Western Balkans - New Alliances, Old Suspicions and Possible Future Scenarios
Western Balkans - New Alliances, Old Suspicions and Possible Future Scenarios

Author(s): Marko Savković
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Security and defense, EU-Approach / EU-Accession / EU-Development
Published by: ISAC - Centar za međunarodne i bezbednosne poslove
Keywords: Western Balkans; defense; cooperation; armaments and military equipment; EU; NATO
Summary/Abstract: The study covers four key processes: the rise of defence expenditures across the Western Balkans; the emergence of new regional initiatives and bilateral arrangements, such as the Tirana Declaration and the Serbia–Hungary defence cooperation agreement; the persistent lack of trust among regional actors; and the resulting security dilemma. Particular attention is devoted to arms procurement, NATO’s requirements (including the proposed 5% GDP defence spending target by 2035) and EU initiatives (‘Defence Readiness’ and SAFE), as well as the long‑standing issue of limited transparency. Three scenarios for the region are elaborated – ‘integration’, ‘fragmentation’, and ‘controlled competition’ – together with policy recommendations.

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