A national survey was conducted at the end of June 2003 to study and assess the insurance market and services in Bulgaria. The survey was representative of the country's adult population. The size of the two-stage cluster sample was N=1057 covering the whole territory of the country. Information was collected by the method of the face-to-face in-home interview.
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Keywords: Jihad; Islamic terrorism; Central Asia
The terrorist attack in Stockholm on April 7th was perpetrated by a citizen of Uzbekistan. Previously, on April 3rd an ethnic Uzbek from Kyrgyzstan holding Russian citizenship conducted an attack on the subway in Saint Petersburg. These attacks were preceded by other large scale terrorist attacks conducted by Islamic radicals from Central Asia within the last 12 months. It shows the rising potential of radical Islamic groups and organisations originating from the countries of the region. Within Central Asia itself the level of the terrorist threat is low, owing to mass surveillance and widespread persecution of independent Islamic groups by the au- thoritarian regimes of regional states. These actions, however, led to radicalisation of individ- uals and entire groups, followed by them leaving the country to join Islamic terrorist organisations abroad (previously in Afghanistan and Pakistan, currently in Syria and Iraq). During the last decade, Islamic radicals from Central Asia were engaged in terrorist activities worldwide – from the USA, through Afghanistan, Pakistan and Syria, to Turkey and countries of the European Union. The trend of radicalised individuals migrating outside of Central Asia will most likely increase in the future, due to demographic pressures in the region, rising authoritarian tendencies and the scale of persecution. Therefore, the terrorist threats arising for European Union from the radical Islamic militants from Central Asia will probably also increase.
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Keywords: Iraq; Kurds; independence; Middle East
Regardless of whether the referendum on Iraqi Kurdistan’s independence takes place as planned on 25 September, its result is known: most Iraqi Kurds will vote in favour of independence. Depending on how the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) uses the result, a negative scenario—the outbreak of violence and further disintegration of Iraq—is still more probable than a positive one that would lead to incremental, peaceful negotiations with the central authorities in Baghdad on greater Kurdish independence. The pressure from regional allies of the Kurds, the U.S., EU, and the UN, seems to be intense enough to stop the Iraqi Kurds from unilaterally declaring independence even if they go ahead with the referendum.
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Keywords: Hungary; Viktor Orbán; Central Europe
Hungarian authorities see Donald Trump’s presidency as confirmation that the overall international situation is evolving in a direction it foresees. That may result in Hungary increasing its foreign policy activity, although its interests and Poland’s will increasingly differ. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s vision of the EU is of a bloc based on the French-German tandem and independent military capabilities. Further, the Visegrad Group would constitute one of several economically competing European regions. Orbán also expects the U.S. to try to normalise relations with Russia and aims for Hungary to take a leading role in shaping EU policy towards its eastern neighbour.
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Keywords: BiH; judiciary; justice; law; human rights; independence of judiciary; discrimination; hate speech; transitional justice; minorities; war crimes; witness protection; sexual violence; human trafficking; evaluation; recommendations;
Since its inception in 1948, with the creation of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, international human rights regime was based on traditional mechanisms of protection of rights developed by the United Nations (UN), which gave a significant role to the states. Namely, the states are primary actors not only in the international processes of implementation and monitoring of human rights but also in guaranteeing the rights and running the process of self-monitoring and reporting. In the absence of capacities of the UN bodies to directly monitor the human rights situation in all Member States, when member states fail to be sufficiently self-critical, NGOs, whose fundamental role is to monitor and report on human rights protection and advocate for better protection thereof by local government institutions and international organizations, play an important role. Efficient protection of human rights requires a strong engagement of civil society at both, national and international levels, as civil society organizations are the only entities that continuously monitor the situation on the ground and work on raising awareness about existing rights and call the decision makers for accountability in case of their violation. In this way, the United Nations (UN) revised the process of monitoring and reporting on human rights in 2008 by creating the Universal Periodical Review (UPR) as the new international instrument in fight for human rights, which the UN Human Rights Council applies in order to monitor condition of human rights in member states. Recognizing the importance of the Universal Periodic Review (UPR) as a new international instrument for fight for human rights, as well as the new role non-governmental organizations got, the Justice Network in Bosnia and Herzegovina adopted the UPR as a tool in their work already in April 2010. After consultations between the members, the Justice Network joined the UPR process through the development of UPR recommendations for BiH, which were presented by a three-member Delegation of the Justice Network on the 14th session of the UN Council for Human Rights held on 11 June 2010 in Geneva. In addition to the preparation of recommendations and presentation thereof in Geneva, the Justice Network organized and delivered