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EU Expert Missions to the Eastern Partnership Region: Time for Change

EU Expert Missions to the Eastern Partnership Region: Time for Change

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: Eastern Partnership; Armenia; Eastern Europe; European Union; Georgia; Moldova; neighbourhood policy; Ukraine

The EU pursues a number of advisory programmes in neighbouring countries with the aim to help their government administrations implement mutually agreed reforms. The experience of the Eastern Partnership countries shows these programmes face many limits. Although it is difficult for the EU to modernise public administration in this region, its advisory services might be improved by introducing more flexible procedures, multiannual training, and more logistical support.

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Export Promotion Agency: The Experience of Selected European Countries

Export Promotion Agency: The Experience of Selected European Countries

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: trade; Czech Republic; economy; Hungary; Poland; United Kingdom

To enhance the presence of Polish companies in international markets, a coherent and efficient system of government support is needed. Much of it can be through the Export Promotion Agency, which the Polish government plans to create. In this context, it is worth surveying the experience of other countries, including the UK, Hungary and Czech Republic, where this kind of institution already exists and adjust the solutions to be effective with Polish realities.

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Poroshenko’s Risky Play with Ukraine’s Government

Poroshenko’s Risky Play with Ukraine’s Government

Author(s): Piotr Kościński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Arseniy Yatsenyuk; domestic policy; Eastern Europe; government; Petro Poroshenko; political parties; Yulia Tymoshenko

The Ukrainian parliament on 16 February did not back a vote of no confidence in the government. Voting was conducted at the request of the two parties of the ruling coalition after sharp criticism by President Petro Poroshenko of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. Paradoxically, however, the government was able to remain in place mainly because, despite the criticism, a group of deputies in the president’s camp and some opposition members did not vote. After the vote, two parties left the coalition—Batkivshchyna and Samopomich, leaving the future of the cabinet in question. A larger power struggle not only could stop reforms in the country but carry the risk of large public protests, which would be dangerous for Ukraine.

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The Oligarchs Are Becoming Stronger in Ukraine

The Oligarchs Are Becoming Stronger in Ukraine

Author(s): Piotr Kościński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; domestic policy; Eastern Europe; government; Petro Poroshenko; society

Despite repeated attempts to undertake reforms aimed at increasing the transparency of the state, Ukraine remains a country in which oligarchs play a key and the negative role. They control a significant part of industry and the most important media. The most recent local elections showed that they are building their own political centres and creating new groups, and the vote of no confidence against Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s government reveals they also control part of parliament as well. The dispute between President Petro Poroshenko and leading oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, a businessman supporting him, is becoming increasingly evident. This can result in the destabilisation of the political scene, and in the long run lead to the oligarchic system becoming embedded. The EU should make support for Ukraine a priority, pushing above all for action over rhetoric in the fight against corruption (reform of the judiciary, the police and the public procurement system), and should monitor the actions of the authorities in Kyiv.

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The South Caucasus in the Shadow of the Russian-Turkish Crisis

The South Caucasus in the Shadow of the Russian-Turkish Crisis

Author(s): Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Keywords: Caucasus, Armenia; Azerbaijan; conflict; Georgia; Russia; Security; Syria; Turkey

The conflict between Turkey and Russia due to their contradictory interests in the Middle East deepens the division of the South Caucasus into two blocks. As a result, Turkey strengthens its political and economic cooperation with Georgia and Azerbaijan while Russia increases military cooperation with Armenia. This situation, although it poses security challenges, could paradoxically be beneficial for the Georgian and Azerbaijani economies, including through the development of trade with Turkey. The EU and Turkey should coordinate their policies towards the Caucasus, including issues such as frozen conflicts, regional economic integration and the development of energy projects.

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The Domino Effect: Impact of the Global Climate Agreement on Post-2020 EU Emissions Trading Scheme Reform

The Domino Effect: Impact of the Global Climate Agreement on Post-2020 EU Emissions Trading Scheme Reform

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Julia Michalak / Language(s): English

Keywords: energy and climate; climate; Europe; Poland

At the end of 2015 a landmark climate accord was adopted at the COP21 climate summit in Paris. The Paris Agreement may significantly impact the ongoing debate about the post-2020 reform of the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme, proposed by the European Commission in mid-2015. To reflect the Paris Agreement in the EU’s domestic policies, some Member States may advocate strengthening the Commission’s proposal. In such a scenario the Polish government should call for an increase of the Modernisation Fund and auction allowance redistribution rules, supporting energy transition in lower-income Member States.

