.85% and the gross domestic product could increase by 0.42%.

Prospective FTA between Georgia and India: Another Result of DCFTA?

Prospective FTA between Georgia and India: Another Result of DCFTA?

Author(s): Tamara Kovziridze / Language(s): English

Keywords: Georgia's economic relations; Georgie-EU-FTA;

Even though the EU-Georgia DCFTA has not yet had any substantial impact on trade and Georgia’s exports to the EU, it undoubtedly changed in a positive way Georgia’s prospective attractiveness as a trade and investment hub. After the entry into force of the EU-Georgia DCFTA in 2014, Georgia concluded further FTAs with EFTA, China and Hong Kong. The DCFTA increased Georgia’s potential attractiveness as a market where in principle its FTA partners can invest, produce and then export to the EU, taking advantage of tariff free trade as well as of comparatively attractive business environment in the country. The real benefits of these new FTAs in terms of trade and growth remain still to be seen, but Georgia continues to pursue actively its liberal trade policies and conclude more FTAs with the aim to broaden its market. The next big market after China is India, and exploratory talks are also envisaged with the CEFTA (Central European Free Trade Agreement) region and possibly Israel as well.

Three Dimensions of Risk to Visa Liberalization in Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine

Three Dimensions of Risk to Visa Liberalization in Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Keywords: visa liberalisation; Schengen;

The visa-free regime extended to Moldova in 2014 and to Ukraine and Georgia in 2017 has marked an important milestone in their relationships with the European Union. As a result, traveling to Europe has been eased and turned into an indispensable normality for citizens from the three countries, provided that they own biometric passports and follow the rules of stay. More than 2 million of Moldovans, representing more than 65% of the population, crossed the European borders more than 6 million times in 5 years. Out of 2 million Moldovans who enjoyed visa-free regime approx. 25% were youth between 26-35 years old. Over 300.000 Georgians or 8.1% of all citizens experienced the visa exemptions in the first 2 years of its implementation. In Ukraine, this number has reached 5.6% (2.5 million persons) out of 44 million citizens.

Moldova’s political Crisis: Overcoming the geopolitical puzzle and the "Captured State"

Moldova’s political Crisis: Overcoming the geopolitical puzzle and the "Captured State"

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Keywords: captured state; democracy in Moldova;

After almost three months from the validation of the results of the parliamentary elections (9 March 2019), the political situation in Moldova is rapidly developing new outlines, postponing the talks concerning the early elections however without canceling them for good. The sudden warming of relations between the Bloc ACUM and the Socialists is temporary and is due to the fear of early elections in the circumstances of a mixed voting system and the maintenance of the Democratic Party in power.

Surrender of the oligarchic regime, re-launching of European integration in Moldova and Russia’s agenda

Surrender of the oligarchic regime, re-launching of European integration in Moldova and Russia’s agenda

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Even if the oligarchic regime in Moldova successfully monopolized political power during almost four years, it managed to oppose the remodeling of the political landscape by the coalition between ACUM and the Party of Socialists (PSRM) for only a week (June 7-14, 2019). The costs for keeping power by uninterruptedly abusing the Constitution and the state institutions increased exponentially, damaging drastically the internal and external approval of the Democratic Party and ascribing already irreparable negative attributes to it. The unity of the international community supporting the legitimacy of the ACUM-PSRM government had an isolating effect on the Democratic leader, oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc. For the latter, the perpetuation and deepening of political crisis would have hampered the ensuring of safe withdrawal conditions, which he finally obtained to leave Moldova on June 14, 2019.

Georgia: An Unexpected Expected Crisis

Georgia: An Unexpected Expected Crisis

Author(s): Ghia Nodia / Language(s): English

In the evening of June 19th, I with two other experts took part in a talk-show on a Georgian TV channel. We all agreed that for the moment, the Georgian Dream (GD) party led by Bidzina Ivanishvili, a secretive plutocrat, looked all but impregnable in power and had good chances to win again in the next parliamentary elections in October 2020. Yes, it was losing popularity for being ineffective and increasingly autocratic. However, it benefitted from controlling all levers of power and weakness of the opposition. In November 2019, it used blatant vote-buying and alleged voter intimidation to help the candidate it supported, Salome Zurabishvili, to win presidential elections. What would have stopped it from doing the same again?