training on this mechanism for representatives of civil society and the justice sector. Also, two roundtables were organized for the same target group, one in Sarajevo and one in Banja Luka, in which conclusions have been defined for more effective implementation of UPR recommendations in the BiH judiciary. Starting from these conclusions, during strategic planinng activities of the Network in 2010 it was agreed that monitoring and reporting on human rights condition in domestic and international institutions as their primary form of action. In this way, Justice Network - which brings together 57 non-governmental organizations whose primary objective is to support government institutions in strengthening the efficiency, independence and accountability of the judicial system of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as quality information, education and advocating for the interests of citizens in the justice sector - has identified monitoring and reporting on human rights as an essential mechanism by which it seeks to realize its goals. Development of judicial system in BiH, which effectively protects human rights and promotes the rule of law is not possible without a detailed and continuous evaluation of the system for monitoring of compliance of national legislation with international standards. To this end, a Working Group responsible for development of a “Universal Periodic Review” (UPR) on the situation of human rights in Bosnia and Herzegovina was established, which conducts monitoring of justice sector institutions responsible for implementation of the recommendations from UPR since 2010, which Bosnia and Herzegovina assumed in the field of justice. Representatives of the Association for Democratic Initiatives, the Center for Information and Legal Aid of Zvornik, the Human Rights Centre of the University of Sarajevo, the Association of Prosecutors of FB&H, the Association of associates and advisers in the courts and prosecutor offices in BiH, the BiH Association of Judges, and the Association “Women to Women” have worked jointly on monitoring the implementation of recommendations of the UN Council for Human Rights in judicial sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina. As a result of this work a publication titled Human Rights and Judiciary in Bosnia and Herzegovina: A report on implementation of the recommendations for justice sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina from the Universal Periodic Review of the UN Human Rights Council (2011 - 2012) was developed for second time. The Report on Human Rights and Judiciary in Bosnia and Herzegovina is a continuation of work on the application UPR mechanism, but at the same time, it is also a unique publication of this kind. The aim of publishing of this report is to give an insight into the process of implementation of recommendations issued by the UN Council for Human Rights, or by its member states, which were created in a process of Universal Periodic Review (UPR). Monitoring of implementation of the UPR recommendations by the members of the Justice Network focuses on the judicial system, and includes only those recommendations that have been identified as crucial for improving the justice sector in BiH. In addition to making a general review of protection of human rights through the judiciary, the authors also identified recommendations for decision makers aimed at encouraging the authorities to apply UPR recommendations in justice sector more efficiently and promptly in order to fulfill the assumed commitments of Bosnia and Herzegovina towards the international community and its citizens. We hope that this report will be a useful source of information not only to judiciary but also to NGO sector, and we hope it will initiate and develop the interest of civil society organizations in taking concrete actions in the field of justice. Justice Network will certainly continue its activities aimed at monitoring of human rights protection in the justice sector, and will seek to develop further activities related to reporting to local government institutions and international organizations within the Universal Periodical Review (UPR). Taking as a basis the results of monitoring of the human rights situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina as evidenced in the Report, the Justice Network will implement advocacy activities, and also encourage activities that allow a stronger influence of citizens through civil society organizations in the process of making of new decisions and implementation of existing regulations in the field of justice. In this way, the Justice Network will give its contribution in encouraging an active participation of its members and civil society in the development of an independent, efficient, accountable and lawful actions of the judiciary in Bosnia and Herzegovina. We use this opportunity to thank all those who were involved in the preparation of analyses and development of this publication. Special thanks goes to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which provides technical support to the BiH Justice Network and its members through the Justice Sector Development Project II (JSDP II).
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Keywords: Russia; Syria
Foreign fighters have been successfully utilised by Russia during the conflict in Ukraine, where they formed a key element of the separatist forces. Due to Russia’s escalating involvement in Syria, and its Ukraine-based foreign fighters’ often and vocally professed desire to fight against the Islamic State, one could assume that Moscow, while officially denying rumours of being involved in ground operations in Syria, may not shy away from deploying such fighters there. However, this will carry risks far greater than those in Ukraine, and could yield negative consequences for Russia.
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Keywords: NATO; StratCom; practices; NATO countries; 2015; politics; military; evaluation;
The findings consist of analysis of the questionnaire results filled in by 11 NATO nations and structured interviews with 6 NATO nations during the first half of 2015.