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The Potential for Polish-Lithuanian Cooperation in Security

The Potential for Polish-Lithuanian Cooperation in Security

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Keywords: armed forces; Lithuania; Poland; Baltic Sea Region; Central Europe; international security; NATO; Russia; Security

Poland and Lithuania, regardless of tensions related to the situation of the Polish minority, are intensifying security sector cooperation. The main reason is the Ukraine-Russia conflict, which changed the geopolitical conditions in the region. A notable example of such cooperation is the creation of the Poland-Lithuania-Ukraine brigade, which will reach full operational capability in 2017. Poland and Lithuania also have common interests concerning the upcoming NATO summit in Warsaw, especially with regard to strengthening the Alliance's presence on the eastern flank. However, this will require the involvement of both countries in other dimensions of NATO activity.

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Poland’s Campaign for a Non-Permanent Seat on the UN Security Council

Poland’s Campaign for a Non-Permanent Seat on the UN Security Council

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: United Nations Security Council; Bulgaria; Central Europe; elections; international organisations; Poland; United Nations

Poland is bidding against Bulgaria for a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council in the 2018 to 2019 term. This position would allow Poland to influence the discussion on global security and potential risks as well as being an opportunity to promote Poland on the global scene. To win the non-permanent seat, Poland should intensify the campaign, build a cohesive image for international partners and prepare for more than one round of voting.

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EU Winter Gas Package: The Next Phase of the Struggle to Strengthen Energy Resilience

EU Winter Gas Package: The Next Phase of the Struggle to Strengthen Energy Resilience

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Witold Gruszczyński,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Keywords: gas; energetics; energy security; Europe; European Union; natural gas - LNG

In February 2016, the European Commission will present the Winter Gas Package, which is a real opportunity to strengthen the security of European gas consumers. The coming months will bring intense negotiations on essential details of documents that will determine the EU’s resilience to disruptions of gas supplies and influence the EU’s bargaining power in relation to third countries. The EC’s proposal contains several points included in Poland’s 2014 energy union concept, and hence, the Polish administration should be actively involved in shaping the contents of the package.

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Polish Local Government Attitudes towards the Refugee Crisis

Polish Local Government Attitudes towards the Refugee Crisis

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: local government; refugees; Migrations; Poland; society

Despite the many unknowns, including the date of arrival, funding for and characteristics of the refugees who will come to Poland in 2016 and 2017, it is certain that primary responsibility for their integration into Polish society will lie with local authorities. Key issues associated with this will be in the legal and funding areas, and regardless of when the refugees arrive, broad and swift inclusion of social partners and local government in preparations will maximise the chance that the integration process will run smoothly and in the interests of local communities and Poland as a whole.

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Russia’s Ambitions in Europe’s Nuclear Energy Sector: A Test of Credibility

Russia’s Ambitions in Europe’s Nuclear Energy Sector: A Test of Credibility

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Keywords: nuclear energy; Russia; energetics

For Rosatom, the Russian state nuclear company, exemplary cooperation with EU countries is crucial. Because the EU’s nuclear sector is well-structured, the use of Rosatom to influence the bloc geopolitically is limited, and thus its presence on the prestigious EU market primarily serves to construct a positive image of the company. EU Member States should ensure that the nuclear relationship with Russia is also characterised by reciprocity.

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The European Border and Coast Guard: Potentials and Risks

The European Border and Coast Guard: Potentials and Risks

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: borders; Europe; European Union; Migrations; Schengen Area

The establishment of an EU border service is a step towards community control of border management in the Schengen zone. Whilst such an arrangement seems beneficial in terms of increasing the efficiency of border control, it is controversial because it interferes with the rights of the Member States.

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The Historic Paris Climate Agreement and Its Significance for Poland and the EU

The Historic Paris Climate Agreement and Its Significance for Poland and the EU

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: climate; economy

On 12 December 2015 in Paris, and for the first time in almost 20 years, the world’s countries, some 195 in total, reached a brokered deal with the objective to prevent irreversible climate change. Two key provisions of the agreement are its global scope, requiring all 195 countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and the marked absence of an endpoint within the treaty. These provisions help create a system of coordination of global efforts against climate change, ending the EU’s isolation on the issue. This in turn will reduce the negative consequences of its climate change policy on the competitiveness of the overall European and Polish economies.