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Keywords: Nord Stream 2
In recent weeks the US has stepped up its campaign against the Nord Stream 2 project. Washington is putting pressure on Berlin to withdraw its support for the project, and is threatening to use increasingly powerful measures, including sanctions on European companies involved in the gas pipeline’s implementation. The growing dispute between the US and Germany over Nord Stream 2 has become an element of the broader controversy surrounding the project in the EU and is leading to deeper divisions between the member states. It has brought to the fore the differences in approaches to gas cooperation with Russia as well as approaches to the development of Russia’s strategic gas pipeline projects. While Germany, but also Austria, the Netherlands and a number of other countries, limit their approach to commercial issues, Poland, the Baltic States, Denmark and the US also see it as having security implications which do not only relate to energy. The conflict over Nord Stream 2 is also part of the game concerning the future shape of the gas market in Europe, and the roles played by individual external suppliers (mainly Russia, but also to an increasing extent the US) and companies such as Gazprom and its European partners. The Nord Stream 2 case has become a major challenge of the EU’s cohesion and its relations with the US and Russia.
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Keywords: North Macedonia; EU integration; chapter 27; Environment and climate change; environmental protection; environmental policy; waste management; air quality; water quality; industrial pollution; noise; forestry; chemicals;
Macedonia’s progress under Chapter 27 of the EU Acquis – Environment and climate change has been one of the slowest since the EC started reporting about the reform processes in the potential candidates and candidates’ member states. The issues in the environmental sector have not been high on the Macedonian government’s agenda due to many other problems taking time and money such as public administration and judicial reforms, police reform, human rights, non-majority communities’ rights etc., which usually take priority over the environment. Although as a candidate for membership Macedonia is obliged to work on reforms in every chapter including this one. Some progress has been made in certain areas such as transposing the acquis into national legislation, in particular on waste management or chemicals. However there is much left to be done, and the general observation is that, the most painful and expensive reforms are yet to be implemented. As it was stated in the last progress report from 2012: considerable efforts are required on awareness-raising, setting a more strategic approach for the country, aligning with and implanting EU climate acquis… Administrative capacity at both central and local levels needs to be strengthened. Investments need to be increased, especially in the waste and water sectors. Overall, preparations in the field of the environment are moderately advanced while in the field of climate change remain at an early stage.
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Keywords: Bosnia and Herzegovina; federalism; fiscal policy; fiscal federalism; fiscal decentralization; government; budget; public debt; credit rating;
In this article the author discusses theoretical framework of fiscal federalism through his four keys determinants: assignment of functions and expenditures, public revenue assignment, intergovernmental transfers and borrowing. Fiscal federalism deals with these issues which are closely related with fiscal decentralization. Guided by these determinants, the author applied them to a complex state structure in BiH. Fiscal federalism in BiH is intriguing question having in mind current political relations and constitutional order of the state. After detailed analysis, the five striking conclusions drawn by the author are: 1. stronger central government position – current position of central government is not strong enough to lead quality macroeconomic management. One of author's suggestions is transfer of competences from entities to central government in the field of direct taxes. This transfer would enable the principle of costeffectiveness to be achieved; 2. independent fiscal council – fiscal council has two main disadvantages: a) political influence b) insufficient coordination of all levels of government. Fiscal council should be only a financial institution isolated from political influence and should represent a connection between all levels of government including cantons and municipalities; 3. more systematic use of intergovernmental transfers – intergovernmental transfers are important instrument for achieving fiscal equity in fiscal federalism, but in BiH these transfers need to be more systematic as the disparity in the development of regions becomes greater 4. Development budget – condition sine qua non – budgets of all government in BiH should be oriented to capital investments not only to fund a complex administration 5. borrowing – according to an official report, status of public debt is not negative but those responsible must keep in mind the rise in interest rates on domestic debt, poor credit ratings and currency risk for non-euro loans.
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Keywords: Central Asia; Tajikistan crisis; food-energy-water; Europe's energy security; energy supplies; food crisis; water; gas; oil;
Most of the spotlight on Central Asia continues to be on its potential role in guaranteeing Europe’s energy security by helping to diversify its energy supplies. This legitimate although increasingly exclusive focus risks overshadowing one of the most urgent issues that the region’s populations face: food security. Food security refers here to both physical and economical access to food and food supplies. To be sure, food security in Central Asia is not to be understood as a standalone challenge. The current food crisis in the region cannot be understood unless located in the broader nexus that encompasses food, water and, indeed, energy (gas and oil). It is only by understanding how the three dimensions of this nexus are entangled that a long-term, concerted and sustained strategy can be developed and applied.
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Keywords: Nord Stream 2; European Union; EU gas directive; Russia’s political goals; gas supply;
The amended EU gas directive (GD) might impede the use of Nord Stream 2 in Gazprom’s monopolistic practices and for Russia’s political goals; however, the interpretation and implementation of the directive still remain crucial parts of the puzzle. This creates a challenge for Poland to ensure that Germany, the country responsible for overseeing Nord Stream 2 in the EU, abides by the directive’s provisions.
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Keywords: Chechnya; Russian Federation; North Caucasus region; Chechen-Russian relations; Vladimir Putin;
The actions of the head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, towards the neighbouring republics of the Russian Federation have increased tensions in the North Caucasus region. The Russian authorities tolerate Kadyrov’s policy because of the significance of Chechnya to Russian politics in the Middle East and the fight against terrorism. Kadyrov remains loyal to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is the most important guarantor of the Chechen leader’s position. However, in the long run, once Putin leaves office, the Chechen Republic may attempt to gain independence.
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Keywords: Italy; government coalition; government crisis; European elections; conflict within the coalition;
The Italian political spectrum has been destabilised by the European election results. The huge win for the League and the poor result of the Five Star Movement (M5S) has led to conflict within the coalition. The League’s leader, Matteo Salvini, is trying to impose his party’s programme on the government. However, its proposals run counter to the European Commission’s (EC) expectations. The EC has warned Italy it may enact the excessive deficit procedure (EDP) to hold the country’s budget in line. Salvini’s hardline position, though, increases the risk of a government collapse and early parliamentary elections.
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Keywords: Germany; Social Democratic Party; Bavarian elections; European Parliamentary elections;
The results of last year’s elections in Bavaria and Hesse showed that the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) continued to fall in polls. Surveys conducted ahead of the elections to the European Parliament and landtags indicate a further weakening of its position. The grouping faces a lengthy process of rebuilding support which, requires programme changes. The SPD’s future course could prove negative for Poland, as Warsaw and the party have different visions of the EU and relations with Russia.
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Keywords: United States; Hungary; defence cooperation; US-Hungary cooperation; foreign policy; NATO;
Strengthening defence cooperation with the U.S. is intended to give Hungary greater freedom in foreign policy. However, the course and results of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Budapest in February indicated that tensions have not been eliminated from bilateral relations. Hungary’s undermining of NATO political unity, including with regard to Ukraine, could be costly for the country in the long run and may have a negative effect on bilateral economic cooperation with the U.S.
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Keywords: Russian Federation; Central Asia; foreign policy; regional security; regional cooperation;
Central Asia is one of the most important regions in Russian foreign policy. The succession of power in Kazakhstan and other countries in the region are used by Russia to increase political pressure. China’s actions are a challenge for Russian policy and lead to an increase in activity in the area of regional security. This may force Russia to put more resources in its Central Asia policy but that will not reduce its activity in other regions in the EU’s neighbourhood.
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Keywords: Belarus; presidential elections; presidential campaign; President Alexander Lukashenka; future of relations between the EU and Belarus; European Neighbourhood Policy; Eastern Partnership programme;
The presidential election in Belarus, scheduled for 11 October, will be won by Alexander Lukashenka, who has held the position for 21 years. Although the outcome of the election is certain, how they are conducted will affect the future of relations between the European Union and Belarus. After the election, the EU countries should start a discussion on the further development of relations with Belarus, such as within the framework of the ongoing revision of European Neighbourhood Policy and Eastern Partnership programme.
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Keywords: Russian Federation; Russia’s military presence in Syria; operation Alawistan; President Bashar al-Assad; fight against Islamic State;
Russia’s deployment of troops to Syria might become a turning point for the regime in Damascus, the regional balance of power and Western calculations. With its forces already active in Syria, the Russians might serve to defend cities that are the traditional bastions of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad but which are threatened by rebel offensives from mostly Islamist groups. Russia’s military presence in Syria serves its much broader regional and international goals. However, if the West were to drop its demand for Assad’s removal and include Russia in the coalition against the Islamic State the result might hold more negative implications for the situation there, as well as outside Syria.
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Keywords: ethnic and social relations; social structures; professional elites; Educational system; Transylvanian education; 1918-1948;
This paper proposes to offer the statistical presentation of the transylvanian educational system and culture-generating institutions between 1918 and 1948, relying primarily on the hitherto published statistical summaries, censuses, annals, and studies, without carrying out any fundamental research or analysis. The paper fits into the first phase of a larger European comparative research project supported by the European Research Council. The documentation needed for the detailed analyses in the second phase is collected by other colleagues working on this research. Hopefully, their findings will be published in the near future.
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