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New Phase in Russia’s Relations with Iran: Not Only Syria, Not Only Opportunism

New Phase in Russia’s Relations with Iran: Not Only Syria, Not Only Opportunism

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Iran; Russia; conflict; international security; Middle East; Security; Syria

The final nuclear deal between the P5+1 and Iran has not resulted in worsening relations or a renewal of the historical rivalry between Moscow and Tehran. Russia and Iran have common interests in and outside Syria, namely strengthening the areas of bilateral diplomatic, military and economic cooperation. The visit by Russia’s president to Iran and his participation in the Gas Exporting Countries Forum in Tehran on 23 November 2015, suggest a new phase in Russia’s relations with Iran, which, though, might have a negative impact on the interests of the West, Turkey and Arab countries.

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The Case of Rustavi-2 TV: Escalation of the Conflict between Government and Opposition in Georgia

The Case of Rustavi-2 TV: Escalation of the Conflict between Government and Opposition in Georgia

Author(s): Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Keywords: Georgia; Caucasus; domestic policy; elections; mass media; parliamentary elections

A series of court judgments relating to the ownership of private television station Rustavi-2 has led to an escalation of the conflict between the government and opposition in Georgia. For the opposition United National Movement (UNM), the rulings may mean restrictions on its freedom to present its views in media before parliamentary elections scheduled for the second half of 2016. On the other hand, by influencing the courts and media, the governing Georgian Dream is making the same mistakes that led to UNM’s loss of power. Without interfering in the dispute between the government and opposition, the EU should exert pressure on the authorities in Tbilisi to accelerate the reform of judiciary.

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Indonesia’s Potential as a Stronger Partner of Poland in Asia

Indonesia’s Potential as a Stronger Partner of Poland in Asia

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Indonesia; Asia and Pacific; economy; education

This year, Poland celebrates the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations with Indonesia, one of the rising powers in Asia, a stable democracy, and characterised by its high pace of economic growth. Although trade has grown in recent years, the potential of economic as well as political cooperation remains untapped. To improve this situation, enhanced cooperation on the provincial level can be effective, as Indonesia is highly decentralised. Moreover, a visit by high-level Polish officials in Indonesia would support Polish businesses seeking to enter this prospective, but difficult market.

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Revision of European Neighbourhood Policy: Half-Hearted Reform

Revision of European Neighbourhood Policy: Half-Hearted Reform

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: neighbourhood policy; Association Agreement; Europe, European Union; European Union foreign policy; Free Trade Agreement

Proposals to improve EU neighbourhood policy are insufficiently ambitious as they do not involve many improvements on the old approach. Implementation of these enhancements would require alignment of financial assistance with strategy goals and reform of the budget support mechanism. The EU should also help associated countries implement Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreements.

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Ukraine: A DCFTA after All

Ukraine: A DCFTA after All

Author(s): Piotr Kościński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Eastern Europe; economy; Free Trade Agreement; trade

The EU agreement with Ukraine on a free trade zone, or DCFTA, will come into force on 1 January 2016. The result, though, will not produce immediate economic benefits for Ukraine and will also carry the previously announced sanctions on Ukraine by Russia, including an embargo on food imports. In the long term, however, the DCFTA will allow Ukraine to accept the majority of the acquis communautaire and further its rapprochement with the EU, as well as to improve standards and the competitiveness of the economy. Ukrainian authorities need political and financial support from the EU during the first phase of the DCFTA’s implementation, especially in countering the Russian sanctions.

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Russian Foreign Fighters: Time for Syria?

Russian Foreign Fighters: Time for Syria?

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Syria

Foreign fighters have been successfully utilised by Russia during the conflict in Ukraine, where they formed a key element of the separatist forces. Due to Russia’s escalating involvement in Syria, and its Ukraine-based foreign fighters’ often and vocally professed desire to fight against the Islamic State, one could assume that Moscow, while officially denying rumours of being involved in ground operations in Syria, may not shy away from deploying such fighters there. However, this will carry risks far greater than those in Ukraine, and could yield negative consequences for Russia.

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Negotiating Challenges during the Paris Climate Conference

Negotiating Challenges during the Paris Climate Conference

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Paris Climate Conference; climate policy

On 30 November, world leaders will gather in Paris for the 21st Conference of the Parties to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, in the hope of reaching a new global deal. There is positive political momentum for an agreement on how to tackle climate change, but the pressure on negotiators is growing and the thorniest issues, such as financing, compliance, and long-term mitigation and adaptation targets are still to be addressed. For the EU, only an ambitious agreement at COP 21 would be beneficial, whereas for Poland, any world-wide agreement can bring short-term political and economic benefits.

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